Fault Tree Analysis

(FTA)
• Fault-Tree analysis is a graphical technique that ensures a systematic-
description of the combinations of possible occurrences in a system,
which can result in an undesirable outcome
• It focuses on one particular accident event and provides a method for
determining causes of that event
• Fault Trees are deductive method for identifying ways in which
hazards can lead to accident
• Fault tree is constructed by relating the sequences of events, which
individually (or in combination), could lead to the top-event
• Constructing a tree with AND and OR logic gates
• AND-gate implies that both initial events need to occur in order to
give rise to the intermediate event
• OR-gate means that either of two initial events can give rise to the
intermediate event
Event Tree Analysis
(ETA)
• It is called an event tree because the graphical presentation of sequenced
events grows like a tree as the number of events increase. An event tree
consists of an initiating event, probable subsequent events and final results
caused by the sequence of events.
• Event trees begin with an initiating event & work towards the final result,
an inductive approach
• Consequences of the event are followed through a series of possible paths,
where each path is assigned, a probability of occurrence, while the
probability of the various possible outcomes can be calculated
• Probable subsequent events are independent to each other and the
specific final result depends only on the initiating event and the
subsequent events following
Outcome 1= 0.01*0.9*0.7*0.8= 0.00504
Outcome 2= 0.01*0.9*0.7*0.2= 0.00126
Outcome 3= 0.01*0.9*0.3*0.8= 0.00216
Outcome 4= 0.01*0.9*0.3*0.2= 0.00006
Outcome 5= 0.01*0.1= 0.001