Fault Tree Analysis

Part 8 - Probability Calculation

RESULTS OF PROBABILITY
CALCULATIONS

1) The probability of the top event.

2) The “importance” of the cut sets
and primal events.
 PROBABILITY OF EVENTS
CONNECTED BY AN “AND” GATE
In general, if events X and Y are probabilistically dependent, then
Pr( X Y )  Pr( X Y ) Pr(Y )
Where, Pr( X Y ) is the probability that X occurs given that Y occurs.
If events X and Y are probabilistically independent, then
Pr( X Y )  Pr( X )
and
Pr( X Y )  Pr( X ) Pr(Y )
Usually, it is assumed that the basic events in a fault tree are independent.
Thus,
Pr( B 1
B 2
B )  Pr( B )Pr( B )
n 1 2
Pr( B )n
PROBABILITY OF EVENTS CONNECTED
BY AN “OR” GATE
Pr( B 1
B 2
B )  1  Pr( B
n 1
B 2
B)
n

 1  [1  Pr( B )][1  Pr( B )] [1  Pr(B )]

1 2 n

n  2,
Pr( B B )  Pr( B )  Pr( B )  Pr( B )Pr( B )
1 2 1 2 1 2

n  3,
Pr( B B B )  Pr( B )  Pr( B )  Pr( B )
1 2 3 1 2 3

 Pr( B ) Pr( B )  Pr( B ) Pr( B )  Pr( B ) Pr( B )

1 2 2 3 3 1

 Pr( B ) Pr( B ) Pr( B )

1 2 3
Note,

Pr( B .EOR.B )  Pr( B )  Pr( B )  2Pr( B )Pr( B )

1 2 1 2 1 2
 PROBABILITY OF EVENTS
CONNECTED BY A m-OUT-OF-n
VOTING GATE
Assume
Pr( B )  Pr( B ) 
1 2
 Pr( B )  Q
n

then n
    Q (1  Q)
n
k nk
Q system
k 
k m

where
n n!
 k  = k !(n  k )!
 
 SHORT-CUT CALCULATION METHODS
Information Required
(1) j  failure rate  cons tan t
(2) j  repair rate  cons tan t
(3) min imum cut sets

Approximation of Event Unavailability

Qj 
j
j   j
1  e (  j   j ) t

j
 j  0.1
When time is long compared with MTTR and , the following approximation
can be made, j
(
j j j)
lim Q j      j j
t  
 j   j ( j ) 1  j
j
Where, j is the MTTR of component j.
 Z

AND

X Y

IF X and Y are Independent

Z   X Y ( X   Y )
 X Y
Z 
 X Y
AND-Gate Algorithm
N N
Q AND   Q j   ( j j )
j 1 j 1

 
N
 N
 N  j N 
w AND
   w j (t ) Q l (t )     Ql 
l 1 j 1 
Qj 
j 1
  l 1
 l j 
 j   1
   j j   
N N N
 AND  w AND Q 
AND

j 1 Q j  j 1   j 1  j 
Q AND 1
 AND
 
 AND N
1

j 1 j
 Z

OR

X Y

z  x   y
(x x   y y )
z 
(x   y )
OR-Gate Algorithm
M M
Q OR
  Qi   (i i )
i 1 i 1
M
 OR
w OR
  i
i 1

M 
OR  i i 
  i 1 
Q
 OR

OR
M 
 i 
 i 1 
 COMPUTATION OF  , ACROSS LOGIC
GATES

2 INPUTS 3 INPUTS n INPUTS

  (     
 12 (1   2 )    (        ) 
1 2 n 2 3 1 3 n

1 2 3 2 3 1 3 1 2    )1 2 n 1
AND
GATES
  1 2   1 2 3 1 1
1
1
  
1   2      
2 3 1 3 1 2
 1
 2
 n

 1  2       
1 2 n
OR 1 2 3

GATES
 11  2 2       
1 1 2 2 3 3
       
1 1 2 2 n n

1  2    1 2 3
    1 2 3 n
COMPUTING TOP EVENT
PROBABILITY

1.Compute q (=  ) for each primal Event.

2.Compute the Probability or Failure Rate for each

Cut Set (QK). Use the “AND” Equation.

3.Compute the Top Event Probability or failure rate.

Use the “OR” Equation.
Example
 3 TEMPERATURE
SENSOR

HOT HEAT EXCHANGER 2 8

1
NITRIC TO REACTOR
ACID

AIR TO OPEN TRC SET POINT

COOLING WATER
 WATER
M 7 LEAKS
EXT. FIRE AT
INTD T 8
+1 ACID
HWAT EXCHANGER

M 4 +1
-1 +1 +1 +1 M 8
+1 M 2
+1 T 2
+1
M 1
+1 -1 -1
+1 0 M 3
+1
T 1
SET P 5
POINT +1
-10 +1

P 6 TEMR
SENSOR
FAILS
LOW

-1
EXT. T 4
+1 FIRE
AT
TRC +1
INSTRUMENT
AIR T 7
PRESSURE
 CUT SET IMPORTANCE
The importance of a cut set K is defined as
Q
I 
k
k

Q s

Where, QS is the probability of the top event. I K may be interpreted

as the conditional probability that the cut set K occurs given that
the top event has occurred.

PRIMAL EVENT IMPORTANCE

The importance of a primal event X is defined as
1
Q
M

iX  K
QS K 1
or
iX   I K
M

K 1

Where, the sum is taken over all cut sets which contain primal
event X .
[ Example ] TOP

OR

OR G2 AND G3 OR G6

G4 G7 AND
1 2 3 OR 6

AND G5 5 G2 3

3 4

GATE CUT SETS

2 (1) (2)
5 (3 , 4)
4 (3 , 4) (5)
7 (1 , 3) (2 , 3)
3 (3 , 4 , 3) (3 , 5)
6 (6) (1 , 3) (2 , 3)
1 (1) (2) (3 , 4) (3 , 5) (6) (1 , 3) (2 , 3)

Hence, the minimal cut sets for this tree are :

(1) , (2) , (6) , (3 , 4) and (3 , 5).
 As an example , consider the tree used in the section on cut sets.
The cut sets for this tree are (1) , (2) , (6) , (3,4) ,(3,5). The following data
are given from which we compute the unavailabilities for each event.

Event   yr 1
  yr (hr ) qi
1 .16 1.5E-5 (.125) 2.4E-6
2 .2 1.5E-5 (.125) 3.0E-6
3 1.4 7E-4 (6) 9.8E-4
4 30 1.1E-4 (1) 3.3E-3
5 5 1.1E-4 (1) 5.5E-4
6 .5 5.5E-5 (.5) 2.75E-5

Now, compute the probability of occurrence for each cut set and top event
probability. Q
Cut Set K

(1) 2.4E-6
(2) 3.0E-6
(6) 2.75E-5
(3,4) 3.23E-6
(3,5) 5.39E-7

Q S
3.67E-5
 THE COMMON–MODE FAILURES WITHIN FAULT TREES

PUMP 2
POWER 2 (STAND – BY)
2

Shared Power 3
Source

S SWITCH
POWER 1
1

PUMP 1
(RUNNING)
 10
0
+1
PUMP 2
SPEED
M2 +1

0
0 +1 0
+10
M 3 0
-10
S
+1

M1
POWER 1.
FAILURE

0
-10
+1
0
-1
0 -10
POWER 1 0
PUMP 1 FAILURE 1
SPEED PUMP 1
MECH.
-10 0
FAILURE
1
 M (10)
3
G1
  1/ 90.8 yrs.
AND
4.97 10 6
  3.95 hrs.
Pump 1 Pump 2 Not   1/ 3.04 yrs.
Shut Down 1.69 10 4
Started
  1/ 2.68 yrs.   4.64 wks.
OR G2
  3.97 hrs.
OR G3
2.94 10 2

P1 Local P2 Local Switch Local

Mech Power 1 Mech Power 2 Stuck Power 1
Fail. Failure Fail. Faiture Failure
1 2 3 4 5 2

1.67 10 4
2.3 10 6
3.8 10 5.5 10
3
2.5 104 2

  1/ 3 yrs.   1/ 25 yrs.   1/ 5 yrs.   1/ 35 yrs.   1/10 yrs.

  4 hrs.   5 hrs.   1 wk.   1 wk.   3 mo.
GATE MIN CUT SETS
G2 (1) , (2)
G3 (2) , (3) , (4) , (5)
G1 (1 , 2) , (1 , 3) , (1 ,4) , (1 ,5)
(2 , 2) , (2 , 3) , (2 ,4) , (2 , 5)
(1 , 2) , (1 , 3) , (1 , 4) , (1 , 5)
(2) , (2 , 3) , (2 , 4) , (2 , 5)
 M (10)
3

7.23 10 6

OR   1/ 20 yrs.
  1.27 hrs.
q  4.2 10 6.4 10
6
7
9.2 10 8

2
2.3 10 AND   1/120 yrs. AND   1/ 20 yrs. AND   1/ 5333 yrs.
6

  4.4 hrs.   4.3 hrs.   4.6 hrs.

1 5 1 3 1 4
1.67 10 4
2.5 10 2
1.67 10 4
3.8 10 3
1.67 10 4
5.5 10 4

COMP q  (Yr )-1



1 1.67  10 4
1/3 4 Hr.
2 2.3  10 6
1/25 5 Hr.
3 3.8  10 3
1/5 1 Week
4 5.5  10 4
1/35 1 Week
5 2.5  10 2
1/10 3 Months
Cut Set QK K
(2) 2.3  106 1 / 25 Yr.
(1 , 3) 6.4  107 1 / 762 Yr.
(1 , 4) 9.2  108 1 / 5333 Yr.
(1 , 5) 4.2  106 1 / 120 Yr.

TOP Event
QTOP
 7.23 10 6
  1/ 20Yr.
TOP

Unavailability
Importances

IQ(2)  2.3  106 / 7.23  10 6  .32 I1Q  .669

I(1,3)  .088
Q
IQ2  .32
I(1,4)  .0012
Q I3Q  .088

I(1,5)  .58
Q IQ4  .0012
I5Q  .53
 Unreliability Importances

I 
1/ 25
R
 0.8 I1  .197
R

(2)
1/ 20
I 2  0.8
R

I  .026
R

I 3  .026
(1,3)
R

I R
(1,4)
 .004 I 4  .004
R

I R
(1,5)
 0.167 I 5  .167
R