Climate Projection

AMIR MUSTOFA IRAWAN

SOURCE: IPCC WG-I CHAPTER 10 - GLOBAL CLIMATE PROJECTIONS

Language Problem: Forecast

IPCC does not talk about “forecasting” or “predicting” future

climate. Why?

•A “forecast” implies that we know (or think we know) all the

factors that determine the future - even though we may know
them only imperfectly.

Some important factors we do not know for the future:

What will humans do about GHG emissions, aerosol generation
and land use?
When and where will volcanoes erupt, and how strongly?
Terminology: Projection

To recognize this uncertainty, many climate scientists

describe a simulation of possible future climate as a
projection.

IPCC:
“A projection is a potential future evolution of a
quantity or set of quantities, often computed with
the aid of a model.”
Climate Scenarios vs Climate
Projections
History of scenarios
Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)

IPCC Working Group III produced a set of possible

future emissions scenarios, described in special IPCC
report (see supplemental material).

•The IPCC AR4 focuses on three:

B1 - a “low” emissions future, global cooperation
A1B - a “medium” emissions future
A2 - a “high” emissions future, regional fragmentation
Ilustrasi Diagram SRES
SRES Scenarios
SRES Diagram

A1F1:skenario  dengan
penggunaan bahan
bakar fosil secara
intensif

A1B: skenario  dengan

penggunaan bahan
bakar fosil secara
seimbang

A1T: skenario
 penggunaan bahan
bakar non-fosil yang
lebih dominan
SRES Scenarios vs. Time
Projections of Future Changes in
Climate
Latitudinal Pattern of Temperature Change

Ratio: Actual change

Local change / Global average T
Latitude-Height Temperature Changes

A1B (“medium”) scenario relative to 1980-1999

Relative to 1980-1999

Surface
Temperatur
e Changes
Latitudinal Pattern of Precipitation Change
(2080 - 2099) minus (1980 - 1999)

Ratio: Actual change

Local change / Global average T
Surface Temperature, Precipitation and
Pressure Changes Relative to 1980-1999
Changes in Diurnal Temperature Range
A1B (“medium”) scenario relative to 1980-1999
Changes in
Precipitation
Characteristi
cs
Changes in Water Cycle
Changes in Area of Sea Ice
Changes in
Distributio
n of Sea Ice
For
North
America
Changes in
Extremes:
Very Warm
Nights

(Wehner,
2008)
For
North
America
Changes in
Extremes:
Heavy
Precipitation

(Wehner,
2008)
Factors
Affecting
Hurricane
Development
A1B scenario

(Vecchi and Soden, 2007)

 Idealized
Simulations
with High
Changes
Resolution
Model
Hurricane
Intensity
Future: 80-year
warming from
1%/year CO2
increase

(Knutson and
Tuleya, 2004)
Thank you