Topics:

Introduction to power generation, types of energy

sources, common subsystems in power plants, basic
terminology, choice of power plant, selection of size
and number of units
CLO1:
Express concepts about various terminologies and
technologies of power generation. (C2-PLO1)

Book Chapters: 1, 2
No of lectures: 3

1
 What are the various types of load?
BACKGROUND
How are they to be supplied by the
distribution?
How can the load be shared
economically between various power How are the sizes of
stations in the power system? distributors determined?

How much space will be

How
Howshould
much
required the
forpowertypes
is toof
a particular besize and
powerofstation
generated by be chosen?
type
How are thethe
power
How can power
station?
sizes power station?
be obtained and
of generators What are the various methods
distributed
and prime economically?
movers selected? of distributing power?

What should be the voltage How are the sizes of

and size of transmission line transformers in sub-station
conductors to transmit a and the locations of sub
Whatcertain
are thepower
various types
over of
a certain stations chosen?
2
power stations?
distance?
Prediction of Load
By
Dr. Irfan Latif Khan

3
 Contents
1. Electrical Load Development

2. Definition of Terms

3. Diversity Factor

4. Types of Load

5. Rural electrification

6. Forecasting of loads and electrical energy requirements

7. Forecast of electrical energy in Pakistan

8. Expected load and energy growth in Pakistann

4
 Electrical Load Development
Load Requirements of area depends on:
1. Nature of area
2. Population of town or village
3. Density of population
4. Standard of living of the people in the locality
5. Industrial development in the area
6. Cost of electrical power

How to predict the load requirement of new township or area:

• No previous data
• Trend of development
• Study the possibilities for the sale of electric power based on
development plans
• Probable number of consumers
• Power requirements of each type of load
• Time at which load requires power etc 5
 Definition of Terms

𝑀𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑
𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 =
𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑

𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑
𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 =
𝑀𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑

𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑑 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 24 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠

𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 =
𝑀𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 ∗ 24 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠

Degree of variation of load over a period Example 1.1

of time is measured by a load factor
6
 Diversity Factor

𝑆𝑢𝑚 𝑜𝑓 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑠

𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 =
𝑆𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑒𝑜𝑢𝑠 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑

Maximum demand on the power station is always less than

the sum of individual maximum demands of the consumers
• A power station supplies load to various types of consumers
whose maximum demands generally do not occur at the same time

• Diversity factor will always be greater than 1.

• Greater the diversity factor, the lesser is the cost of generation of
power.
Example 1.2
7
Load and demand factors are always less than 1 while diversity factors are
more than unity.

© Irfan Khan 8
oThe maximum demand of consumer a is
the product of its connected load and the
appropriate demand factor.

oThe maximum demand on the

transformer is the sum of a, b and c’s
maximum demands divided by the
diversity factors between the consumers

oThe maximum demand on the feeder 𝑆𝑢𝑚 is 𝑜𝑓 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑀𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚

𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑
𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑠
𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟
the sum of maximum demands on the =𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 =
𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑
𝑆𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑒𝑜𝑢𝑠 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑
𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑
distribution transformers connected to it
divided by the diversity factor between
transformers

oDecreasing numerical values of

diversity factor as the power plant end
of the system is approached
© Irfan Khan 9
 Types of Load

1. Residential or domestic load

2. Commercial load
3. Industrial load
4. Government load
5. Municipal load
6. Irrigation load
7. Traction load
8. Bulk supplies to different distribution substations

Example: 1.3
10
 Load requirements of an area
1. General loads
• Domestic
• Commercial
2. Industrial load
• Cottage Industries (up to 3 KW)
• Small scale industries (up to 25 kW)
• Medium industries (25 to100 kW)
• Large industries (100 to 500 kW)
• Heavy industries (more than 500 kW)
3. Street lightning
4. Water supply
5. Irrigation
6. Traction
7. Bulk supplies to different distribution substations
11
General loads:

Cottage Industries:

12
Small scale industries:

13
Irrigation:

14
 Rural electrification
Rural residential load requirements can be estimated and
understood from the following example:

Agricultural load: (example of western countries)

15
Forecasting of loads and electrical energy requirements

• Why should we anticipate the electrical energy demand

• Planning the exploitation of new energy resources
• Available energy resources

• Long term forecasts (20 years)

• Medium term forecasts (5 to 6 years)
• Short term forecasts (1 to 2 years)

• Power station construction and installation of equipment

• Planning the size of station
• Forecast and demand of energy
• Additional installed capacity

• Short term forecasts are mainly of value for deciding the

operation procedures and for preparation of budget
estimates 16
• Forecasting of load requirements is an essential part of power
project design.

The forecast is based upon:

1. Past development of power requirements in the region
2. Application received from various prospective consumers
3. Trends in the development of industries and other
potentialities of load development

Forecasts or estimates of future demand of electrical energy

can be evaluated by the following methods:
1. Sectional methods or load survey methods
2. Methods of extrapolation
3. Mathematical methods
4. Mathematical methods considering economic parameters
17
1.Sectional methods or load survey methods
In this method following procedure is adopted:
• Area under the consideration is visited
• Existing and future load requirements are forecasted by
• Identifying the needs of the communities
• Identifying the factors that increases the load
demand of the area
• Consumer groups are classified
• Enquires are made from the consumer according to category
and area:
• To estimate electrical power demand
• Expected time of occurrence of the load 18
No of factor needs careful analysis in survey:

1. General geographic region and subdivisions where power is to be sold

2. Topography and climate of the region and its effect on load
requirement
3. Population distribution, past growth and estimated future growth
4. Availability of labour, past distribution and estimated future available
labour
5. Natural resources of the region: agriculture, timber, minerals and
raw materials for manufacturing industries
6. Main economic activities: agriculture, mining, manufacturing, textile
industry, etc
7. Income per person
8. Use of electric power and energy: the existing use and the existing
rates of consumption
9. Relative costs of electric and other forms of power available in the
region. Cost of electrical energy and the cost of gas

19
Following factors also be studied or considered:
• Principle load centers
• Energy requirements
• Distribution of power to various classes of loads
• Maximum or peak demand
• Characteristics of load
• Losses in the system also be considered
• Loss in the distribution system may be taken as 10 to 15 %
• Diversity among the loads also be considered
• Final future requirements may be predicted as
• Annul energy requirements
• Annual peak demands
• Annual load factors 20
2. Methods of extrapolation

• Study of data collected from various record.

• Method is sued to prepare trends of increase in demand and

energy consumption of past period.
• Then compared with the period of forecast

• Statistical methods are applied

• Average rate of increase of consumption is found out
for the past
• These rates are used for the future estimates of the
forecast
21
Following results are deduced by Grauer 1961:

Each country passes through four periods of development in its

economy of power demand.

1. Annual electricity consumption per head 100 to 200 kWh ( Yearly

increase in energy demand is 2 to 5 %)

2. Annual electricity consumption per head about 1000 kWh ( Yearly

increase in energy demand is 10 to 25 %)

3. Annual electricity consumption per head 2000 to 3000 kWh ( Yearly

increase in energy demand is 7 to 7.5 %)

4. Annual electricity consumption per head above 3000 kWh ( 7.2 %

in ten years)

22
Extrapolation is a process of predicting the data point about the outside of a
curve when a few points are given. In the example given below, the known data
are x1, x2, x3. Finding the point x4 is known as extrapolation point.

23
Example illustration of the extrapolation problem, consisting of assigning a
meaningful value at the blue box, at , given the red data points.

24
Drawback:
This method does not consider power requirement due to
unforeseen developments such as establishment of large and
major industries

Curve Plotting:
Prediction of future load and future possible energy consumption
through:
1. Curve of load (kilowatts) against years
2. Curve of energy consumed (kilowatt-hours) against years

25
3. Mathematical methods

Data of energy consumption for past years and trend is

observed by:
• Direct extrapolation of the rate of change of energy
requirements

The method used for exploration of curves:

• Linear curve fitting or
• Exponential curve fitting

26
3. Mathematical methods considering
economic parameters or ‘Ergonomics’
• Yearly power consumption depends on the economic factors
in the country
• The science of ‘Energonomics’ has been developed.
Energonomics considers following factors in study:
1. Change in demand by economic sectors
2. Demand for commercial energy and various economic
activities
3. Efficiency of commercial sources in the economic sector
4. Cost of energy in relation to the rate of growth of economy
5. Energonomic indices for per capita consumption
6. Capital investment in energy 27
The specific electric energy consumption depends on the
following essential economic parameters:

1. Specific gross investment

2. Industrial production
3. Specific gross national products (GNP)
4. Raw energy consumption
5. Steel consumption, housing, transport, etc.

When the load requirements have been predicted, the next

problem is to determine:

• Type of generating plant

• Capacity of generating plant to meet the required demand
• Connectivity with the load
• Local connectivity
• Grid connectivity
28
General Knowledge:
What is the difference between GNP and GDP?

29
Comparison of per capita electricity consumption of some countries
30
Number of electric consumers across the five demand sectors of
Pakistan (million).

Electricity consumption across the five demand sectors of Pakistan (tWh).

Perwez, Usama, et al. "The long-term forecast of Pakistan's electricity supply and demand: An application of long range energy alternatives
planning." Energy 93 (2015): 2423-2435. 31
 Forecast of electrical energy in Pakistan

Electricity requirement across the five demand sectors

Perwez, Usama, and Ahmed Sohail. "Forecasting of Pakistan's net electricity energy consumption on the basis of energy pathway
scenarios." Energy Procedia 61 (2014): 2403-2411.
32
Perwez, Usama, et al. "The long-term forecast of Pakistan's electricity supply and demand: An application of long range energy alternatives
planning." Energy 93 (2015): 2423-2435.
33
 Expected load and energy growth in Pakistann
Summary of Electricity Demand Forecast and Generation Required by
2029-30

34
Pakistan Electricity Generation Composition 2029-30 As Per IEEFA’s Model

35
36