STAT 250

Dr. Kari Lock Morgan

Simple Linear
Regression

SECTIONS 2.6, 9.1

• Simple linear regression

Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock5

 Want More Stats???
• If you have enjoyed learning how to analyze data, and
want to learn more:
• STAT 460 (Intermediate Applied Statistics)
• STAT 461 (Analysis of Variance)
• STAT 462 (Applied Regression Analysis)
• All applied, only prerequisite is STAT 200 or 250

• If you like math and want to learn more of the

mathematical theory behind what we’ve learned:
• take STAT 414 (Probability)
• and then STAT 415 (Mathematical Statistics)
• Prerequisite: MATH 230 or MATH 231
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 MODELING

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 Question of the Day
Is the size of certain regions of
your brain associated with the
size of your social network?

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 Social Networks and the Brain
Data from 40 students at City College London

How to measure brain size?

How to measure social network size?

Source: R. Kanai, B. Bahrami, R. Roylance and G. Ree (2011).

Online social network size is reflected in human brain structure, Proceedings of the
Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 10/19/11.

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 Measuring Brain Size
Structural Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI)

Voxel-based morphometry (VBM) to compute regional

grey matter volume based on T1-weighted anatomical
MRI scans

Brain regions found significant in initial study

 Amygdala (emotion and emotional memory)
 Middle temporal gyrus (social perception)
 Entorhinal cortex (memory and navigation)
 Superior temporal sulcus (perception of others)

Response: normalized z-score of grey matter density for

these brain regions
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 Brain Regions

Image from Do our Brains Determine our Facebook Friend Count? (www.nature.com)
Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock5
 Social Networks and the Brain
How to measure size of social network?
 How many were present at your 18th or 21st birthday party?
 If you were going to have a party now, how many people would you
invite?
 What is the total number of friends in your phonebook?
 Write down the names of the people to whom you would send a text
message marking a celebratory event. How many people is that?
 Write down the names of people in your phonebook you would meet for
a chat in a small group (one to three people). How many people is that?
 How many friends have you kept from school and university whom you
could have a friendly conversation with now?
 How many friends do you have on ‘Facebook’?
 How many friends do you have from outside school or university?
 Write down the names of the people of whom you feel you could ask a
favor and expect to have it granted. How many people is that?

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 Social Networks and the Brain

Response
Variable, y

r = 0.436

Explanatory
Variable, x
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 Linear Model

A linear model predicts a response

variable, y, using a linear function of
explanatory variables

Simple linear regression predicts on

response variable, y, as a linear
function of one explanatory variable, x

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 Regression Line
Goal: Find a straight line that best fits the data

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 Equation of the Line
The estimated regression line is

^  +𝛽
^𝑦 = 𝛽 ^ 𝑥
0 1
Intercept Slope
 
where x is the explanatory variable, and is the
predicted response variable.
• Slope: increase in predicted y for every unit
increase in x
• Intercept: predicted y value when x = 0
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 Regression Line
 
Which plot goes
(a) (b)
with the line
?

(c) (d)

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 Regression Line
 

𝐺𝑀 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦=−0.9276+.0 231𝐹𝐵𝑓𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑠
^
Intercept Slope

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 Regression Model

𝐺𝑀 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦=−0.9276+.00231𝐹𝐵𝑓𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑠
^ 
Which is a correct interpretation?
a) The average GM density is -0.9276
b) For every extra 0.00231 Facebook friends, the
predicted GM density increases by 1
c) Predicted GM Density increases by 0.00231 for
each extra Facebook friend
d) For every extra 0.00231 Facebook friends, the
predicted GM density increases by -0.9276
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 Explanatory and Response
• Unlike correlation, for linear regression it
does matter which is the explanatory
variable and which is the response
 

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 Prediction
• The regression equation can be used to
predict y for a given value of x
 

𝐺• 𝑀 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦=−0.9276+.00231𝐹𝐵𝑓𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑠
^
What GM density would you predict for a
person with 100 Facebook friends?

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 Prediction

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 Prediction
Should you use this equation to predict the
normalized size of these regions of your brain?

a) Yes
b) No

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 Regression Caution 1

• Do not use the regression equation or line

to predict outside the range of x values
available in your data (do not extrapolate!)

• If none of the x values are anywhere near

0, then the intercept is meaningless!

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 Linearity
• The relationship between x and y is
linear (it makes sense to draw a line
through the scatterplot)

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 Regression Caution 2

• Computers will calculate a regression line for

any two quantitative variables, even if they are
not associated or if the association is not linear

• ALWAYS PLOT YOUR DATA!

• The regression line/equation should only be

used if the association is approximately linear

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 Charlie
Dog Years
• From www.dogyears.com:
“The old rule-of-thumb that one dog year
equals seven years of a human life is not
accurate. The ratio is higher with youth
and decreases a bit as the dog ages.”

ACTUAL
• 1 dog year = 7 human years
• Linear: human age = 7×dog age
LINEAR

A linear model can still be useful, even

if it doesn’t perfectly fit the data.
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 “All models are wrong,
but some are useful”
-George Box

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 Simple Linear Model
• The population/true simple linear model is
 

Intercept Slope Random error

• 0 and 1, are unknown parameters

• Can use familiar inference methods!
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 Inference for the Slope
Test for whether the slope is significantly
different from 0 (whether there is any linear
relationship between x and y):
H0 : b 1 =0
Ha : b1 ¹ 0
Confidence interval for the true slope

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 Regression in Minitab

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 Association

Is the number of Facebook friends significantly

associated with Grey Matter Density?
a) Yes
b) No

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 Social Networks and the Brain

Should you go out and add more Facebook

friends to increase the size of your brain?

a) Yes
b) No

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 Regression Caution 4

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 Confidence Interval

statistic  t *  SE

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 Multiple Testing?

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 False Positive (Type I Error) Protection

To further protect against Type I errors, they

performed two independent analyses on two
separate samples (n = 125, then n = 40)

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 Real-World Network Size
What about real-world network size?

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 R2

R2 is the proportion of the variability in

the response variable, Y, that is
explained by the explanatory variable, X

For simple linear regression, R2 = r2 (R2 is just

the sample correlation squared)

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 R2
R 2  0.67 R 2  0.09

How much does the variability in Y decrease if you know X?

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 Regression in Minitab

0.4362 = 0.19

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 To Do
HW 2.6, HW 9.1 (due Wednesday, 4/19)

Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock5