Problem Solving

&
Decision Making
2007
 CONTENTS

1) Background to Problem Solving

2) Setting the Problem Statement
3) Analyze the Problem in Detail
4) Identify Likely Causes
5) Define Actual Causes
 (1)

Background to
Problem Solving
 What is PAID?
– A logical problem solving process can be
done through some steps called "PAID"
• Problem Statement
• Analyze the problem in detail
• Identify likely causes
• Define actual cause(s)
• Problems exist when someone or
something is not performing as
expected.
• Action needs to be taken to solve the
problem thus action should follow from
a clear understanding of the problem.
• To understand problem solving it is
necessary to distinguish between
symptoms of a problem and its
causes.
• Identification of the cause of
a problem is the key to
problem solving.
• Once you know the real
cause of the problem, you
can decide how to deal with it
 Causes and Symptoms of a
Problem
• It is necessary to distinguish between the
symptoms of a problem and its causes.
• What is the best indication that a problem can be
solved?
– The symptoms of the problem have been treated?
• OR
– The cause of the problem has been isolated?
• Sure symptoms treatment not a solution but once
you have found the real cause of a problem you
can decide how to deal with it.
 Diagram of a Problem
• To help understand what we are looking for
when finding the cause of a problem, it is
worthwhile looking at a problem
diagrammatically.
• Look at the diagram
Performance
on the right. It shows Actual Performance

performance over Expected Performance

time. In this case it is

constant, but is there
a problem? T I M E
• The area with the positive variance is called
“Opportunity"
• An opportunity is the exact opposite of a problem.
• They can be analyzed in the same way as
problems.
• You want to find out what caused an opportunity to
happen that you can exploit it to the full or make it
happen elsewhere.
Actual Performance
Positive Variance Performance
Opportunity
Expected Performance
Negative Variance
Problem Actual Performance

T I M E
• Problems don't occur without a reason.
• In any situation with a problem, there must be
an historical point.
– When actual performance started to deviate.
• Something happened at the time x which
caused the problem to occur.

Positive Variance
Performance

Opportunity
Expected X
Performance

Negative Variance Actual

ProblemX Performance

T I M E
 Problem Solving Action Flow
• Set a Problem Statement
– Describe the problem
– Develop a one sentence problem statement
• Analyze the problem in detail
– Analyze what is wrong
– Analyze what is right
• Identify likely causes
– What's different?
– What has changed?
– What are the most likely explanations?
• Define actual cause/s
– What is the most likely explanation?
– Can I prove it?
 Avoiding Pitfalls

(A) Giving up too early

(B) Jumping straight to conclusions about the cause
(C) Not getting the right people involved
(D) Not collecting all the relevant data

• The worst one is “B " because. It is always very

tempting to think you know the cause of a
problem straight away, jump to conclusions and
take action to solve it.
 (2)

Setting the
Problem Statement
Describe the problem
Develop a one sentence problem statement
 Describe the Problem
• The purpose of describing the problem is to
create an impressionistic view of it - something
on which to lay a solid foundation for further
work.
• Choose what you would do first from this list:
A. Write down a list of possible causes
B. Undertake a detailed analysis to produce a
structured picture of the problem
C. Write down everything you know about the problem
D. Interview the people you think are to blame for the
problem
 Describe the Problem
• The purpose of describing the problem is to
create an impressionistic view of it - something
on which to lay a solid foundation for further
work.
• Choose what you would do first from this list:
A. Write down a list of possible causes
B. Undertake a detailed analysis to produce a
structured picture of the problem
C. Write down everything you know about the problem
D. Interview the people you think are to blame for the
problem
 Brainstorming
• Creative thinking techniques have a potentially
powerful role in the PAID process.
• They are a very good starting point when you
have a blank piece of paper.
• They can help you get insights into the nature of
the problem that purely analytical techniques
couldn't.
• many people broadly know what it means, but
don't do it properly.
• Even though it's a creative thinking technique it
has several rules which must be followed to
make it work.
 Brainstorming
• See if you can identify what we can
use brainstorming for as part of
sorting out a statement of the
problem.
– To generate as many ideas as possible
about:
A. The overall nature of the problem
B. The actions to be taken to solve the problem
C. Possible causes of the problem
D. Specific aspects of the problem
 Brainstorming
• See if you can identify what we can
use brainstorming for as part of
sorting out a statement of the
problem.
– To generate as many ideas as possible
about:
A. The overall nature of the problem
B. The actions to be taken to solve the problem
C. Possible causes of the problem
D. Specific aspects of the problem
 Brainstorming
• You are the leader of a brainstorm
session looking at a customer service
problem.
– A member of the group gives an idea you
know is completely irrelevant. What should
you do? 
A. Write down the idea as stated
B. Modify the idea to make it relevant and write that
down
C. Ignore the idea completely
D. Ask members of the group whether they think the
idea is relevant
 Brainstorming
• You are the leader of a brainstorm
session looking at a customer service
problem.
– A member of the group gives an idea you
know is completely irrelevant. What should
you do? 
A. Write down the idea as stated
B. Modify the idea to make it relevant and write that
down
C. Ignore the idea completely
D. Ask members of the group whether they think the
idea is relevant
 Bug Listing
• When listing the things they liked, the
group got a very different set of ideas.
• It is quick and easy to use and very useful
for getting a feel about problems. It can
also be used later when you are looking
for the areas you need to specify in detail.
 Reversals
• 'Reversals' is a simple technique which is useful
at any stage in the PAID process.
• It is good to use at the start of the process
because it's fun.
• You simply take an issue that you planned to
brainstorm and reverse it!
• You then brainstorm the reversed issue. It's best
explained by example. Here are a few issues
and possible reversals:
– How to attract more customers into my store
• How to reduce the number of customers visiting my store
– How to improve the quality of customer service
• How to reduce the quality of customer service
 Interesting, right?
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