Markov prediction model for

Pavement Condition prediction

• Most road agency requires a pavement performance
prediction for a period of 5 years in order to suggest a capital
improvement plan
 Need for Probabilistic method for predicting
pavement condition
• Deterministic Techniques (Regression method, M-E method)
does not take into account the uncertainties in pavement
behavior under variable load and climatic behavior
• Developing deterministic models require an accurate and
abundant dataset. Accuracy of the dataset largely affects the
performance model
• It is necessary to include all confounding variables that affect
pavement deterioration
• Markov method is a probabilistic technique used for
predicting pavement performance in PMS
• Pavement performance can be predicted using a
distress index, or using a combined index
• The range of these index can be between 1-5, or 0-
100
Transition Probability Matrix (TPM)
• Markov model starts with developing Transition Probability Matrix
(TPM). A TPM represents the probability that the a pavement
segment will stay in a specific condition for a specific year

Figure 1: Transition Probability Matrix

• p(j) is the probability of road staying in state j during one duty cycle
and q(j) = 1 – p(j). A duty cycle can 1 year effect of weather and
traffic loading
Transition Probability Matrix (TPM)
• P(1) can be calculated by dividing the number of miles of
road which remained at condition 5 to the total number of
miles of roads which remained at condition 5 and which
deteriorated to condition 4
 Markov method
• Initial state vector v(0) is row matrix which represent the
probability of condition states at initial condition
• The subsequent years pavement condition can be obtained by
multiplying the initial state vector by TPM matrix raised to the
power t, where t represents the number of years in future for
which pavement condition will be determined
– [v(1)] = [v(0)] x [TPM]
– [v(2)] = [v(1)] x [TPM] = [v(0)] x [TPM]2
– .............
– ……………
– [v(n)] = [v(n-1)] x [TPM] = [v(0)] x [TPM]n
 Sample problem
• The database provided represent the pavement length in miles
which remained at a condition state during a duty cycle and which
deteriorated to the next condition state

• Assumption: During one duty cycle the pavements are likely

deteriorate by one condition state only. This assumption need not
be valid always
 Transition matrix
• Transition matrix for Transverse cracking is
Transition probability matrix and Initial
state vector

Transition probability matrix

If all roads start at good condition (i.e) a condition rating of 100, then
the initial state vector would be a row matrix [1 x 7] (as there 7
condition ratings considered)
v(0) = [1 0 0 0 0 0 0 ]
Probability distribution values from
Markov model
Probability distribution values from
Markov model
Problem to attempt