December 21, 2020

1
 •
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160

0
4/3/2020
4/8/2020
4/13/2020
4/18/2020
4/23/2020
4/28/2020
5/3/2020
5/8/2020

Includes COVID+ Only

5/13/2020
5/18/2020
5/23/2020
5/28/2020
6/2/2020
6/7/2020
6/12/2020
6/17/2020
6/22/2020
6/27/2020
7/2/2020
7/7/2020
7/12/2020
7/17/2020
7/22/2020
7/27/2020
8/1/2020
8/6/2020
8/11/2020
8/16/2020
8/21/2020
8/26/2020
8/31/2020
9/5/2020
9/10/2020
9/15/2020
9/20/2020
9/25/2020
9/30/2020
10/5/2020
10/10/2020
10/15/2020
10/20/2020
10/25/2020
10/30/2020
MOVING AVERAGE:

11/4/2020
11/9/2020
11/14/2020
11/19/2020
11/24/2020
11/29/2020
12/4/2020
12/9/2020
12/14/2020
12/19/2020
NEW COVID HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS

87
COVID

Average

109
New Daily

Admissions

7-Day Moving

2
 •
1000

100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900

0
4/10/2020
4/16/2020
4/22/2020
4/28/2020
5/4/2020
5/10/2020
5/16/2020

Includes COVID+ Only

5/22/2020
5/28/2020
6/3/2020
6/9/2020
6/15/2020
6/21/2020
6/27/2020
7/3/2020
7/9/2020
7/15/2020
7/21/2020
7/27/2020
8/2/2020
8/8/2020
8/14/2020
8/20/2020
8/26/2020
9/1/2020
9/7/2020
9/13/2020
9/19/2020
9/25/2020
10/1/2020
10/7/2020
10/13/2020
10/19/2020
10/25/2020
10/31/2020
11/6/2020
MOVING AVERAGE:

11/12/2020
11/18/2020
11/24/2020
11/30/2020
12/6/2020
12/12/2020
12/18/2020
TASK FORCE HOSPITALIZATIONS

Average
873
Daily Net

877
7-Day Moving
Hospitalizations

3
 ST. LOUIS REGION
CONFIRMED COVID+ ONLY
AS OF December 21, 2020

CURRENTLY DAILY ICU VENTILATORS IN

HOSPITALIZED CENSUS USE FOR COVID
(TASK FORCE HOSPITALS) (TASK FORCE HOSPITALS) (TASK FORCE HOSPITALS)

873 185 114

4
 ST. LOUIS REGION
SUSPECTED COVID+
AS OF December 21, 2020

CURRENTLY DAILY ICU VENTILATORS IN

HOSPITALIZED CENSUS USE FOR COVID
(TASK FORCE HOSPITALS) (TASK FORCE HOSPITALS) (TASK FORCE HOSPITALS)

73 11 5
5
TASK FORCE HOSPITAL DISCHARGES
AS OF December 21, 2020

COVID PATIENTS CUMULATIVE

DISCHARGED COVID PATIENTS
YESTERDAY DISCHARGED
(TASK FORCE HOSPITALS) (TASK FORCE HOSPITALS)

85 13,432
6
 10
15
20
25
30

0
5
10/5/2020
10/7/2020
10/9/2020
10/11/2020
10/13/2020
10/15/2020
10/17/2020
10/19/2020
10/21/2020
10/23/2020
10/25/2020
10/27/2020
10/29/2020
10/31/2020
11/2/2020
11/4/2020
11/6/2020
11/8/2020
11/10/2020
11/12/2020
11/14/2020
11/16/2020
11/18/2020
11/20/2020
11/22/2020
11/24/2020
11/26/2020
11/28/2020
11/30/2020
12/2/2020
12/4/2020
12/6/2020
12/8/2020
12/10/2020
12/12/2020
12/14/2020
12/16/2020
12/18/2020
12/20/2020
TASK FORCE HOSPITAL COVID DEATHS

15

18
Deaths

Average
New Daily

7-Day Moving

7
 MOVING AVERAGE:
ADMISSIONS, HOSPITALIZATIONS AND DEATHS
New Admissions Hospitalizations Deaths
160 30
900

140
25
750
120

600 20
100

80 450 15

60
300 10
40
150 5
20

0 0 0

8
 Comparison of Models from Dec 17 vs Dec 3

9
Source: St. Louis Metropolitan Task Force UPDATED 12/16
 Alternate Models: More Optimistic and Less Optimistic
Scenarios

10
Source: St. Louis Metropolitan Task Force UPDATED 12/16
 PROJECTIONS VS ACTUALS:
Inpatient Census for St. Louis MSA Hospitals

11
Source: St. Louis Metropolitan Task Force
 PROJECTIONS VS ACTUALS:
ICU Census for St. Louis MSA Hospitals

12
Source: St. Louis Metropolitan Task Force
 STL MSA EPIDEMIOLOGY CURVE

13
Source: USA Facts; Updated 12/9/2020
 COVID-19 Cases by County/100K

14
Source: NY Times UPDATED 12/16/2020
 COVID-19 Cases for MO Metro/100K

Source: NY Times UPDATED 12/16/2020 15

 Effective Reproduction Number (Re)

16
SOURCE: Based on 7-day average of new cases from the New York Times using EpiEstim with mean serial interval of 4.7 (SD: 2.9) days | UPDATED: 12/16/20
 CHANGE IN NEW CASES BY COUNTY

UPDATED: 12/16/20 | SOURCE: NY Times (county map) and County Health Departments (zip code map) 17
 CHANGE IN NEW CASES BY ZIP CODE

UPDATED: 12/16/20 | SOURCE: NY Times (county map) and County Health Departments (zip code map) 18
19