Land use – Transportation

Integrated models (The competition

to ILUTE)

MAMAMIA - module 3

ILUTE
Microsimulation
experiences
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Introduction
• A sort of definition- Integrated land use-
transportation models attempt to predict the
dynamics of land use patterns and travel
patterns, and their interactions.
• The spatial location of land use constitutes the
choice set from which each individual can choose
where to perform his activities.
• Land use patterns influence activity travel
patterns, through providing opportunities and
constituting constraints.
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• The choice of a destination is important for the
feasibility of a particular function at a particular
location. If there is a shift to a different activity
location, there will be a change in land use
patterns and as a result a second change to
travel behavior.
All the above should have made the field very
attractive to research and practice. However…
• Integrated land use-transportation models has
always been a weak field of interest in
comparison to transport demand, which usually
treat land uses as exogenous.
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Why the field is so under appreciated?
• It is inherently very complex and thus difficult to
model
• Models require a tremendous amount of data,
and time before any test can be performed.
• Models are expensive to implement - a big
investment in people, data and equipment is
required
• The models support mainly long term and
strategic planning decisions. Such decisions are
infrequent in most urban areas - the return on
investment is potentially low.
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Field Overview
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The first wave –aggregate spatial

interaction based models
• Aggregated models
• Without any or with Partial transportation
side
• Gravity models

• Lowry, Garin, TOMM, PLUM,

ITLUP/DRAM/EMPAL/METROPILUS, IRPUD*, LILT*
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Lowry
• Three types of sectors - population, service
employment and manufacturing employment.
• Three types of corresponding land uses –
residential, service and industrial.
• The model allocates activities to zones according
to the potential of the zone, subject to capacity
constraints and maximum density.
• Time treatment- all activities respond to changes
in potential in a given period.
TOMM- same model structure, but disaggregated
population into a few socio economic groups.
Time treatment- only a certain proportion
respond in the first year, to account for inertia.
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The second wave – utility maximizing
multinomial logit based models
• Combinations of aggregate and
disaggregate
• Modules involving logit and microsimulation
• Elaborated transportation microsimulation

• MEPLAN, TRANUS, BASS/CUF, MUSSA/RUBAN,

CATLAS/METROSIM, DELTA, UrbanSim, IMREL,
TILT, Uplan
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The third wave – towards activity
based, microsimulation models
• Mostly disaggregate
• Microsimulation oriented
• Very focused on activity

• ILUTE, Ramblas, ILUMASS, The Irvine simulation

models
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Ramblas
• Simulates the whole Dutch population (16m).
• input to the model is the distribution of types of HH across
the different kinds of dwellings per zone and the dwelling
distribution in the zone. These variables and their changes
are external.
• Attributes of zones are variables that can be manipulated
by planning.
• The spatial distribution of activities and trips are treated as
dependent variables. Thus policy decisions that will affect
zone attributes will change activity patterns
• The micro simulation occurs in two steps. In the first
agendas are chosen for each simulated individual. In the
second step a schedule and location for each activity is
being determined.
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MEPLAN
Treatment of space- the state of Oregon and a
ring of 50 miles surrounding it, is divided to three
space unit types. Each space definition is used in
different parts of the model. Each of these forms
covers the whole of the model area.
• Grid cells- (14.5m) are 30m*30m in built areas
and 300*300 otherwise. Each cell represents only
one land use.
• Link tributary areas- containing the O-D of trips
feeding the links in the transport system
• Zones- roughly traffic zones (about 3200).
Connected to the transport network using
centroid connectors
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MEPLAN-CONT.

Treatment of time- the model evolves by yearly

steps.
• The characteristics of the system in year t+1 are
partly influenced by the conditions in year t.
• Some of the simulation processes evolve through
shorter than one year time steps, so they are
performed a number of times within a one year
period.
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MEPLAN-CONT.
Mechanics of the system- the behavior of
individuals and groups is based on utility values.
A utility value is a dependent value in a utility
function; the utility function is constructed
through alternative attributes and individual
sensitivities.
Five different categories of utility are defined:
• “Rutility”- allocate aggregate quantities. Attribute
variables are either average or zonal, while
sensitivity values are typical values for the
category of aggregate quantity being allocated
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MEPLAN-CONT.
• “Zutility”- used for agent based microsimulation
of individuals and households, the attribute
values are average or zonal, but the sensitivity
values are specific to the person or HH
• Two other utility values are used for traffic
assignments where one is for aggregate zone to
zone flows and the other is for path selection of
individuals
• “Cutility”- used for microsimulation of land
development decisions. The attribute values are
cell specific while the sensitivity values are typical
values assigned to the developers as a category
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MEPLAN-CONT.

Model structure- The model is constructed of

seven separate modules. Each of The modules is
connected to the data store component and
through it to each of the other components.
This design allows flexibility since it allows
different approaches in each component:
equilibrium or disequilibrium, aggregate or
disaggregate and statistical models or
microsimulation
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MEPLAN Modules
1. Regional economics and demographics-
provides regional control totals for production
and import-export by economic sector, migration
etc.
The module requires exogenous forecasts as
inputs and includes simple macroeconomic
models to assist with trade flow predictions.
The module is a combination of econometric and
input-output models
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2. Production allocations and interactions- The module
determines the total regional production of all sectors and
then allocates them.
Commodities (goods, services, labor and space) flow from
production locations to exchange locations to consumption
locations.
Exchange locations (fictitious) represent the places where
prices for those commodities are being set. Prices for each
commodity in each zone are updated based on demand
and supply
The allocation to locations is being done through logit
models that take into account the exchange prices and the
transportation costs.
The ability of labor supply to change in each zone beyond
certain limits in a given year is constrained.
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3. Household Allocations Module- determines for

each year:
• Changes in HH and members characteristics
• Specific sensitivities
• HH actions regarding home location
• Car ownership change
• Employment and school status and location for
each HH member
The module works through microsimulation of
each HH member in each time period
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4. Land development Module- determines the

changes from one year to the next.
• The supply of built space is fixed for a given year.
• Other modules determine the prices of different
spaces in each zone based on supply; the land
development model has to adjust the quantity of
space in the zone over time in response to price
changes.
• The process is done for each grid cell.
• Logit models determine whether a cell will be
redeveloped, if so into what type of space and the
quantity of the new development in the cell.
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5. Commercial movements Module- determines truck
movement during a representative workday for each
year.
• A fully disaggregate list of truck movement is
synthesized providing:
– vehicle type
– start and end links
– starting time
– commodity carried for each truck

The origin and destination of each truck is

randomly attributed to particular grid cell that
have a consistent space type with the shipped
commodity
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6. Household travel Module- creates a list of
specific individual trips during a representative
workday for each year.
• For each trip:
– start and end links
– starting time
– tour mode
– vehicle occupancy if auto mode
The process starts with scheduling of activities for
each household member (first activity pattern
then duration).
Each home based and work based tour is
considered separately.
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7. Transport supply Module- determines

transportation network loadings given transport
demands from household and commercial travel
modules.
• It uses a micro assignment at the level of the
individual vehicle and traveler.
• Primary mode of trip dictates which network links
are available for the trip.
• In the first stage of the trip assignment an
aggregated zone to zone assignment is done. The
equilibrium set of links is the starting point of the
micro simulation assignment.
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UrbanSim
Treatment of space-location is determined using
grid cells of 150 by 150 meters, the cell size can
be modified
• The location grid allows explicit cross referencing
of other spatial features including planning and
political boundaries such as city, county, traffic
zones, and urban growth boundaries, as well as
environmentally sensitive areas
• Each cell is classified according to its main
development type and the density of the
development in it
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UrbanSim cont.
The data store represents each household in the
metropolitan area as an individual object, with
the primary characteristics relevant to modeling
location and travel behavior:
– household size
– number of workers
– presence of children
– household income, etc
• The household list is synthesized by integrating
census household-level data.
• Employment is represented in the data store as
individual records for each job and its
employment sector.
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• The data store maintains an explicit accounting of
real estate and occupants, linking individual
households to individual housing units, and
individual jobs to job spaces.
• When jobs or households are predicted to move,
the space they occupy is flagged as becoming
vacant, and when they are assigned to a
particular housing unit or job space, that space is
reclassified as occupied.
• The integrated data store of households, jobs,
land, and real estate is what the model
components update over time.
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• Some of the models, such as the economic and
demographic transition models, are aggregate,
nonspatial models. Other components, such as
location choice, are discrete choice models of an
agent making choices about alternative locations.
• Inputs to the model include:
– base year data store
– control totals derived from regional economic forecasts
from an external macroeconomic model
– travel access indicators derived from external travel
demand models
– scenario policy assumptions regarding development
constraints arising from land use plans
– environmental constraints etc.
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• The individual modules are:
– An accessibility module which predicts the pattern of
accessibility by auto ownership level
– An Economic and Demographic Transition Module predicts the
creation or loss of households and jobs by type
– Household and Employment Mobility module predicts the
movement of households or jobs within the region
– Household and Employment Location Choice module predicts
the location choices of households and jobs from the available
vacant real estate
– Real Estate Development module, the location, type, and
quantity of new construction and redevelopment by developers
– Land Price module determines the price of land at each
location
The Model Coordinator, manages the individual model
components and handles the scheduling and
implementation of events.
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UrbanSim cont.
• The model interprets the cumulative impact of the
policies by reflecting the most restrictive policies
that apply to a given grid cell.
• In addition to development constraints, the
scenario inputs include regional control totals from
the external macroeconomic models and
assumptions about the space utilization rates
(such as square feet per employee for different
development types).
• Transportation policy assumptions are
incorporated in the external transportation model
and are embedded in the travel time and utility
outputs from the travel model that UrbanSim uses
to calculate accessibility
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UrbanSim cont.
The link between the model and the Travel
Demand Model System is two way. Different
accessibility values from the travel model will
influence the decisions agents make resulting in
different travel demand. This new demand will
feed back into the travel model.
The external travel models provide travel times
and utilities to the Accessibility Model.
The travel model is run to simulate a typical day
every 5 years. This is due to the long running
time of the model and the slow change in its
products.
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Problems of integrated land use –
transportation models
• Many models remain aggregate in nature and therefore are
more of entropy maximization models than discrete choice
utility maximization models.
• The field is behind in applying state of the art spatial choice
models
• The behavioral and theoretical foundations of the field are
still weak. Theory has been mostly borrowed instead of
developed to specifically address the questions the field
faces.
• Models are often criticized as being black-box models
because of their complexity
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Questions
• The behavior of search- does individuals are
really utility maximizers? (full knowledge, variety
searching etc.)
• Business establishments- Should there be
microsimulation of firms? (How do firms appear
and disappear? How can we model the variety in
firm sizes, production functions, management?)
• Motivations- Activities do not arise of their own,
they arise out of motivations to satisfy different
needs. Should we model motivations?
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• Perception of space- How do agents perceive
location alternatives in space? How does the
knowledge and accuracy of location vary across
space? Is there a strong relation between
distance and search cost (could it be used as a
filter alternative)?
• Sensitivities- Does a long exposure to an
alternative changes sensitivities to the attributes
of that alternative? Do campaigns have effects
on sensitivities in the long or short run and what
are those effects?
• Public agencies- Hunt’s suggestion is to
introduce an authority agent.
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The End
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