Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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02 PM Imdr
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PROJECT MANAGEMENT
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Project Selection Methods
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: Project Appraisal
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Approaches to Project Screening
Checklist model
Profile models
Financial models
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Checklist Model
A checklist is a list of criteria applied to possible
projects.
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Profile Models
Desired Risk
Criteria
X 2 selection as
axes
Risk
X 4 X 5
Efficient Frontier
X 3
X1 Rating each
project on
Minimum Return criteria
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Desired Return Figure 3.4 -
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Financial Models
Based on the time value of money principal
Payback period
Net present value
Internal rate of return
Options models
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PROJECT MANAGEMENT
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Feasibility Study
What is a feasibility study?
CONTEXT
Need to understand:
– Goals (the need for the project and the
measurable benefits)
– Scope
– Time to complete
– Estimates of timeline, resource requirements
and costs
Why a feasibility study?
Objectives:
To find out if an system development project can be
done:
...is it possible?
...is it justified?
To suggest possible alternative solutions.
To provide management with enough information to
know:
• Whether the project can be done
• Whether the final product will benefit intended users
• What the alternatives are (so that a selection can be
made in subsequent phases)
• Whether there is a preferred alternative
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Why a feasibility study?
A management-oriented activity:
After a feasibility study, management makes a
“go/no-go” decision.
Need to examine the problem in the context of
broader business strategy
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Feasibility Study Contents
1. Purpose & scope of the study
Objectives (of the study)
who commissioned it & who did it,
sources of information,
process used for the study,
how long did it take,…
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Feasibility Study Contents
5. Possible alternatives
…including ‘do nothing’.
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Feasibility Study Contents
7. Analysis of alternatives
description of each alternative
evaluation with respect to criteria
cost/benefit analysis and special implications.
8. Recommendations
what is recommended and implications
what to do next;
E.g. may recommend an interim/ permanent
solution
9. Appendices
to include any supporting material.
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Types of feasibility
1) Commercial Feasibility
2) Technical Feasibility
3) Schedule Feasibility
4) Operational Feasibility
5) Economic Feasibility
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1) Commercial Feasibility
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(2) Technical Feasibility
A measure of the practicality of a specific
technical solution and the availability of technical
resources and expertise.
Is the project possible with current technology?
What technical risk is there?
Availability of the technology:
Is it available locally?
Can it be obtained?
Will it be compatible with other systems?
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(2) Technical Feasibility
What kinds of technology will we need?
• Some organizations like to use state-of-the-art
technology, but most prefer to use mature and
proven technology.
• A mature technology has a larger customer base for
obtaining advice concerning problems and
improvements.
Is the required technology available “in house”?
• If yes, does it have the capacity to handle the
solution?
• If the technology is not available, can it be acquired
What about obsolescence?
Any absorption issues?
Finally cost!
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(2) The Technical assessment variables
Project Execution Inputs
Alternatives
Work
Schedules Manf./Process
Contingency Association Appropriateness
Cash Technical
Plans
arrangements Types
Physical Guarantees
Material etc.
Charts &
Layouts Flows Aux. & utilities
Organization Cost Technology Product focus
Plant Product Mix
Capacity Policy Availability Process focus
Customer focus
Utilities Building Infrastructure Climate
Structure / Location
Construction Site Proximity
Legislation
Plant / Facility
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(3) Schedule Feasibility
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(3) Schedule Feasibility
How long will it take to get the technical expertise?
We may have the technology, but that doesn't mean we
have the skills required to properly apply that
technology.
• May need to hire new people
• Or re-train existing systems staff
• Whether hiring or training, it will impact the schedule
Assess the schedule risk:
Given our technical expertise, are the project
deadlines reasonable?
If there are specific deadlines, are they mandatory or
desirable?
• If the deadlines are not mandatory, the analyst can
propose several alternative schedules.
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(3) Schedule Feasibility
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(4) Operational Feasibility
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(4) Operational Feasibility
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(4) Operational Feasibility
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(5) Economic Feasibility
A measure of the cost-effectiveness of a project or
solution. This is often called a cost-benefit analysis.
• Is the project possible, given resource constraints?
• What are the benefits?
Both tangible and intangible - Quantify them!
• What are the development and operational costs?
• Are the benefits worth the costs?
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(5) Economic Feasibility
Estimating Financial Requirements
Identify contingency/escalation
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(5) Economic Feasibility - Analyzing Cost vs Benefit
Do cost/benefit analysis
Calculate Return on Investment:
• Allows comparison of lifetime profitability of
alternative solutions.
• ROI = (Total Profit/ Total Cost)
= (Lifetime benefits - Lifetime costs)/ Lifetime
costs
Calculate Break-Even point:
• how long will it take (in years) to pay back the
accrued costs:
@T (Accrued Benefit > Accrued Cost)
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(5) Economic Feasibility – Net Present Value
Present Value (PV)
• Today’s Value of Tomorrow’s earnings
• A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow.
The benefit to be realized sometime in the future is
reduced by the discount rate to determine its worth
today
• The discount rate measures opportunity cost: Money
invested in this project means money not available for
other things
This is company- and industry-specific: what is the
average annual return for investments in this inds
• It includes returns today + inflation in a period
(5) Economic Feasibility – Net Present Value
Present Value (PV)
Present Value:
“Current year” $ value for costs/benefits n years into the
future for a given discount rate i
Start of Project
How to Calculate NPV? investment
Oper’nl (200) (150) (125) 50 200 400 500 800 1200 1500
Net (1000) (650) (325) 50 200 400 500 800 1200 1500
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(5) Economic Feasibility – Net Present Value
Net Present Value Example
Should you invest $60,000 in a project that will return
$15,000 per year for five years? You have a minimum
return of 8% and expect inflation to hold steady at 3%
over the next five years.
The NPV
Year Net flow Discount NPV
column total
0 -$60,000 1.0000 -$60,000.00
is negative,
1 $15,000 0.9009 $13,513.51
so don’t
2 $15,000 0.8116 $12,174.34
invest!
3 $15,000 0.7312 $10,967.87
4 $15,000 0.6587 $9,880.96
5 $15,000 0.5935 $8,901.77
-$4,561.54
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(5) Economic Feasibility – Net Present Value
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(5) Economic Feasibility – Net Present Value
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(5) Economic Feasibility- BEP and Payback Period
Cash
Flow years
-ve
Payback period is the time to recoup the total cost
invested in the project - when the cumulative benefits
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(5) Economic Feasibility- BEP and Payback Period
Break-even point:
when does lifetime benefits overtake lifetime
costs?
Determine the fraction of a year when payback
actually occurs:
(beginningYr amt) / (endYr amt + beginningYr
amt)
In the example
51,611 / (70,501 + 51,611) = 0.42
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(5) Economic Feasibility- BEP and Payback Period
Payback Period Example
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(5) Eco Feasibility - Return on Investment (ROI)
ROI measures ratio of value of an investment to its cost.
ROI is calculated as follows:
(Est. lifetime benefits-Est lifetime costs)/ Est lifetime costs
or:
ROI = Net Present value / Estimated lifetime costs
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(5) Eco Feasibility - Return on Investment (ROI)
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(5) Eco Feasibility - IRR
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Options Models
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PROJECT MANAGEMENT
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Estimating Projects
• Estimating
Planning
PlanningHorizon
Horizon
Other
Other Project
Project
(Nonproject)
(Nonproject) Duration
Duration
Factors
Factors
Quality
Qualityof
of
Organization
Organization Estimates
Culture
Estimates People
People
Culture
Padding
Padding Project
ProjectStructure
Structure
Estimates
Estimates and
andOrganization
Organization
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Estimating Guidelines for Times, Costs, and
Resources
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Types of Estimates
• Order of Magnitude
• “seat of your pants” estimate with
very little thought or preparation
• Before it is stated, stress it is very
rough and limited in accuracy
• Budget Estimate
• More accurate and requires some
research
• Can use historical data
Types of Estimates
• Definitive Estimate
• Most accurate
• Use the WBS completed and tested for accuracy
• Include contingency allowances – lump sum amt.
• Includes: training, testing, travel, monitoring, etc.
• Pro Forma Assessments
• Initial profile of project costs
• Can be order of magnitude, budget, or definitive
estimates
• Are refined until there is a particular level of
comfort
Cost Estimating Approaches
• Bottom- up
• Most time consuming and most expensive
• Uses WBS where each task is estimated and
then added together as reverse upward.
• Tendency to “pad” as one goes
• Parametric Procedures Applied to Specific Tasks
• Using Industrial Engineering standards and
analysis
• Involves cost per sq. ft., linear foot, etc.
Cost Estimating Approaches
Project
Estimate
• Macro (Top-down) Approaches Times
• Consensus methods Costs
• Expert judgment
• Apportion method
• Learning curves
Refining Estimates
• Adjusting Estimates
• Time and cost estimates of specific activities are
adjusted as the risks, resources, and situation
particulars become more clearly defined.
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Estimate duration times
• Fairly certain if done before in other projects
• derive average duration from historical data
• Some projects books available containing mean
tables for typical activities
• Ask around
• When considering the time commitment to a
particular project, realistically, personnel (a
resource) has 80% of their personnel time
available, which is 4-6 hours of actual labor time
(sometimes one can only get 4-5 hrs per day)
while the rest of their time is involved with non-
project related issues.
RESOURCES
Estimate Resources
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Profitability Analysis
Number of factors are used to assess profitability
and hence make a project choice
• NPV Start of Profitability Analysis. Indicates
the current Value of future earnings. Uses
• Cash Flow Annual Cash Realisation to
indicate funding pattern which has its own
cost
• Breakeven Point When NPV is zero
• Payback Period The time for Breakeven after
which NPV is positive
• ROI Total Return on Investment at end of
Project life
• IRR Desired return which is same as desired
ROI. IRR is used instead of Discount Rate in
NPV calculations
NPV Analysis Guideline
Estimate NPV State assumptions
Source of Value Why this Value
Estimate Risk Question the assumptions
Scenario Analysis ‘What if’ on assumptions
Sensitivity Analysis How NPV varies with
variation of specific variables
Simulation Analysis Describing probability
distribution of NPV, taking off from Scenario
Analysis
Breakeven Analysis Guideline
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Example Matrix
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