Water, violence, conflict and

cooperation

Dr. Ken Conca

kconca@gvpt.umd.edu
 Topics:
• The world’s water picture and global water
challenges

• Water as a source of violent conflict

(pathways and probabilities)

• Water cooperation initiatives

 Water is…
…unsubstitutable in its most
important uses;
…unevenly distributed;
…difficult to capture;
…movable, but often only at
great social, economic, or
ecological cost;
…highly variable over time in its
availability.
 I. The world’s water
challenges
• Addressing unmet human water needs

• Allocating water across competing sectoral

needs: agricultural, industrial, municipal

• Managing and reversing the impact on

critical freshwater ecosystems
 Challenge: Unmet needs and
water-related human insecurity
• An estimated 1.3 billion people currently lack
reliable access to safe drinking water

• An estimated 2.6 billion lack adequate sanitation

• Struggle to keep pace with population growth in

recent decades, much less make a dent in these
figures

• Projection: Half the world’s people will live in

conditions of “water insecurity” by 2035
 Per-capita domestic water use
Per-capita Number of Aggregate Largest
consumption: countries: population: countries:

< 25 lpcd 39 738 million Nigeria,

Bangladesh,
Ethiopia, DR
Congo
< 50 lpcd 62 2.2 billion India,
(WHO Indonesia
standard)
< 100 lpcd 81 3.8 billion China,
Pakistan
Source: Gleick, The World’s Water 2000-2001
 Millennium
Development “By 2015,
Goals cut in half
the
proportion of
people
without
sustainable
access to
safe drinking
water and
Millennium water goals: mixed progress
Region: Drinking water: Sanitation:
Arab States n.a. n.a.
Central/Eastern Achieved n.a.
Europe
East Asia/Pacific Lagging Lagging
Latin America & On track Lagging
Caribbean
South Asia On track Lagging

Sub-Saharan Lagging Reversal

Africa
Source: Worldwatch Institute, State of the World 2005
 Challenge: Addressing water
demands of competing sectoral uses

• Growing inter-sectoral competition (agriculture

vs. emerging industrial, municipal uses)

• Strong growth projections across all sectors--but

ineffective mechanisms for allocating water
across sectors

• Controversies over water pricing and private-

sector participation
Challenge: Addressing environmental
impacts and in-stream uses

• importance of freshwater ecosystem

services
• cumulative toll of damming, diverting,
draining, dumping, developing
• 1/3 of world’s fish species endangered
(vast majority are freshwater fish)
• 800k dams on world’s rivers, 500k altered
for navigation
 State of the world’s freshwater
ecosystems
Condition: Capacity:

• Food production Good Mixed

• Water quality Poor Decreasing

• Water quantity Fair Decreasing

• Biodiversity Bad Decreasing

Source: World Resources Institute, Pilot Assessment of Global Ecosystems
 II. Water as a source of
violent conflict

• “The wars of the next century will be over water.”

(Ismail Serageldin, World Bank)

• “The next Middle East war will be over dwindling

water supplies.” (Moammar Gaddafi)

• “Conditions are ripe for a century of water

conflicts.” (The Economist )
 Water and conflict: Some
key questions
• What is the historical record?

• What likelihood of future conflict, given changing

conditions?

• At what levels of social aggregation—localized,

interstate, …?

• By what specific pathways?

 Gleick’s typology of historical
water conflicts:
• Control of Water Resources: water supplies or access are
at the root of tensions.
• Military Target: where water resources/systems are targets
of military actions by nations or states.
• Military Tool: water resources/systems used as a weapon
during a military action.
• Political Tool: water resources/systems themselves used
for a political goal.
• Terrorism: water resources/systems are targets or tools of
violence or coercion by non-state actors.
• Development Disputes: water resources/systems are a
major source of contention/dispute in context of economic
development.
 Pacific Institute Water
and Conflict Chronology

http://worldwater.org/conflict.htm
Potential pathways to water-related
violent conflict
• Interstate conflict in shared river basins

• Violence triggered along pre-existing social

cleavages (ethnicity, identity group, social
class, region)

• “Developmental” states in conflict with

affected domestic communities

• Coercive environmental protection or water-

related restrictions
 Problem: Growing water stress in
the world’s river basins

• 2.3 billion people live in river basins under

“water stress” (<1700 cu. meters/yr per
capita)

• 1.7 billion people live in river basins under

“high water stress” (<1000 cu. meters/yr
per capita)
Source: World Resources Institute, World Resources 2000-2001
Problem: Thinly institutionalized
cooperation on shared basins
• 263 internationally shared river basins

• fewer than 20% have a cooperative international

agreement in effect

• only a handful have accords involving all basin

states

• 1997 U.N. Convention on Shared

Watercourses--not in force
Oregon State University “Basins
at Risk” project (Wolf et al)

•50-year database of scaled

cooperative and conflictual events

•Tested wide array of social, economic,

political variables for causal link to
conflictual/cooperative events

•Used results to identify “basins at risk”

 Findings:
• Cooperative events outnumber conflictual
by more than 2 to 1
• Few extreme events
• Major issues: water quantity and water
infrastructure
• Variables that don’t explain much: income
level, regime type, water stress (!)
 Findings (cont’d):
Key is rate of change—when rate of change
within basin exceeds capacity of
institutions to adapt—specifically:
• “internationalized” basins
• unilateral development in the absence of
international cooperative agreement
 Findings (cont’d)
• From this, extrapolate 17 “basins at risk”

Ganges- La Plata Orange

Brahmaputra
Han Lempa Salween
Incomati Limpopo Senegal
Kunene Mekong Tumen
Kura-Araks Ob (Ertis) Zambezi
Lake Chad Okavango
Source: Wolf et al, “International Waters: Identifying Basins at Risk,” Water Policy 5 Number 1 (2003) 29-60
Pathways to violent conflict:

• Interstate conflict in shared river basins

• Violence triggered along pre-existing

social cleavages (ethnicity, identity group,
social class, region)

• “Developmental” states in conflict with

affected domestic communities

• Coercive environmental protection or

water-related restrictions
 The Homer-Dixon thesis:
• Scarcity-induced violent conflict as a result
of environmental change
• Tendency of conflict to play out along pre-
existing social cleavages
• “Yes, but…”: Subsequent statistical
studies show weak association, low-grade
violence, importance of intervening
variables
Pathways to violent conflict:

• Interstate conflict in shared river basins

• Violence triggered along pre-existing

social cleavages (ethnicity, identity group,
social class, region)

• “Developmental” states in conflict with

affected domestic communities

• Coercive environmental protection or

water-related restrictions
 Critical
ecosystem

Scarce Anchor of
commodity local
with market livelihoods
value and culture
“A river plays a very big role in our culture. It
has a lot to do. If somebody passes away or
maybe was killed by the lightning, usually he
would be buried next to the river. It is a place
where our traditional doctors go to get qualified.
Some people say they talk with their ancestors
right in the river. If a girl is about to start her first
period, a traditional way to guide her is to take
her to the river. Apart from that, if someone in
the family dreams about a river, it will mean that
someone in the family is pregnant; and if I am a
mother, I should know that something is wrong
with one of my daughters.”

--Mathato Khit’sane, Highlands Church Action Group, Lesotho

Nehru: “Dams are the temples of
modern India.”

Stalin: “Water which is allowed to

enter the sea is wasted.”

World Commission on Dams

estimates that 40-80 million people
have been displaced to make way for
large dams and water projects
 Trends in state-society water
development conflicts
• Transnationalization of opposition
• Increasing success of dam opponents (in
context of greater private-sector role)
• World Commission on Dams as a forum
for dialogue, conflict resolution
• Endurance of site-specific violence when
movements choose confrontation and
states choose repression
Pathways to violent conflict:

• Interstate conflict in shared river basins

• Violence triggered along pre-existing

social cleavages (ethnicity, identity group,
social class, region)

• “Developmental” states in conflict with

affected domestic communities

• Coercive environmental protection or

water-related restrictions
 “The squatters live…next to a
polluted river and the local
authority fear that it could be a
source of cholera.” (BBC 2-13-01)
III. Water Cooperation Initiatives
• International river-basin cooperation

• ‘Stakeholder’ dialogues around

infrastructure and privatization
controversies

• Domestic water policy reforms

 Principles for shared river
basins (1997 U.N. Convention)

• All basin states participate

• “Equitable and reasonable use”
• Obligation to avoid “significant harm”
• Regular exchange of information
• Prior notification
• Peaceful dispute resolution
 Water cooperation initiatives
• International river-basin cooperation

• ‘Stakeholder’ dialogues around

infrastructure and privatization
controversies

• Domestic water policy reforms

World Commission on Dams

UN Environment Programme
Dams and Development Project
 Water cooperation initiatives
• International river-basin cooperation

• ‘Stakeholder’ dialogues around

infrastructure and privatization
controversies

• Domestic water policy reforms

 Examples of innovative
domestic water-policy reforms

• Brazil: basin-level committees, mixed-

membership bodies geared toward conflict
resolution

• South Africa: human and environmental

“reserves”, pricing reforms/minimum free
allocation
Global 2000: Major Conclusions
“Regional water shortages will become more
severe. In the 1970-2000 period population
growth alone will cause requirements for water
to double in nearly half the world. Still greater
increases would be needed to improve
standards of living. In many [less-developed
countries], water supplies will become
increasingly erratic by 2000 as a result of
extensive deforestation. Development of new
water supplies will become more costly virtually
everywhere.”
 Projected Global Water
Withdrawals in Year 2000 (cu. km),
by year of forecast
10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Source: Adapted from Gleick, The World’s Water 2000-2001

 Scenarios for global water use
in 2025
scenario: projected withdrawal
(cu. km/yr):

• Raskin “reference” 5044

• Seckler “BAU” 4569

• Gleick “vision” 4270

• WWC “vision” 4200

• Raskin “reform” 4054

• Seckler “efficiency” 3625
 Critical variables shaping
water futures:
-Population growth
-Economic growth
-Technological innovation

** Water finance trends & pricing policies

** Management of social controversies
** International river diplomacy