Monetary policy and market outlook (if we have time)
SDA Bocconi Asia Center I Capital Markets
Overview
SDA Bocconi Asia Center I Capital Markets
Sources of Long-Term Capital
SDA Bocconi Asia Center I Capital Markets
Characteristics of Debt Financing Characteristics: Maturity Spread repayments over time; try to match duration of investments
Fixed / Floating rates
When do you go with a floating? Expectations matter
International character: domestic vs. international placement Currency of denomination
SDA Bocconi Asia Center I Capital Markets
Debt Denomination: De/Centralized Should we care if the UIP holds?
What are the benefits of decentralizing?
Lower costs Diversification across currencies
SDA Bocconi Asia Center I Capital Markets
The Characteristics of Debt Instruments
The international character of debt
Domestic bonds Bonds that are issued and traded in domestic market (country is country of currency denomination) International bonds Bonds traded outside the country of the issuer Foreign Bonds – issued in domestic market by a foreign borrower (Ex. Indian company issuing $ bond in the USA) Denominated in the currency of the targeted country [WHY?] Marketed to domestic residents Regulated by domestic authorities Eurobond – mature in less than 10 yrs (usually 5) Denominated in one or more currencies Traded in external markets outside the borders of the countries issuing the currencies
SDA Bocconi Asia Center I Capital Markets
Bond Markets are HUGE!
SDA Bocconi Asia Center I Capital Markets
International Bonds: Players and Tastes
SDA Bocconi Asia Center I Capital Markets
Cost of Debt
SDA Bocconi Asia Center I Capital Markets
All-in-Cost Principle The Cost of a loan has 3 components: Risk-free rate (driven by monetary policy and macro-factors) Credit Spread (driven by both country- and company-specific default risk) Transaction costs
Notice: hedging the currency on foreign debt matters!
Example for General Electric: Credit spread = 1% in India or 1% in USA US LIBOR 1.9%; M(umbai)IBOR = 6.3%; -> (Forward- Spot)/Spot ≈ -4.4% The INR (USD) is at a discount (premium) on forward market If GE borrows in USA, the cost is: 2.9% If GE borrows India, the cost is ≈ 6.3% + 1% - 4.4% = 2.9%
SDA Bocconi Asia Center I Capital Markets
THANKS YOU
SDA Bocconi Asia Center I Capital Markets
If We Have Time
SDA Bocconi Asia Center I Capital Markets
Outlook IMF / OECD
SDA Bocconi Asia Center I Capital Markets
SDA Bocconi Asia Center I Capital Markets SDA Bocconi Asia Center I Capital Markets SDA Bocconi Asia Center I Capital Markets SDA Bocconi Asia Center I Capital Markets 2019 EMs
SDA Bocconi Asia Center I Capital Markets 2019 EU + US