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Section A -Group 2
Abdullah Shahab
Aditya Kant Pathak
Ashwin Krishna M
Mohit Sehrawat
Ritushree Das
Sanchita
Metabical vs Current weight loss options
Dosage (4 weeks
Approach 1 4.11
dosage)
Dose
Year Potential market (in mn) Dose 2 Dose 3 Total demand (mn)
1
2008 0.41 0.41 0.25 0.05 0.71
2009 0.21 0.21 0.12 0.02 0.35
2010 0.21 0.21 0.12 0.02 0.35
2011 0.21 0.21 0.12 0.02 0.35
2012 0.21 0.21 0.12 0.02 0.35
Net 1.23 1.23 0.74 0.15 2.12
Highlights
• Considering
• 34% of total population*35% who were actively trying to lose weight*15%
who were comfortable with weight loss drugs = 4.11 mn
• CAGR of 34% was taken for population estimation of 25-30 BMI people
Forecasting method 2
Dosage (4 weeks
Approach 2 3.28
dosage)
Dose
Year Potential market (in mn) Dose 2 Dose 3 Total demand (mn)
1
2008 0.33 0.33 0.20 0.04 0.56
2009 0.16 0.16 0.10 0.02 0.28
2010 0.16 0.16 0.10 0.02 0.28
2011 0.16 0.16 0.10 0.02 0.28
2012 0.16 0.16 0.10 0.02 0.28
Net 0.99 0.99 0.59 0.12 1.69
Highlights
• Considering
• 34% of total population*35% who were actively trying to lose weight*12%
who were ready to immediately go to healthcare provider = 3.28 mn
Forecasting method 3
Dosage (4 weeks
Approach 3 4.3
dosage)
Dose
Year Potential market (in mn) Dose 2 Dose 3 Total demand (mn)
1
2008 1.29 1.29 0.77 0.15 2.22
2009 0.22 0.22 0.13 0.03 0.37
2010 0.22 0.22 0.13 0.03 0.37
2011 0.22 0.22 0.13 0.03 0.37
2012 0.22 0.22 0.13 0.03 0.37
Net 2.15 2.15 1.29 0.26 3.70
Highlights
• Considering
• Ideal target group of 4.3 mn
Advantage/Disadvantage of demand forecast
methods
DEMAND FORECAST
MODEL1 MODEL 2 MODEL 3
Population -> 2.12 mn 1.69 mn 3.70 mn
SALES ($ 75/Pack) $159 mn $127 mn $277 mn
SALES ($ 125/Pack) $265 mn $212 mn $462 mn
SALES ($ 150/Pack) $318 mn $254 mn $555 mn
The ROI is greater than 5% only in the case where the price is $150/pack and the ideal
target group is selected.
Hence we recommend $150/pack with a pack size of 4 week because Ideal target
market is willing to pay this price. With any increase of pack size to 6 or 12, CSP might
even lose this ideal target market.
SWOT Analysis (For Forecast 3)
Strength Weakness
1. FDA approved 1. Higher cost. ~150
2. Lesser side effect 2. BMI range 25-30 only
3. 1 pill per day 3. New drug hence less customer trust
4. 12 week course
Opportunities Threats
1. Larger potential 1. Well established brands in the market
target 2. Herbal alternatives
2. Result oriented
THANK YOU