Professional Documents
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Forecasting
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2012 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter 3: Learning Objectives
3-2
Forecast
3-3
Two Important Aspects of Forecasts
3-4
Features Common to All Forecasts
3-5
Elements of a Good Forecast
The forecast
should be timely
should be accurate
should be reliable
should be expressed in meaningful units
should be in writing
technique should be simple to understand and use
should be cost effective
3-6
Steps in the Forecasting Process
“The forecast”
MAD
MAD
Actual t Forecast t
Easy to compute
n Weights errors linearly
MSE
Actual t Forecast t
2
3-9
Forecast Error Calculation
Sum 13 39 11.23%
3-10
Forecasting Approaches
Qualitative Forecasting
Qualitative techniques permit the inclusion of soft
information such as:
Human factors
Personal opinions
Hunches
These factors are difficult, or impossible, to quantify
Quantitative Forecasting
Quantitative techniques involve either the projection
of historical data or the development of associative
methods that attempt to use causal variables to make a
forecast
These techniques rely on hard data
3-11
Time-Series Forecasts
3-12
Time-Series Behaviors
Trend
Seasonality
Cycles
Irregular variations
Random variation
3-13
Time-Series Behaviors
Irregular
variation
Random
Trend variations
Cycles
14
15
16
Seasonal variations
3-14
Time-Series Forecasting - Naïve Forecast
Naïve Forecast
Uses a single previous value of a time series as the basis
for a forecast
The forecast for a time period is equal to the previous
time period’s value
Can be used with
a stable time series Uh, give me a minute.. We sold 250
seasonal variations wheels last week.... Now, next week
trend we should sell....
3-15
Naïve Forecasts
Data with trends Example
3-16
Time-Series Forecasting - Averaging
3-17
Moving Average
A t i
Ft MA n i 1
n
where
Ft Forecast for time period t
MA n n period moving average
At 1 Actual value in period t 1
n Number of periods in the moving average
3-18
Moving Average
3-19
Moving Average
As new data become available, the forecast is
updated by adding the newest value and dropping
the oldest and then re-computing the average
The number of data points included in the
average determines the model’s sensitivity
Fewer data points used-- more responsive
More data points used-- less responsive MA5
MA3
Actual
3-20
Weighted Moving Average
The most recent values in a time series are given
more weight in computing a forecast
The choice of weights, w, is somewhat arbitrary
and involves some trial and error
Ft 1 wt ( At ) wt 1 ( At 1 ) ... wt n ( At n )
where
wt weight for period t ,
wt 1 weight for period t 1, etc.
At the actual value for period t ,
At 1 the actual value for period t 1, etc.
3-21
Example 2
3-22
Exponential Smoothing
3-24
Solution
a) The values are stable (i.e., no trend or cycles).
Therefore, the most recent value of the series
becomes the next forecast: 64
b)
c)
d)
3-25
Picking a Smoothing Constant
Period Actual Alpha = 0.1 Error Alpha = 0.4 Error
1 42
2 40 42 -2.00 42 -2
3 43 41.8 1.20 41.2 1.8
4 40 41.92 -1.92 41.92 -1.92
5 41 41.73 -0.73 41.15 -0.15
6 39 41.66 -2.66 41.09 -2.09
7 46 41.39 4.61 40.25 5.75
8 44 41.85 2.15 42.55 1.45
9 45 42.07 2.93 43.13 1.87
10 38 42.36 -4.36 43.88 -5.88
11 40 41.92 -1.92 41.53 -1.53
12 41.73 40.92
50 Actual .4
.1
D e m a nd
45
40
35
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period 3-26
Linear Trend
Ft a bt
where
Ft Forecast for period t
a Value of Ft at t 0
b Slope of the line
t Specified number of time periods from t 0
3-27
Estimating slope and intercept
a
y b t
or y bt
n
where
n Number of periods
y Value of the time series
3-28
Example
Calculate the Linear trend Equation for the
following set of sales data
Week Sales t 2 y ty
t
t y Week Sales
1 150 1 1 150 150
2 157 2 4 157 314
3 162
4 166
3 9 162 486
5 177 4 16 166 664
5 25 177 885
3-29
Linear Trend Calculation
812 - 6.3(15)
a = = 143.5
5
y = 143.5 + 6.3t
3-30
Associative Forecasting Techniques
3-31
Simple Linear Regression
3-32
Least Squares Line
minimizes sum of squared deviations around the line
yc a bx
where
yc Predicted (dependent) variable
x Predictor (independe nt) variable
b Slope of the line
a Value of yc when x 0 (i.e., the height of the line at the y intercept)
and
n xy x y
b
n x2 x
2
a
y b x
or y b x
n
where
n Number of paired observatio ns
3-33
Simple Linear Regression
X Y
7 15 Computed
2 10
6 13 relationship
4 15 50
14 25 40
15 27 30
16 24 20
12 20 10
14 27 0
0 5 10 15 20 25
20 44
15 34 A straight line is fitted to a set of sample points.
7 17
3-34
Formulas
n (x.y) - x y
x y
b = (wins) (attendance, 1,000s) xy x2
2 2
n x - ( x) 4
6
36.3
40.1
145.2 16
240.6 36
6 41.2 247.2 36
8 53.0 424.0 64
y - bx 6
7
44.0
45.6
264.0 36
319.2 49
a= 5 39.0 195.0 25
n 7 47.5 332.5 49
49 346.7 2,167.7 311
Yx = a + bx
y 18.46 4.06x
3-35
Choosing a Forecasting Technique
Factors to consider
Cost
Accuracy
Availability of historical data
Availability of forecasting software
Time needed to gather and analyze data
and prepare a forecast
Forecast horizon
3-36
Using Forecast Information
Reactive approach
View forecasts as probable future demand
React to meet that demand
Proactive approach
Seeks to actively influence demand
Advertising
Pricing
Product/service modifications
Generally requires either an explanatory model
or a subjective assessment of the influence on
demand
3-37
Operations Strategy
The better forecasts are, the more able
organizations will be to take advantage of future
opportunities and reduce potential risks
A worthwhile strategy is to work to improve short-term
forecasts
Accurate up-to-date information can have a
significant effect on forecast accuracy:
Prices
Demand
Other important variables
Reduce the time horizon forecasts have to cover
Sharing forecasts or demand data through the
supply chain can improve forecast quality
3-38