IABSE 2019 Symposium: Towards a Resilient Built Environment Risk and Asset

Management

Overview on
Performance
Predictive Models –
Application to Bridge
Management Systems
Monica Santamaria, João Fernandes,
José C. Matos
www.isise.net

2019-03-28
Overview on Performance Predictive Models – Application to
Monica Santamaría et al | 2
Bridge Management Systems

BRIDGE MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS (BMS)

ASCE Report 2013  607380 bridges with an average of 42 years

11% structural problems; yearly annual maintenance and repair costs
around 12 billion dollars

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Overview on Performance Predictive Models – Application to
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Bridge Management Systems

BRIDGE MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

Serviceability Maintenance, repair Cost efficient use of

and safety and rehabilitation financial resources
activities

Performance
Predictive Models

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Overview on Performance Predictive Models – Application to
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Bridge Management Systems

IABMAS BRIDGE MANAGEMENT COMMITTEE  Report on the BMS

around the world: 2010, 2012, 2014

• Questionnaires on 25 BMS
• 18 countries
• Managing 1’000.000 assets


Benefit from an up-to-date view of the capabilities of each BMS

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Overview on Performance Predictive Models – Application to
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Bridge Management Systems

Questionnaires:
• Basic general information
• Basic Inventory information
• Inspection information  commonly relies on visual inspections; the
results are qualitative indicators

[1]
• Intervention information
• Prediction information  19 could predict deterioration, among
which 12 were using probabilistic methods

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Overview on Performance Predictive Models – Application to
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Bridge Management Systems

PHYSICAL MODELS
e.g. German Bridge Management System (GBMS)  Chloride, carbonation
and corrosion models
Austrian BMS: LeCIE_tool (in development)  Remaining service life of existing

Recommendations: fib Bulletin 34, 65, 76 concrete bridges based on

chloride- and carbonation-


−1
induced corrosion models
𝑥𝑐 𝑡 = 2 𝑘𝑒 𝑘𝑐 𝑅𝑁𝐴𝐶,0 𝐶𝑠 𝑡 𝑊(𝑡) [2]

 Consider particular phenomena

causing deterioration

High sensitivity in the results when

slightly modifying the input of
crucial parameters

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Overview on Performance Predictive Models – Application to
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Bridge Management Systems

REGRESSION MODELS
e.g. Korean Road Maintenance Business System  Regression of historical
(KRMBS) condition state data

 Establish a relationship between two or

more variables: bridge condition and
factors affecting their deterioration
 Simplest deterioration model

[3] • Linear regression

• Non-linear regression
disregard the uncertainty involved on the variables
• Straight line extrapolation
beyond the bounds of the data for long time
• Curve fitting techniques
periods they can contain high levels of inaccuracy

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Overview on Performance Predictive Models – Application to
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Bridge Management Systems

MARKOV MODELS
IABMAS Report: 8 apply Markov models
Stochastic model  treat the degradation as one or more random variables to
capture the uncertainty and randomness of the process

𝑃11 𝑃12 ⋯ 𝑃1𝑁  Transition Probability Matrix (TPM):

𝑃 𝑃22 ⋯ 𝑃2𝑁 Discrete Time Markov models
𝑃 = 21
⋮ ⋮ ⋱ ⋮
𝑃𝑁1 𝑃𝑁2 ⋯ 𝑃𝑁𝑁 Intensity Matrix  Continuous Time
Markov models

 Computational efficiency to manage Disregard the history of the deterioration

large amount of assets Can not incorporate effect of maintenance

 The memoryless property is actions

reasonable for network level Bridge system performance (reliability) is not

analysis addressed

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Overview on Performance Predictive Models – Application to
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Bridge Management Systems

WEIBULL SURVIVAL FUNCTIONS

AASHTOWare Bridge Management  North American System

Weibull: CS1  CS2

Markov: CS2  …


Consider the slower
deterioration rates in the early
stages (initiation).
𝛽
− 𝑡ൗ𝜂 𝑖
𝑆𝑖 𝑡 = 𝑒 𝑖 ,𝑡 > 0, 𝛽𝑖

> 0, 𝜂𝑖 > 0, 𝑖 = 7,6, … , 1

𝛽𝑖 is the shape parameter of the Weibull
function
[4] 𝜂𝑖 is the scale parameter of the Weibull
function

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Overview on Performance Predictive Models – Application to
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Bridge Management Systems

ADDITIONAL DETERIORATION MODELS

RELIABILITY-BASED MODELS

 Parameters associated with deterioration are

random
 Address the bridge element performance from
a quantitative evaluation
 Allow incorporation of maintenance scenarios:

[5] preventive/essential

𝛽0 𝑓𝑜𝑟 0 ≤ 𝑡 ≤ 𝑡𝐼 , The databases rarely contain information

𝛽 𝑡 =ቊ
𝛽0 − 𝛼1 𝑡 − 𝑡𝐼 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑡 > 𝑡𝐼
from the design phase (lost?); therefore in
𝛽 𝑡 is the time-dependent reliability index

𝛽0 is the initial reliability index

depth investigations are required  𝛽

𝑡𝐼 is the time of initiation of deterioration

𝛼1 is the deterioration rate of reliability index

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Overview on Performance Predictive Models – Application to
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Bridge Management Systems

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE MODELS

Learning from data and mimicking human intelligence

Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) Multilayer Percepton Network

(MLP); Ensemble of Neural Networks (ENN)
Case-based reasoning (CBR)  make use of a library of previously
solved problems, when solving a new problem (with similar physical,
environmental and operating condition)

High accuracy in the prediction results Large amount of data is required to

 Establish the relationship between the train the network.
bridge deterioration and the influencing
parameters that may affect the bridge
condition

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Overview on Performance Predictive Models – Application to
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Bridge Management Systems

BAYESIAN NETWORKS
BNs are probabilistic graphical models that combine the principles from
probability and graph theory to examine the dependency relationships
(edges) among variables (nodes) in a domain

 The CPTs can be estimated based on

historical data or expert knowledge
 Bayesian updating capabilities
 Possibility of considering influencing
factors in the degradation process

For elevated number of nodes and states

the quantification may turned slow

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Overview on Performance Predictive Models – Application to
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Bridge Management Systems

PETRI-NETS MODELS
Directed graph with two type of nodes: places and transitions, which are
connected by arcs. The tokens located in the places define the current
state of the system

Allows detailed modelling of components

Different degradation processes, different
rates; maintenance to each of them
Consider the interaction between
multiple element deterioration processes

Complex deterioration process has to be

established before calibrating the model

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Overview on Performance Predictive Models – Application to
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Bridge Management Systems

CONCLUSIONS
 Currently BMS employ physical models, regression models, Markov models and Weibull
Survival functions to predict the future condition of the bridges.
 One of the most severe limitations in the existing models is that the bridge reliability is not
being directly incorporated in bridge management, i.e. the condition ratings are
qualitative indicators highly subjected to bias (inspectors). Some maintenance activities
are carry out due to the visual appearance rather than likelihood of structural collapse.
 To address this last issue BMS have to move from condition states to a quantitative
performance indicator (reliability performance indicator)
 BMS have traditionally followed long-established and strict codified procedures, therefore
it has been a hard task to move towards different deterioration models such as AI, BNs
and PN; however, research approaches have demonstrated their potential capabilities to
predict the performance of bridges with more accuracy than widely employed Markov
models.

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Overview on Performance Predictive Models – Application to
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Bridge Management Systems

References:
[1] Mirzaei Z, Adey BT, Thompson P, Klatter L, editors. Overview of existing Bridge Management
Systems-Report by the IABMAS Bridge Management Committee (2014)2014: International
Association for Bridge Maintenance And Safety (IABMAS).
[2] Code M. First complete draft, vol. 1. fib Bulletin. 2010(55).
[3] Morcous, George Ph.D. and Hatami, Afshin Ph.D., "Developing Deterioration Models for
Nebraska Bridges" (2011). Final Reports &Technical Briefs from Mid-America Transportation
Center. 31.
[4] Johnson J. AASHTOWare BrM 5.2.3 Deterioration and LCCA. 2017 April 26, 2017.
[5] Dan M. Frangopol, Emhaidy S. Gharaibeh, Jung S. Kong, and Masaru Miyake, Optimal
Network-Level Bridge Maintenance Planning Based on Minimum Expected Cos, Transportation
Research Record 1696

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

Institute for Sustainability and Innovation in Structural Engineering Universidade do Minho