• Concept of security in 21st Century.

• Power: Balance of Power, Elements of

National Power.
• Foreign Policy: Determinants, decision
making and analysis
• National Interest & Sovereignty
 Think .. and identify type of threat.
1.If you experience draughts and floods?

2.If enemies of Pakistan sabotage CPEC?

3.If India divert the flow of waters – destined for Pak?

4.If your society polarizes on sectarian, lingual, and

ethnic lines?

5.If there are frequent military coups in a country?

 Old concept of Security …

 “Security is absence of threat”. Arnold Wolfers

 Military Security against threats from other

countries. (hard military Threat)
 Security in 21st century.

 “Security is about the ability of a state to

maintain its independence, identity and functional
integrity”. Barry Buzan

 This concept of security is expansion from Military

to political, economic, societal, environmental
security.

 It is security against the soft threats that

emanates from within the country .
 How theories define security ..?

 “Power to reach a dominating position brings

security as a result”. Realism

 “Security as a result of peace”. Liberalism

 New Threats and new realization

 1973 oil crisis highlighted the significance of

economic security.

 Rapid climate change may lead to floods, famine,

draught, air pollution, acid rains,
deforestation, and food insecurity etc.
 New Threats and threat perception
 Ethno-nationalism and separatist tendencies.

 Rise of NSAs, 9/11 dramatically changed security

thinking of the world.

 Mastung incident, PTC Quetta, Bali Bombing, 7/7,

Paris Attacks, Mehran Base attacks, GHQ attacks,
APS Peshawar and many more.
 5 Sectors of security by Barry Buzan

Societal Security
 Identity and demographic issues (majority
Minority issue)

 Ethnic divisions is a threat in multi-ethnic societies.

 Migration/Refugees threatens communal identity

and culture by altering the ethnic, cultural religious
and linguistic composition of the population.
 Cultural transformation – Westernization.
 Political Security
 When state sovereignty is not challenged.

 There is no state with in a state.

 Successful power transfer from one govt. to other.

 Security against negative political transformation.

1. India can loose secularism to Hinduism.
2. American nationalism.
 Economic Security
 Least economic dependence.
 State must ensure revenues for state sustenance.
 Preference to industrialization.
 Policies must have compatibility with regional
and global economic rules – WTO, free market
economy etc.
 Example: US military power is not the cause of
US super power status it is consequence of its
economy.
 Military Security
 Having legal status of arms – IAEA etc.
 Having ability to defend militarily with
sophisticated Technology, Sufficient troops,
state of the art training, and will to fight.
Environment Security
 How climate change hits economy.
But still has security aspects;
 Environment degradation, draught, famines, Food
shortage, Land erosion, floods, Rains, earthquakes,
tsunamis, etc.
 Environment weapons like HAARP etc.
 National Security Mix in 21st century

 Military Capabilities,
 Economic and technological base,
 Democratic political system,
 Cohesive society,
 Strong allies,
 Borders with friendly states,
 Capitalist economy
 Stable social & welfare system.
Power: Elements
of National
Power
 Power

 “Ability to influence other” Joseph Nye

 “Power is the ability to influence the behaviour of

other to get the desired outcome”
 Types of Power
 Hard power = military power, war, use of force,
threat of use of force.

 Soft power is the ability to attract people to

your side without using force, Joseph Nye

 Smart Power combination of both powers.

USA uses smart power vis-à-vis Pak.
National Power

“The power and capability that a state uses to

achieve its national interests”.

Padelford & Lincoln

Elements of National Power

Tangible elements of National Power

1. Military capability,

2. Economy capability.

3. Geography,

4. Population and man power,

5. Industrial & Agricultural output,

7. Resources;
(Natural)
1.Coal 2. Iron 3. Oil 4. Gas 5. Water
(Human Resources)
Capital/Labour
 Intangible Elements of National Power

 Stable Political & Economic System

 Scientific & Technological base of Education

 National Morals & National Character;

 Leadership

 International standing

 Internal Cohesion

 Bureaucratic & diplomatic efficiency

Balance of Power

“An even distribution of power”.

 “The equilibrium of the power among states in

such a way that no state has dominance over
other”.
 Balance of Power
How Balancing is done?
Either by diminishing the weight of the heavier
state or by increasing the weight of the lighter one.

(1) Divide and Rule

 For this purpose third party is necessary that may
exercise its authority with force.
 Employed by nations who want to keep the
competitor weak, e .g. UK, France with
Germany and Ottomans after WWI & WWII.
 (2) Armaments/Disarmament
 The purpose of armament of a nation is to keep up
A by keeping nation B down.

 For both a quantitative evaluation (arms) is

required.
(3) Alliances

 Can add to their own power with the power of other

nations. (Alliance)
 (4) Intervention

 Russian intervention in Georgia 2008 &

Ukraine.

 Indian intervention in East Pakistan 1971

 (5) Buffer States

 A buffer state is a small or weak state laying

between two rival great powers.
 It prevents conflict between them.
 A buffer state is a mutually agreed upon area.

Poland between USSR and Germany

Afghanistan between Britain and USSR
The “Balancer” (who holds the balance)

 The balancer occupies the key position in the BOP

system, since its position determines the
outcome of the competition of the power.
 It decides who will win or lose?
 Which country can be a balancer B/W;
1. India and China?
2. China and US?
3. Iran and Saudi Arabia?
Foreign Policy: Determinants,
decision making and analysis
Foreign Policy
“Strategies that governments use to guide their
actions in the international arena to pursue and
protect national interests in given situations.”

 FP is designed to Project, protect, and promote

the national interest abroad.
 Foreign refers to things that exist beyond the
territorial boundaries
 Policy can be referred to as the guidelines and
approaches to achieve the objectives.
 Stages in foreign policy decision making

 1Assessment of the international and domestic political

environment.

 2 Goal setting.

 3 Determination of policy options.

 4 Formal decision making process.

 5 Implementation of chosen policy option.

 Factors influencing the Foreign Policy

External Factors;
 A country’s position in international power structure

 Geographic Location

 World public opinion/Public Perception

 Alliances
 Internal Factors;

 Military Power

 Size, Geography, and resources

 Leadership (Trump, Modi, Putin)

 Quality of Diplomacy

 Role of Media and Think Tanks

Graham Allison’s three
models of Foreign Policy
Decision Making;
1- Rational Actor Model

1. Defining & analyze the problem

2. Prioritizing the Goal
3. Developing alternatives
4. Evaluating each alternatives
5. Selecting the best options
6. Execution of decision
Rational Actor Model
 2 - Organizational Process Model (OPM)

 Leadership cannot make decision on its own.

 Best for satisfactory decision making.

 Decision making is done by qualified and

professional individuals using SOPs.

 SOPs enhance efficiency.

 (3) Bureaucratic Model.
 This model explains the relationship between
Bureaucrats and elite politicians.

 Key individuals in critical positions have great

influence.

 They have different priorities.

 They have different organizational positions and

commitments:
 National Interest
 The goals that states pursue to maximize what they
perceive to be selfishly best for their country.
 The most important national interest is the
survival of the state.
 Security, Stability, Prosperity are the cherished
national interest of every nation

“Political traditions and political cultural context with

in which a nation formulates its foreign policy”.
H. J. Morgenthau
 Types of National Interests

 Primary: physical (territorial integrity), cultural

identity, guarding against external aggression.

 Secondary: protection of diaspora living abroad.

 General: in the field of trade, diplomacy and

international law.
 Sovereignty

 Sovereignty: A government has the right, in

principle, to do whatever it wants in its own
territory.

 The principle of supreme authority within a

territory

 In modern times, sovereignty is almost inextricably

bound with territoriality.
 Internal. External
 It is indivisible, absolute, permanent, and cannot
be transferred – “Rousseau”

 For Liberals sovereignty is defined in terms of the

state’s ability to control activities within and
across its borders.

 For realists the essence of sovereignty is the

state’s ability to make authoritative decisions the
decision to make wars.
 Questions …
 Foreign Policy decision making is a complex
process, which decision making model is followed
in Pakistan and why?

 What are the determinants of foreign Policy of

Pakistan?

 Suggest steps for Pakistan to keep the Balance of

Power in South Asia vis-à-vis India.