PRESENTED BY:

AMRUTH .KARJIGI
08MS01F
NIT-K,SURATHKAL
1
 OVERVIEW
1. INTRODUCTION

2. ADVANTAGES OF NEURAL NETWORKS

3. ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

4. ANN OVER CONVENTIONAL METHODS

5. FACTORS AFFECTING WATER LEVEL CHANGES

6. CASE STUDY:GULF OF MEXICO

7. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

8. LIMITATIONS

9. FUTURE SCOPE OF STUDY

10. CONCLUSIONS

11. REFERENCES

2
 OBJECTIVE

“To predict water level anomaly at different

lead times by using soft computing technique

such as artificial neural networks.”

3
 1.INTRODUCTION
• Water level anomaly stands for the difference
between the actual water levels and
harmonically predicted tidal levels.

• Forecasting the water level correctly is an

important issue for safe navigation, coastal
protection, emergency management.

4
 2.ADVANTAGES OF NEURAL NETWORKS
• Neural network create their own
relationship among data - no formal
description required!

• They handle very well noisy or missing data.

• It is not a program but instead training the

input data and testing for other data.

5
3.ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

6
BIOLOGICAL NEURON
 HOW DO THEY WORK

Ij=W1X1+ W2X2+ W3X3+ W4X4+…………. + WnXn

Ij = + ) ………. (Summation -1)
Y j = f (I j) ……………..(Transfer- 2) 7
TRANSFER FUNCTIONS

8
 ARCHITECTURE OF NEURAL NETWORK

FEED FOWARD FEEDBACK

NETWORKS NETWORKS

9
NETWORK LAYERS

10
TRAINING AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL
NETWORK

11
SUPERVISED LEARNING

12
BACK PROPAGATION NETWORKS 

13
BACK PROPAGATION LEARNING

14
ADJUSTING THE WEIGHTS OF THE HIDDEN
LAYERS

15
METHOD OF STEEPEST DESCENT

16
 LEARNING RATE

(a) η=1.5 (b) η=0.2

(c) η=0.9 17
 NEURAL NETWORK IMPLEMENTATION
Computational process involving neural network
involves following steps.
• Development of neural models (Structure).
• Models of synaptic connection & structure
(Network Topology).
• Select a neural learning algorithm suitable for
given application.
• Define a detailed training set.
• Train the neural network.
• Validation of neural network with test data.
18
SOFTWARES FOR ANN

19
 SOFTWARE
• MATLAB

20
 TRAINING GRAPH FOR VARIOUS
ALGORITHMS IN MATLAB
Performance is 0.0011146, Goal is 1e-005
1
10

0
10
TRAIN GDX
-1
10
Training-Blue Goal-Black

Performance is 0.00129451, Goal is 1e-005

-2 1
10 10

-3 0
10 10

-4 -1
10 10

Training-Blue Goal-Black
-5 -2
10 10

-6 -3
10 10
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
1000 Epochs
-4
10

TRAIN GDA -5
10

-6
10
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
1000 Epochs

21
 Performance is 7.31422e-006, Goal is 1e-005
1
10

0
10

-1
10
Training-Blue Goal-Black

-2
10

-3
10
TRAIN LM
-4
10

-5 Performance is 3.13904e-010, Goal is 1e-005

10

0
-6 10
10
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
379 Epochs
-2
10

Training-Blue Goal-Black -4
10

-6
10

TRAN CGB
-8
10

-10
10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 22 90
92 Epochs
 4.ANN OVER CONVENTIONAL
METHODS
• The statistical approaches are model driven, where
as ANNs belong to data driven approach.
• Conventional methods are laborious mathematical
computations.
• Conventional methods are inferior in non-liner
relationships.

23
5.FACTORS AFFECTING WATER LEVEL
CHANGES
• Climatological and metrological disturbances.

• Tidal changes.

• Wind velocity.

• Wind direction.

• Strom surge.

• Barometric pressure.

24
 6.CASE STUDY:GULF OF MEXICO
• Pleasure Pier Galveston
Island TX and Dauphin
Island AL.
• Observed hourly water
levels and predicted
harmonic tidal data are
available.
• Data driven approach
ANN, which show
moderately good
results. 25
 NEURAL NETWORK MODELLING
• Three-layered “FEED FORWARD BACKPROPOGATION
“networks

• With 28 input neurons and 4 output neurons.

• Levemberg-Marquardt algorithm.

• transfer functions: log sigmoid between 1st and

2nd layer and linear between 2nd and 3rd layer.

26
 Table showing the water level variation

Station Maximum water Minimum water Difference(m)

level (m) level(m)
Pleasure pier TX 2.2771 -0.777 3.048

Dauphin AL 2.136 -0.405 2.541

Details of ANN models

Station ANN architecture Training data sets Testing data sets

Pleasure pier TX 28:10:4 1815 4153

Dauphin AL 28:10:4 913 1273

27
7.RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

Water Level Plot for 6 hr forecast (Pleasure Pier TX)

28
Water level plot for 18hr forecast (Dauphin Island AL)

Test results
29
•This shows high correlation coefficient of 0.95.

•Performance of model decreased as the lead time forecast was

increased to 12,18 and 24 hours upto 0.85 for 24 hr forecast.

30
REAL TIME FORECAST

Real time forecast (6 hr ahead) for January-August 2008 (Dauphin AL )

31
 8.LIMITATIONS

• Neural network works as Black box model.

• The operation of large neural networks is

impossible to analyse because of the huge
number of variables involved.
• Large quantity of data should be available.

• Neural network is weak in extrapolation .

32
 9.FUTURE SCOPE
• Hybrid neural networks

• Can be combined with fuzzy logic and other expert system

• a better system can be developed by merging of expert

systems and fuzzy logic with neural networks

• Future investigations will involve efforts for evaluating the

performance and similar models for its application in other
oceanic environments.

THEY ARE THE FUTURE………..

33
 10.CONCLUSION
• Predictions had a correlation of over 87% relative to the
observed wave heights for lead times of 12 hours and over
93% for a lead time of 6 hours in six months of validation.

• For larger lead times, the trend was correctly forecasted. But
the actual water level was slightly on a lower side.

• Once trained the implementation of ANN is extremely rapid

and hence incorporation ANN-based models as value added
software in various fields.

34
 11.REFERENCES
1. Application of Neural Network in Civil Engineering Problems by D.-
S. Jeng, D. H. Cha and M. Blumenstein

2. Application of neural network in civil engineering problems by

Umakant Joshi et al(2008)

3. Zurada, J. M. (1992). Introduction to artificial neural systems, Jaico

Publishing Company, Mumbai.

4 Zurada, J. M. (2001). “Introduction to artificial neural networks”,

Jaico publishing House, Mumbai.

5 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MATLAB.
35
REFERENCES

6 www.mathworks.com

7 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_neural_network

8 INDIAN TIDE TABLES-2001.

9 Proceedings of INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE IN

OCEAN ENGINEERING,ICOE-2009.

36
37