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International Parity
Conditions
International Parity Conditions
PP
P
lin
2
e
1
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6
-1 Percent difference in
expected rates of inflation
-2 (foreign relative to
home country)
-3
-4
160
United States Japan
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Interest
yield Eurodollar
10.0 % yield curve
9.0 %
8.0 %
7.0 %
Forward premium is the
6.0 % percentage difference of 3.96%
5.0 % Euro Swiss franc
yield curve
4.0 %
3.0 %
2.0 %
1.0 %
Copyright © 2004 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Days Forward 6-21
Exhibit 6.6 Interest Rate Parity (IRP)
i $ = 8.00 % per annum
(2.00 % per 90 days)
Start End
$1,000,000 x 1.02 $1,020,000
$1,019,993*
Dollar money market
•Note that the Swiss franc investment yields $1,019,993, $7 less on a $1 million investment.
Copyright © 2004 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-22
Interest Rates
and Exchange Rates
• The spot and forward exchange rates are not, however,
constantly in the state of equilibrium described by
interest rate parity.
• When the market is not in equilibrium, the potential for
“risk-less” or arbitrage profit exists.
• The arbitrager will exploit the imbalance by investing
in whichever currency offers the higher return on a
covered basis.
• This is known as covered interest arbitrage (CIA).
2
Percentage premium on
foreign currency (¥)
1
4.83
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6
-1
-2
-3
Interest
Difference in nominal Fisher
rate
interest rates effect
parity -4% (B)
(D) (less in Japan)
6-29
Interest Rates
and Exchange Rates
• Some forecasters believe that forward
exchange rates are unbiased predictors of
future spot exchange rates.
• Intuitively this means that the distribution of
possible actual spot rates in the future is
centered on the forward rate.
• Unbiased prediction simply means that the
forward rate will, on average, overestimate and
underestimate the actual future spot rate in
equal frequency and degree.
S2 F2
S1 Error F3
Error
Error
F1 S3
S4
Time
t1 t2 t3 t4
The forward rate available today (Ft,t+1), time t, for delivery at future time t+1, is used as a “predictor” of the
spot rate that will exist at that day in the future. Therefore, the forecast spot rate for time S t2 is F1; the actual spot
rate turns out to be S2. The vertical distance between the prediction and the actual spot rate is the forecast error.
When the forward rate is termed an “unbiased predictor of the future spot rate,” it means that the forward rate
over or underestimates the future spot rate with relatively equal frequency and amount. It therefore “misses the
mark” in a regular and orderly manner. The sum of the errors equals zero.
Copyright © 2004 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-31