wien – fmub 2013

Dimana posisi hipotesis?

Logika

Deduktif

Pustaka Rational Prediktif

Ilmu
Empiris HIPOTESIS
Pengetahuan

Induktif Uji hipotesis

Analisis Metode
Statistik Fakta

How To Get Science

 HYPOTHESIS

What is HYPOTHESIS ?

A tentative statement about the relation of the

probably cause with the problems

PROBLEM: why the body temperature of the patient is high?

HYPOTHESIS : “Salmonella Typhi infection is the probable

etiology of the high body temperature”
Hypothesis (theoretical meaning)

1. Incomplete / hasn’t established statement (hypo),

in term of the “truth”  so, must be tested
2. The most probably answer / explanation of research
problem
3. Theoretical conclusion derived from literature study
(temporary answer)
4. It’s a “intellectual prediction”  is needed for
experimental & observational analytic research
Hypothesis (technical meaning)
Statements about parameters / variables will be
tested its validity empirically using collected
sample
Can assist the design  may be:
correlational study
comparative study
Is hypothesis always needed ?
Survey, explorative and case study (descriptive)
usually hypothesis is not needed

Mostly, the purpose of medical or health

research is to know the relation between variables

hypothesis is important
HYPOTHESIS
A prediction from reference which is described and
accepted for a moment, that can explain the facts
observed, and can be used as a guide to do research
(Good and Scates, 1954)
Some temporary explanation about the facts which
can be observed (Trelease, 1960)
The statement that it predicts the relation between
two or more variables (Kerlinger, 1973)
Fungsi Hipotesis
1. Menguji kebenaran teori
2. Memberikan ide untuk memperluas
teori
3. Memperluas pengetahuan tentang
fenomena yang diamati
Hypothesis benefits

1. Gives the limitation towards scope and research working

2. Reminds about condition of the fact and the relation
between the facts which is observed
3. As a simple tool to focus the facts into unity
4. As a guidance to do the verification process
Good Hypothesis
1. is described in declarative sentence that is clear and
the simple one
2. has strong theoritical base or concept
3. declare the relation between dependent variable and
independent variables
4. possible to be tested empirically
5. should be specific and show the variables that will
be measured
6. is described before start the research
Good hypothesis are affected by:

Smart observation of the researcher

Imagination and creative thinking of
the researcher
Analysis framework that is used

Methods and design will be choosen

Hypothesis should be developed through
strong theoritical base, experience, other
strong scientific resources

One hypothesis is allowed for one

independent
variable

 For complicated hypothesis  must be

divided
Example :
“ Education level of mother has contribution role
towards growth and development of child”

simple but that can not be tested by only

one hypothesis

Divided into 2 sub-hypothesis:

1. The education level of mother associated with the child growth
2. The education level of mother associated with the child
development
Bad hypothesis:
“ The child who is never communicated with adult
people
will be have severe mental retardation ”

can not be tested empirically

• Formula which is too general and more than one
meaning must be avoided:
“ Giving drug X can cure gastrointestinal function disorder”

which one of gastrointestinal function

(digestion, absorbtion, or excretion)
?
Hypothesis fault
Hypothesis statement which is to risk:
“ Studying do not affect the students
performance”
from the data collected there was evidence that

students who did not study also can be passed


the hypothesis was proved  the conclusion by
students: studying is not useful

it will have destruction effect

(this is caused by error in describe hypothesis)
Hypothesis can be derived from data base record
 HYPOTHESIS GENERATING RESEARCH

e.g. From the medical record in RSSA, there are 30 patients

with congenital heart disease  generates hypothesis

For the hypothesis testing, should be used the other

samples set

When a researcher to find out whether an association

among the variables generates hypothesis  to test
the hypothesis using the same data  DATA DREDGING
is outlaw
 HYPOTHESIS TYPES
1. RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS
- is aimed to make a prediction about the
occuring
phenomenon
e.g.
“ When the environment sanitazion is not
good,thus transmitted disease at those area is high”
“ There is an influence of smoking towards the
incidence of lung cancer “
2. STATISTICAL HYPOTHESIS
H null (Ho) & H alternative (Ha or H1)

Ho  means there is no difference between ... and....

e.g. “There is no difference between mortality rate

of heart disease in urban and rural”
“ There is no relationship between smokes
and lung cancer”

Ha /H1  means there is a difference / relationship

 usually, it is the research hypothesis

 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
Is the answer to the questions true ?
A Scientific Hypothesis Testing

1. Formulate THE HYPOTHESIS

2. Identify and formulate THE VARIABLES
3. Choose the best and efficient way (DESIGN) to collect
the data based on your hypothesis
4. Choose the RIGHT METHODS TO ANALYSE AND
INTERPRET
5. Make the right CONCLUSION: is the hypothesis true
or false ?
Hypothesis testing
means a statistical pocedure to show the validity of
the hypothesis
due to the research to be done at the samples (not
at population), while researcher want to generalize
the conclusion towards population
Hypothesis testing is done/started by Ho statement :
Is it evidence (by facts) enough to refuse Ho, and
that so Ha /H1 will be achieved ?

is interpretated through p (probability) value

There is probability to do an error in hypothesis

testing
 Error type I (α = significance / confidence level):
- the chance to reject hypothesis in samples,
but the hypothesis is correct in population
- determined previously by researcher
- α value: 0.01 ;0.05; 0.1

• Error type II (β ):
- the chance to accept hypothesis but in fact the
hypothesis is incorrect

α and β value can be reduced by increasing

samples
The types of error
Conclusion and The facts
Decision (in population)
Hypothesis Hypothesis is
is correct incorrect

Accept no error Error type II

Hypothesis (β)

Reject Error type I no error

Hypothesis (α ) ‘power of study’
 VARIABLES
Is the characteristic of subject (not that subject)
variety
e.g. type of sex, body weight, blood pressure
The types of variable is important due to related with
data collecting and analysis technique

Scale of variables
1. Categorical: nominal, and ordinal scale
2. Numerical : interval, and ratio scale
Type of variables (based on its function)
1. Independent & Dependent Variable
 Independent variable (risk, predictor, causa):
- it’s change will alter other variable
 Dependent Variabel (effect, outcome, event):
- variable which will be changed caused by
changes of independent variable

Examples :
Treatment by drug A decreasing blood pressure
iv dv
Cholesterol level different between male
student and female student
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One type variable may has different function based
on research content
examples:

Heredity
Salt
consumption Hypertension Death

Smokes
Obesity

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2. Confounding variable
Is the variable which has association with DV and
also with IV but it’s not an intermediate variable
Identify toward confounding factor is important since it
can cause wrong result.
e.g. it can be concluded there is association between
the variables but may be there is no association

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Relationship between variables

Independ var. Outside var.

= risk Depend Variabel
= intervention = regressed
=ecausa = effect
= regressor = outcome
= treatment
Interme = event
= predictor diate var = respons

Outside var.
Confounding Outside var.
Variabel
Outside var.
Outside var.

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Confounding

Coffee
Coronary heart
consumption
disease

Smoking

There is an spurious association between coffee

consumption and coronary heart disease

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Confounding

Candy
Dental carries

Brush teeth

Association between candy consumption with dental

carries will be hidden because of brushing habit

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Exercise
Ingin diteliti efek imunostimulan bawang putih pada
mencit
a. Sebutkan variabel yang akan diamati (diukur)
b Bagaimana hipotesis yang baik?
Ingin diteliti efek ekstrak kencur sebagai anti kanker
secara in vitro
Hipotesis yang baik:
……………………………………………………………………..
Selamat belajar

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