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CH 04 - Exchange Rate Determination
CH 04 - Exchange Rate Determination
4
Exchange Rate Determination
Chapter Objectives
Approximate Approximate
Spot Rate of £ Annual % D
$/£ 1.80 20 %
1.75 15
1.70 10
1.65 5
1.60 0
1.55 -5
1.50 -10
1.45 -15
1.40 -20
1992 1996 2000 1992 1996 2000
Exchange Rate Equilibrium
An exchange rate represents the price of a
currency, which is determined by the demand
for that currency relative to the supply for
that currency.
Value of £
S: Supply of £
$1.60
$1.55 equilibrium
exchange rate
$1.50
D: Demand for £
Quantity of £
The Determinants of Foreign
Exchange Rates
Parity Conditions
1. Relative inflation rates
2. Relative interest rates
3. Forward exchange rates
4. Interest rate parity
real nominal
interest interest – inflation rate
rate rate
This relationship is sometimes called the
Fisher effect.
Factors that Influence
Exchange Rates
Relative Income Levels
m
n
E CF j, t ) E ER )
j, t
Value = j 1
t =1 1 k ) t
E (CFj,t ) = expected cash flows in currency j to be received
by the U.S. parent at the end of period t
E (ERj,t ) = expected exchange rate at which currency j can
be converted to dollars at the end of period t
k = weighted average cost of capital of the parent