Don't Kill Me

Chapter 10
Analyzing
Categorical
Variables and
Interpreting
Research
Copyright © 2017, 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 1

Chapter 10 Topics
• Explore associations between categorical

variables
• Discuss important considerations when
reading research papers

Section 10.1
Monika Wisniewska. Shutterstock
THE BASIC INGREDIENTS FOR TESTING

WITH CATEGORICAL VARIABLES
• Identify the Basic Ingredients for Testing with
Categorical Variables

Introductory Example: Fair Die
Suppose we wanted to determine if a standard 6-sided
die was fair. In a perfect world, if the die was fair, the
distribution of outcomes would look like this:
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We roll a die 60 times and record the number of spots.
The outcomes are shown in the table and graph below.
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We can see that our outcomes were not exactly
what we would expect in a perfect world. We
will use a statistic, called the chi-square statistic,
to compare the real outcomes with the
expected outcomes. We use the chi-square
distribution to find p-values that tell us whether
we should be suspicious that our outcomes are
not matching our expectations.
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Contingency Table
(Two-Way Table)
• Summary table that displays frequencies for

outcomes when two categorical variables are
analyzed
• Even though there are numbers in the table,
these numbers are summaries of variables
whose values are categories.
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Example: Contingency Table
A sample of US adults and members of the American
Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
were asked by the Pew Poll, “Is it safe to eat genetically
modified foods?” The results are shown in the
contingency table. (We assumed the sample size was
100 for each group.)
US Adults AAAS
Scientists
Yes 37 88
No 63 12
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Expected Counts
The expected counts are the numbers of
observations we would see in each cell of the
contingency table if the null hypothesis were
true.
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Example: Expected Counts
In our previous example of the fair die, if the die
is rolled 60 times, we would expect 10 of each
outcome. The table below shows the expected
counts and the observed counts from the
experiment.
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Example: Finding Expected Counts
In the Pew Research poll, there are two categorical
variables: Background (US Adult or scientist) and Belief
in Safety of GMO (Yes/No). What counts should we
expect if these variables are truly not related to each
other?
US Adults AAAS
Scientists
Yes 37 88
No 63 12
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Starting with the GMO (Yes/No) variable:
125/200 (0.625) of the sample said “Yes” and
75/200 (0.375) of the sample said “No.”
If GMO (Yes/No) is independent of background,

then we should expect the same percentage of
US adults and AAAS scientists to say “Yes” and
the same percentage to say “No.”
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There were 100 US Adults in the sample, so we
expect 0.625(100) = 62.5 to say “Yes” and
0.375(100) = 37.5 to say “No.”
Since the sample size of AAAS Scientists in the

survey is the same as that of the US adults (100
in each group), so we expect the same numbers
to say “Yes” and “No” as the US Adults.
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Contingency Table Showing Observed
and Expected Counts
The table below shows the actual counts and

the expected counts (in parentheses):
US Adults AAAS Total

Scientists
Yes 37 (62.5) 88 (62.5) 125
No 63 (37.5) 12 (37.5) 75
Total 100 100 200
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Notes about Expected Counts
In this example we started with the GMO variable. We could
also have started with the background variable and computed
the expected counts using the background percentages. For
example, 50% of the sample were AAAS Scientists, so we would
expect 50% of those saying “Yes” to be scientists. If the expected
counts are computed this way, the results are exactly the same.
The formula (row total)×  column total
Expected count for a cell =
grand total
can also be used to compute the expected counts, but in practice
the expected counts are computed using technology.
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The Chi-Square Statistic
The chi-square statistic measures the amount
that our expected counts differ from our
observed counts. The formula for the chi-square
statistic is (O  E ) 2
X 
2
cells E
where O is the observed count in each cell, E is
the expected count in each cell, and  means to
add the results in each cell.
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Example: Chi-Square Statistic
In our GMO example,
(37 - 62.5) 2
(88 - 62.5) 2
(63- 37.5) 2
(12 - 37.5) 2
X2 = + + +
62.5 62.5 37.5 37.5
X = 55.488
2
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Finding the P-Value for the
Chi-Square Statistic
• The p-value is found using the chi-square
distribution.
• The chi-square distribution has only positive values
for test statistics and is right skewed.
• Like the t-distribution, the shape of the chi-square
distribution depends on a number called the degrees
of freedom.
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The Chi-Square Distribution
The chi-square distribution provides a good
approximation to the sampling distribution of
the chi-square statistic only if the sample size is
large enough (if each expected count is five or
higher).
In practice, technology is used to compute the
chi-square statistic and the accompanying
p-value.
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GMO Example: Conclusion
Chi-square statistic:
55.488
p-value: < 0.0001
US Adults and AAAS
scientists differ in their
support of GMO foods.
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Section 10.2 Amy Walters. Shutterstock
CHI-SQUARE TESTS FOR ASSOCIATIONS

BETWEEN CATEGORICAL VARIABLES
• Use the Chi-Square Test to Determine Whether
there is an Association between Two Categorical
Variables
Two Tests for Association
There are two tests to determine whether two
categorical variables are associated.
Which test you use depends on how the data

were collected.
Both methods use two-way tables to display

data. Both are conducted in similar ways.
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Test of Homogeneity
• Collect two (or more) independent samples,
one from each population.
• Each object sampled has a categorical value
that is recorded.
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Test of Homogeneity
Example: Collect a random sample of men and a
random sample of women. Ask each person
sampled if they agree that global warming is a
serious problem.
In this example we have two samples: one

categorical response variable (opinion) and one
categorical grouping variable (gender).
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Test of Independence
• Collect only one sample.
• For objects in the sample we record two
categorical response variables.
Example: Collect a large sample of people and

record their marital status and income.
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Similarities in the Two Approaches
• In both situations we are interested in
knowing whether the two categorical
variables are related or unrelated.
• Use the same chi-square test statistic and the
same chi-square distribution to find the
p-value.
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Example:
Homogeneity or Independence?
A polling organization asks a random sample of
people for their party affiliation (Democrat,
Republican, or other) and whether they think
the minimum wage should be raised. If the
organization wanted to test whether party
affiliation and opinion on minimum wage are
associated, would this be a test of homogeneity
or independence?
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Example:
This is a test of independence because only one

sample was collected and two categorical
variables (party affiliation and opinion on
minimum wage) were recorded for each
member of the sample.
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Example:
In 2013 the Pew Organization surveyed adults in

eight countries that had legalized same-sex
marriage, asking the question, “Should
homosexuality be accepted?” If the
organization wanted to investigate whether
country of origin and opinion are associated,
would this be a test of homogeneity or
independence?
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Example:
This is an example of a test of homogeneity.

Eight independent samples are collected (a
sample from each of eight countries) and a
single categorical variable is recorded for each
member of the sample (the response to the
question “ Should homosexuality be
accepted?”).
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Tests of Homogeneity and
Independence
1. Hypothesize
H0: There is no association between the two
variables (the variables are independent).
Ha: There is an association between the two
variables (the variables are not independent).
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Independence
2. Prepare
• Random samples
• Independent samples and observations
• Large samples: The expected counts must be
five or more in each cell of the table.
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Independence
3. Compute to Compare
Test statistic is
(O - E) 2
X =S2
E
Degrees of freedom = (#rows – 1)(#columns – 1)
p-value comes from the X2 distribution.
Technology can be used to compute the test

statistic and p-value.
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Independence
4. Interpret
If the p-value is less than or equal to the
significance level, we reject H0 and conclude
there is an association between the variables.
Otherwise we do not reject H0 and we cannot
conclude there is an association between the
variables.
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Example: Republican Views on Global
Warming
The Yale Project on Climate Change investigated

views on global warming among the Republican
Party. Republicans surveyed identified
themselves as Liberal, Moderate, Conservative,
or Tea Party Republicans and also answered the
question, “Do you believe global warming is
happening?” The results are shown in the
following two-way table.
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Warming
1. Is this a test of homogeneity or
independence?
2. Run a test to see if there is an association
between type of Republican and opinion.
3. The report on this survey is titled “Not All
Republicans Think Alike about Global
Warming.” Do the results of the hypothesis
test support this headline?
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Liberal Moderate Conservative Tea Party
Republican Republican Republican Republican
Yes 72 335 483 120
No 34 205 788 292
“Do you believe global warming is happening?”
1. Hypothesize
H0: Republican type and opinion are independent.
Ha: Republican type and opinion are not independent.
2. Prepare Samples are random and independent. Check on
the technology output that all expected counts are greater
than or equal to 5.
StatCrunch: Stats > Table > Contingency > with summary

All expected counts (in
parentheses) are
greater than or equal
to 5.
3. Compute to
Compare
Test statistic:
X2 = 151.59
p-value: < 0.0001
4. Interpret
Reject H0. There is an
association between
type of Republican and
opinion.

Warming
This was a test of independence. There is an

association between Republican type and
opinion. The study supports the headline, “Not
all Republicans Think Alike about Global
Warming.”
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To Run a Test of Independence Using a
TI-84 Calculator
To run a test of independence on the TI-84 calculator:
1. Enter your data into a Matrix.

2. Push STAT > TESTS then select option X2 Test.
3. Press Calculate. The X2 test statistic and p-value
will be displayed.
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Example:
Education and Marital Status
Does a person’s educational level affect his or

her decision about marrying? A sample of 665
people was taken. Their marital status and
educational level were recorded. The data is
shown in the table. Are the variables marital
status and educational level independent?
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The Data:
College or HS Less HS
higher
Divorced 15 59 10
Married 98 240 70
Single 27 68 17
Widow/er 3 30 28
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Example:
1. Hypothesize
H0: Marital status and educational level are
independent.
Ha: Marital status and educational level are associated.
2. Prepare We use technology to compute the test

statistic, p-value, and expected counts. We need to
check that the expected counts are all five or more.
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All expected counts (in
parentheses) are greater than
or equal to 5.
3. Compute to Compare
Test statistic: X2=39.97
p-value: p<0.0001

Example:
4. Interpret
We reject H0 because the p-value is small.
Marital status and educational level are
associated.
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Drawback of the Chi-Square Test
The chi-square test reveals only if two variables
are associated, not how they are associated.
When both categorical variables only have two

categories, the data can be analyzed using a
two-proportion z-test instead which gives more
information on how the variables are associated.
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Example: AIDS Vaccine
In a study of a potential AIDS vaccine, 8200 volunteers were
randomly assigned to receive a vaccine against AIDS and another
8200 to receive a placebo. The number in each group who had
contracted AIDS at the end of 3 years was recorded. The data is
shown in the following table.
Vaccine No Vaccine Total

AIDS 51 74 125
No AIDS 8149 8126 16275
Total 8200 8200 16400
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A Chi-square test could be used to determine if
vaccine and AIDS are independent. The
conclusion of this test could tell us there is an
association between the variables but not how
they are associated. What the researchers want
to know is if the vaccine is effective.
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Because both categorical variables Vaccine and
AIDS have only 2 outcomes (yes/no), the data
can be analyzed using a two-proportion z-test.
By testing the hypotheses:
H0: propvaccine = propplacebo

Ha: propvaccine < propplacebo
the researchers can determine the direction of
the effect; in other words, whether the vaccine
was effective.
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Section 10.3
READING RESEARCH PAPERS
• Discuss Methods to Critically Evaluate Published

Research

Some Guiding Principles
1. Pay attention to how randomness is used.
2. Don’t rely solely on the conclusions of any
single paper.
3. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary
evidence.
4. Be wary of conclusions based on very
complex statistical or mathematical models.
5. Stick to peer-reviewed journals.
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Random vs. Non-Random Assignment
Randomness in study design makes certain

inferences possible and others not possible.

Reading Abstracts
An abstract is a short paragraph at the beginning
of a research article that described its basic
findings. It often includes a description of:
• The methods used in the study
• The results of the study
• The conclusions of the researchers
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Evaluating Abstracts
When reading an abstract, answer these
questions:
1. What is the research question that the
investigators are trying to to answer?
2. What is their answer to the research
question?
3. What were the methods they used to collect
data?
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Evaluating Abstracts
4. Is the conclusion appropriate for the
methods used to collect data?
5. To what population do the conclusions apply?
6. Have the results been replicated in other
articles? Are the results consistent with what
other researchers have suggested?
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Beware of Data Dredging
Data Dredging: the practice of stating a
hypothesis after first looking at the data. This
makes it more likely to mistakenly reject the null
hypothesis. If we first look at the test statistic to
decide what the hypothesis should be we are
rigging the system in favor of the alternative
hypothesis.
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Beware of Publication Bias
Publication Bias – most scientific and medical
journals prefer to publish “positive” findings –
one in which the null hypothesis is rejected. If a
journal favors positive findings over negative
findings, then we will only read studies that find
a drug works (for example), even though the
vast majority of researchers came to the
opposite conclusion (with unpublished studies).
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Beware of Profit Motive
Much statistical research is now paid for by
corporations that hope their products make life
better for people. Sometimes the corporation
funding the research can influence whether or
not results get published. Always evaluate the
methods of the study used and decide whether
those methods are sound.
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Beware of the Media
Media often use “catchy” headlines that do not
always capture the true spirit of the study. The
most common problem is that the headlines
often suggest a cause-and-effect relationship
even though such a conclusion is not supported
by the data.
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Clinical vs. Statistical Significance
An outcome of an experiment or study that is
large enough to have a real effect on people’s
health or lifestyle is said to have clinical
significance. Sometimes researchers discover
that a treatment is statistically significant
(meaning the outcome is too large to be due to
chance) but too small to be meaningful (so it is
not clinically significant).
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Example:
Clinically vs. Statistically Significant
A rare disease affects only one person in 10

million. A controlled experiment finds that a
new drug “significantly reduces your risk of
getting this disease.” Given that the disease is
so rare, is it worth producing the drug to lower
your chance of getting the disease from one in
10 million to one in 20 million? This is a case
where the treatment may not be clinically
significant.
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Chapter 10

Copyright © 2017, 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 1

• Explore associations between categorical

Copyright © 2017, 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 2

THE BASIC INGREDIENTS FOR TESTING

Copyright © 2017, 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 3

• Summary table that displays frequencies for

If GMO (Yes/No) is independent of background,

Since the sample size of AAAS Scientists in the

The table below shows the actual counts and

US Adults AAAS Total

CHI-SQUARE TESTS FOR ASSOCIATIONS

Which test you use depends on how the data

Both methods use two-way tables to display

In this example we have two samples: one

Example: Collect a large sample of people and

This is a test of independence because only one

In 2013 the Pew Organization surveyed adults in

This is an example of a test of homogeneity.

Technology can be used to compute the test

The Yale Project on Climate Change investigated

“Do you believe global warming is happening?”

Copyright © 2017, 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 37

Copyright © 2017, 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 39

This was a test of independence. There is an

1. Enter your data into a Matrix.

Does a person’s educational level affect his or

2. Prepare We use technology to compute the test

Copyright © 2017, 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 45

When both categorical variables only have two

Vaccine No Vaccine Total

H0: propvaccine = propplacebo

READING RESEARCH PAPERS

• Discuss Methods to Critically Evaluate Published

Copyright © 2017, 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 51

Randomness in study design makes certain

Copyright © 2017, 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 53

A rare disease affects only one person in 10

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