Citizen Beliefs and

Public Opinion Polls

Unit 4: American Political Ideologies and Beliefs
 POLITICAL IDEOLOGY

Liberal Open to allowing the government to flexibly expand

beyond established constraints

Conservative Following tradition and have reverence for authority

Opposes government intervention or regulation;

Libertarian conservative on fiscal or economic issues but liberal
on moral and social issues

Follows fundamental Christian ideas: love they

Populist neighbor, contribute to charity, and follow a strict
moral code

Believes strongly in workers’ rights over corporate

Progressives rights and wealthier classes should pay a much larger
percentage of taxes then they currently do
Core Values and
Attitudes
 Interpretation of American Values
Shape Attitudes Toward Government
• American citizens coming from a range of backgrounds and
experiences have widely different views of how government ought to
govern

• Even when citizens agree on the basic premise of a governing value,

they often disagree on how public officials should address it

• A linear spectrum of ideological views can be useful for discussion but

oversimplifies the array of viewpoints
- Conservative
- Liberal
• Political culture - the set of attitudes that shape political behavior; made
up through the core values of individualism, equal opportunity, free
enterprise, and the rule of law
 Individualism
• Individualism - a belief in the fundamental worth and importance of the
individual

• Individual liberties are enshrined in and protected by the Bill of Rights

• Two thoughts on individualism

• Individualism leads people to seek only his or her best interest, society
as a whole would become fractured

• Enlightened self-interest believes that one’s own interests are best

served when the good of the group is also considered

• American Individualism - seeks the freedom to fulfill one’s now promise

while also enjoying the benefits and protections of living in society
 Equality of Opportunity
• The equal protection clause of the Fourteenth Amendment
guarantees that people in similar conditions in every state will be
treated equally under the law

• The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission investigates

complaints of discrimination in job termination or refusal to hire

• Many citizens believe that every person born these days have
the same chance at greatness and wealth in America if he or she
makes the right decisions

• Many others believe that it is fine for the government to step in

and influence or redirect the natural forces of society and the
market
 Free Enterprise
• Free enterprise - businesses and merchants would succeed or fail
based on their decisions and those of the consumer—laissez-faire
approach

• In the last 100 years, while free enterprise is still a driving ideal,
government involvement in the marketplace has increased to
protect workers or guarantee economic success overall.

• Conservatives tend to want government to stay out of the way

and want fewer burdensome regulations on businesses

• Liberals tend to see government regulation as necessary to

assure fairness and safety—labor union leaders and hourly
workers tend to side with the Democrats
 Rule of Law
• Rule of Law - establishes of laws that apply equally to all members of society and
prevents the rule and whims of leaders who see themselves as above the law

• The rule of law assures stability and certainty

• At times, government officials disregard the rule of law for personal gain,
corruption, or power

• Sometimes the law is not followed for the sake of leniency

• A traffic cop might let a young motorist go without a speeding ticket because
the infraction was small

• President might provide a new interpretation for how the government teats
immigrants brought as young children into the US illegally

• Our laws are written in language that has evolving meaning and interpretation
 Limited Government
• Limited government - kept under control by law and by
checks and balances and the separation of powers

• The Constitution is filled with as many devices and

designs to prevent government action as to empower it.

• Limited government is the key to civil liberties

• Many citizens ask how far the government can go

Political Ideologies
 What is an Ideology?
• Ideology - a comprehensive and mutually consistent set of ideas

• People take positions on public issues and develop a political viewpoint on

how government should act in line with their ideology

• Valence issues - concerns or policies that are viewed in the same way by
people with a variety of ideologies

• Educating children

• Protecting free speech

• Wedge issues - concerns or policies that sharply divide the public; some
issues tend to hold a high saliency (importance)

• Abortion
 The Liberal-Conservative
Spectrum
• Political scientists use the terms liberal and conservative, as well as “left” and “right”
to label each end of an ideological spectrum

• Moderate - never falls fully into one camp or the other

• The meaning of liberal and conservative have changed over time

• Liberal - government that did little—allowing citizens freedom, a free flow of

ideas, free markets, fewer laws, and fewer restrictions

• Since the 1930s, the term liberal has usually meant being open to allowing
government to flexibly expand beyond established constraints

• Conservative - following tradition and having respect for authority

• Modern day conservatives often invoke Jefferson and argue that government
should do less and thus allow people more freedom
 Identification with Ideologies
• Conservative label—aligned themselves with the
Republican Party
• Traditional Christian voters
• Family values groups—oppose abortion and same-sex
marriage
• Support prayer in school
• Liberal label—aligned themselves with the Democrat Party
• More regulation on industry
• Stronger gun control
• Value diversity
 Off the Line
• Few people, even regular party members, agree with every
conservative or every liberal idea

• Many people align themselves with one of the several other notable
political philosophies: libertarian, populist, or progressive

• Libertarian - conservative on fiscal or economic issues, liberal of moral

or social issues—more citizens claim to be libertarian Label than
formally belong to the party
• Oppose government intervention or regulation
• Oppose censorship
• Lower taxes
• Dislike government-imposed morality—pro-choice on abortion, equal
treatments of LBGT persons
 Populists and Progressives
• Populists
• Generally attend a Protestant church
• Follow fundamental Christian ideas: love they neighbor, contribute to
charity, and follow a strict moral code
• Found more in the South and Midwest
• Working-class families

• Progressives—split from the Republican Party in the early 1900s

• Criticized traditional political establishments that concentrated too
much power in one place
• Modern progressives are aligned with labor unions—worker’s rights
over corporate rights
• Wealthier class should pay a much larger percentage of taxes
 How Americans Identify
• Many people’s views fall between these ideologies and between the
two major political parties

• A poll that ask voters if they are “moderate,” “conservative,” or

liberal”
• 40 to 50 percent of America consider themselves moderate
• Nearly 30 percent consider themselves conservative
• 20 percent consider themselves liberal
• A poll that ask voters if they are “Democrat,” “Republican,” or
“independent”
• 32 percent claimed to be Democrats
• 32 percent claimed to Republicans
• 34 percent called themselves independent
Cultural Factors, Political
Socialization, and
Attitudes
 Influences on Politics
• Political socialization - the process by which one develops
political beliefs

• The process begins as soon as one is old enough to start

forming opinions on public matters

• Every constituent and political participant is affected by a

variety of influences that assist in political development
 Family
• Family is the biggest influence on one’s political socialization

• Children can differ from their parents in political opinions

• Teenagers who strongly differ from their parents in nonpolitical

ways may find themselves adopting far different political views as
well

• Studies show that among high school seniors, only about 10

percent identified with the party opposite one or both of their
parents

• About 50 percent of adults reject or misperceive their mothers’ and

fathers’ party identification
 School and College
• In school, topics come up in classes that may allow a teacher to influence students
politically, intentionally or not

• There is no evidence that the k-12 experience makes one more conservative or
liberal

• College deans and professors encourage a free flow of ideas in classroom discussion
• Business, economics, and engineering major tend to be Republican
• English and humanities tend to be Democrats

• Because such a large number of people attend college it is not possible to say that
people with an undergraduate degree tend to where to one particular ideology

• When researchers examine voters with advanced degrees they find they more
frequently vote Democratic and hold more liberal attitudes although the highest
percentage (46.1%) consider themselves moderate
 Peers
• Race and ethnic heritage are other factors that play a major role in
determining how one votes

• African Americans have closely aligned with Democratic Party since

1932 and even more strongly since the Civil Rights Movement of the
1960s

• 55 to 65 percent of Hispanics cast more Democratic than Republican

votes

• Asian Americans vote more often with the conservative Republican Party

• Voters with strong ties to a foreign country will consider their votes in the
context of their culture or how an issue might affect the relationship
between the United States and their country of origin.
 Media
• The media have a significant influence on political
socialization

• Young people are exposed to a great deal of political

information and opinion through their exposure to media

• Media are also influential in political socialization because

of the way they depict politics and politicians through both
news coverage and fictional television shows that are
politically oriented
 Social Environments
• Two types of environments are especially important: religious institutions and civic
institutions

• Religious institutions - Churches and other places of worship influence individuals’ political
thought
• 33 percent of Americans attend church on a weekly or near-weekly basis—people who
attend church are more likely than those that don’t to vote or participate in politics
• Fundamentalist and Evangelical Christians both tend to take conservative positions and
vote Republican
• Catholics and Jews have traditionally voted with the Democratic Party

• Civil Institutions - non governmental, non-business, and voluntary sector of social life
• Some civic institutions bring only like-minded people together, while other civic
institutions bring together people from a variety of backgrounds and viewpoints
• both types influence political socialization: one reinforces already held beliefs while the
other socializes a person to accept diversity
 Location
• Geographic location plays a key role in the way people think or approach certain
issues

• Northeast - Democrats dominate—more liberal policies prevail:

• Higher tax rates
• Vermont and Massachusetts were among the first states to legalize civil unions
and same-sex marriage

• California and other western states also lean Democratic

• Strong concern for the environment
• Tolerance for diverse lifestyles

• South - more influenced by conservative Christian values

• Working-class southerner may side with the Democratic Party on economic
issues but want tighter immigration enforcement
Shifting Influences on
Political Socialization
 Influence of Major Political
Events
• Assassinations, civil rights protest, and the Vietnam War were a feature of the
political culture of the decade and influenced the political socialization of both
participants and observers

• Challenging the government became a political norm, and people tended to

feel they had the power to bring about social change through their actions

• Those who endured the economic hardships of the Great Depression lived in an
era where many people had a favorable attitude toward government
involvement in social life

• These events advanced trust in the government and supported the role of
government in providing a social safety net

• Each generation has its own political events that bring about dynamic social
change
 Influence of Globalization
• Globalization - process of an ever-expanding and increasingly
interactive world economy

• The political culture of the U.S. has both influenced and been
influenced by the values of other countries as a result of
globalization

• American film, television, commercials, streaming content, music,

and video games are popular throughout the world—these
products reflect American values and are seen as “democratizing”

• Professionals and other workers from all parts of the world bring
their political and cultural ideas with them, and as they engage
with American society, they exert influence
 Global Identification
• Globalization has created a political culture in which people
think beyond national borders for their identity

• European Union (EU) members maintain their national

identity while also feeling a political and cultural kinship
with other members of the Union

• News coverage of natural disasters or humanitarian crises

bring about global support from a sense of shared humanity

• Pressures on the world’s resources, especially global

warming, remind people that they share their fate with other
people around the world
 Generational Effects
• Many polls show the differing voting patterns for people in different generations

• The impressionable-age hypothesis asserts that most persons forge most of

their political attitudes during the critical period between ages 14 and 24

• Political scientists, psychologies, and pollsters typically place Americans into

four generational categories to measure attitudes and compare where they
might stand on a political continuum.

• Silent Generation - born before 1945

• Baby Boomers - born between 1946-1964

• Generation X - born between 1965 and 1980

• Millennials - born between 1981 and 1996

 Millennials
• Tend to be more accepting of
• interracial and same-sex marriage
• Legalization of marijuana
• Second chances in the criminal justice system

• Tend to be more ethically and racially diverse than previous

generations

• About 12-percent are first generation Americans

• They tend to be tech-centered, generally supportive of government

action to solve problems, and highly educated

• They are more liberal than previous generations

 Silent Generation
• They are the last group to remember the era before the 1960s
counterculture movement and before the Vietnam War

• Grew up hating communism, and many of them supported

America’s nine-year involvement in Southeast Asia

• American prosperity, patriotism, and a Christian-Judeo moral code

were foremost in shaping their views during their impressionable
years

• Wants government to be tougher on criminal defendants and terror

suspects

• Oppose gay marriage and against the legalization of marijuana

 Lifecycle Effects
• Lifecycle Effects include the variety of physical, social, and psychological changes
that people go through as they age

• They can shift focus to issues that are important at different age levels

• College-age students are concerned about the accumulation of student debt and
the challenges of finding a job—many Millennials drawn to Bernie Sanders

• Next stage of life, involving marriage and family, shifts their priorities to issues
related to a stable or growing economy and to schools their children might attend

• Senior citizens are worried about things that matter most at their age—social
security, health issues, Medicare, retirement, and consumer protection

• Political habits - consuming news, interacting with government on a local level, and
developing the habit of voting
 QUESTIONS FOR EVALUATING CLAIMS BASED
ON PUBLIC OPINION POLLS
If it was done by a reputable polling organization, it is
1. Who conducted the poll, and
probably mainly accurate; if it is done (or paid for) by a
who paid for it? special interest, you need to consider possible bias.
Reliable polls are often released with a report that explains how
2. What methodology did the the results were obtained: the sampling methods, whether or not
pollsters use? the results are weighted, and the margin of error.

3. What were the exact questions, As you read, the wording and ordering of the
and in what order were they questions can have a significant impact on the poll
presented? results.
People tend to be more honest in mailed polls than
4. How were the results obtained? when interacting with an interviewer because of
social desirability bias.
The date information is collected can be a factor in poll results. For
5. In what context was the poll example, a statewide poll was taken the days following a barrage of
taken? media ads for a certain candidate, the poll results may inflate the
candidates actual popularity.
Good polls need to make an accommodation for people
6. Whose opinion might be
who refused to participate in the poll in order to provide
missing from the poll?
a fair sample.
If the results of a poll match up with other polls taken
7. How do the poll results
under the same circumstances and at the same time,
compare with other poll results? chances are good the poll is reliable.
Measuring Public
Opinion
 Polling
• Polling is the most reliable way to assess public opinion

• Entails posing well developed, objective questions to a

small, random group of people to find out what a much
larger group things

• Since the polling industry began in the mid-1930s, many

universities have established polling centers

• Major television networks and large newspapers have

created their own polling departments
 Types of Polling
• Benchmark polls - used to gather information about people’s views and
concerns

• Often used before a potential candidate has declared his or her intentions

• Tracking polls - ask people the same or similar questions over time to “track”
the path of public opinion

• Used heavily during election season to show assess a candidate’s

strength

• Entrance polls and exit polls - conducted outside a polling place on election
day to predict the outcome of the election, gain insight into the thoughts and
behavior of voters, or to identify and analyze how different voting
demographics actually voted
 Focus Groups
• Focus groups are small groups of citizens—10 to 40 people—
gathered to hold conversations about issues or candidates

• Allow for deeper insight into a topic

• Pollsters can ask follow-up questions and examine body

language and intensity that would be missed in other types of
polls

• Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney began

wearing jeans more often when campaigning in the 2012
election after focus groups responded more positively to
him in jeans than in formal clothes
 Approval Ratings
• Polls regularly ask about presidential approval

• Gauged by pollsters asking whether the respondent approves, yes or no, of the president’s job
performance

• Presidents usually begin their term with a fairly high approval as the people and the press get to know
them during the so-called “honeymoon period”

• The two highest recorded presidential approval ratings came after al-Qaeda attacked the U.S. in
September 2001, when President George W. Bush scored 90 percent approval, and when his father,
President George H. W. Bush, received 89 percent approval after leading a military coalition to oust Iraqi
dictator Saddam Hussein from Kuwait in 1991

• Respondents are also often asked: “Is the nation on the right track or wrong track?” to determine
Americans’ satisfaction with governmental leaders

• A positive right-track response usually means incumbents will fare well in their re-election campaigns

• High wrong-track response will make incumbents uncomfortable at election time

• The generic party ballot simply asks respondents if they will be voting for “Republicans” or “Democrats”
during an upcoming election without mentioning candidates’ names
 Methodology
• Pollsters ensure their measurements are legitimate by
• constructing questionnaires with property worded and
appropriately ordered questions

• Selecting a representative sample

• Pollsters then analyze the data and draw the appropriate

conclusions
 Questioning
• Pollsters phrase survey questions so as not to skew the results—wording
should be objective and not emotionally charged
• “Should the U.S. provide foreign aid to other nations?”
• “Should the U.S. give foreign aid to other nations leading to a tax
increase?”
• Question order can also affect the results
• In a 2002 poll on President George W. Bush’s performance, the same
questions were asked in a different sequence to two different groups—
president faired better when people were asked first about the performance
of the president and then the direction of the country
• Framing a question means posing it in a way that emphasizes a certain
perspective
• Researchers found that respondents had widely varying views on whether
abortion should be legal depending on how the question was framed
 Sampling Techniques
• Representative sample - a group of people meant to represent the large
group in question—known as the universe

• Representative sample needs to have about 1,500 respondents,

whether it is a sample of all U.S. adults or the population of a single
state

• Random sample - every single member of the universe must have an

equal chance of selection into the sample

• Since the 1980s, pollsters have used telephones as the primary

contact for surveys—random-digit dialing makes telephone polling
more reliable and efficient

• Weighting or stratification - making sure demographic groups are

properly represented in a sample
 Sampling Error
• Every poll has a margin of error; sample size and the margin of
error have an inverse relationship—as the sample gets larger the
margin of error decreases

• Sampling error - difference between poll results; determined by

measuring the results from two or more polls

• For example, if 55 percent of the first sample opposed a

particular congressional bill, while 58 percent of the second
sample opposed the law—this poll has a sampling error of 3
percent

• A margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 percent or less is usually

considered satisfactory
 Polling Phenomenons
• Many people do not have strong opinions on the issues of
the day, or they are uniformed or simply concerned about
their privacy

• High frequency of uniformed citizens—poll ask about

the repeal of the Public Affairs Act but no such act or
repeal effort existed; 43 percent questioned had an
opinion of the nonexistent law

• People are more honest or frank with the anonymity of a

per questionnaire than a live telephone call
 Push Polling and Internet
Polling
• Push polling - telephone poll with an ulterior motive

• Tape-recorded voice offers positive points about the candidate or

negative points about the opponent, attempting to “push” the receiver
one way or the other

• Internet polling can be problematic due to self-selection, administration,

and the nature of people who go online

• Only those strongly motivated will participate in an internet poll

• Some online polls have no limit to how many times one can take it

• Internet users tend to be younger, better educated, more affluent white,

and suburban—don’t represent a guide cross section of society
Evaluating Claims Based
on Public Opinion Data
 Public Opinion as a Source
of Political Influence
• Bandwagon effect - a shift of support to a candidate or position
holding the lead in public opinion polls and therefore believed to be
endorsed by many people

• Most media outlets do not report the findings from their statewide
Election Day exit polls until polls have closed in that state

• If people who have not yet voted learn that Candidate A is way
ahead in votes, they may not bother going to the polls

• Bandwagon effect is partly responsible for the direct link between a

candidate’s rank in national polls and the ability to raise campaign
funds—higher national rank, the more campaign contributions
 Influence on Policy Debate
• The three branches of the government tend to respond to public
opinion polling in somewhat different ways, if at all

• House of Representatives try to represent their constituencies

and keep them satisfied with their performance to encourage
fundraising and subsequent votes

• President may use their popularity as a “mandate” to advance

his or her agenda as quickly as possible—use the power of the
“bully pulpit”

• When the general mood of the nation is liberal, the Court will
hand down more liberal rulings—mood is more conservative,
the Court will issue more conservative rulings
 Reliability and Veracity of
Public Opinion Data
• Candidate error - the percentage point difference in the
poll’s estimate and the candidate’s actual share of the vote
after the election

• Has gradually declined as polling techniques became

more sophisticated

• Gallup poll predicted Romney would win 2012 election;

multiple polls predicted Clinton would win in 2016

• Psychology of the respondents and undecided voters may

explain why polls may be inaccurate and unreliable
 Social-Desirability Bias
• Social-desirability bias: respondents and declared voters
may tell the pollster what they think the pollster wants to
hear

• Respondents may give the interviewer the impression

that they will indeed vote, because they don’t want to be
seen as shirking a responsibility

• Voters don’t want to be perceived negatively, so they

give the interviewers a socially acceptable response, yet
act or vote in a different way
 Undecideds Breaking Late
• According to exit polling and research after the election, a
likely explanation for Trump’s surprise win was that a
larger than usual share of undecided voters “broke” late
and broke for Trump

• 26 percent of voters who said they were voting for third

party candidate voted for Trump and only 11 switched to
Clinton
 Opinions in Social Media
• The willingness of people to take part in polls is declining

• About 37 percent of randomly called citizens would

participate in a telephone poll in 1997—Today, about 10
percent

• Pollsters are able to capture the opinions and behaviors that

people give off passively by examining what is said on social
media and in the Google toolbar

• 2015 study found that people who discuss politics on Twitter

tend to be overwhelmingly male, urban, and extreme in their
ideological views
 Biased Pollsters and Data
vs. Fact
• Reputable pollsters seek ways to avoid bias in sampling
techniques and the wording of their questions

• Many polls are funded by special interest groups who want the
poll results to tip a certain way—use the results to move their
agendas forward

• Political Action Committees (PACs), special interest groups, and

partisan organizations all have vested interest in getting a
response from a poll that supports their cause

• National Council on Public Polls (NCPP) provides 20 questions to

journalists should ask and answer to gauge the reliability and
veracity of polls before reporting on a poll