Professional Documents
Culture Documents
of Money
&
Chapter 2: How to
Calculate Present Values
Topics Covered
• Time Value of Money
• Future Values (FV) and Present Values (PV)
– Compute the future value of an investment made today
– Compute the present value of cash to be received at some
future date
– Compute the number of periods that equates a present value
and a future value given an interest rate
– Compute required interest rate to reach a certain amount in a
certain period
• Looking for Shortcuts—Perpetuities and Annuities
• More Shortcuts—Growing Perpetuities and Annuities
• How Interest Is Paid and Quoted
Time Value of Money
10% risk-free interest rate
Now 1 Year 2 Years
100TL 108TL 120TL
5-5
Present Value and Future Value
• Future Value
– Amount to which an investment will grow after
earning interest
• Present Value
– Value today of a future cash flow
Basic Definitions
• Present Value – earlier money on a
time line
0 1 2 3 4
Time Periods
Time Value of Money-Time Line
0 1 2 3 4
Cash Flows
Years 0 1 2 3 4
If I deposit $100 in a bank account that pays 10%, how much will I
have after 1 year?
$100 FV=?
r =10%
0 1
15
FV (Investing for More than One
Period)
After 2 years? $110+(.10)(110) = $121
or
$100(1+.10)(1.10) = $100(1.10)2 = $121
FV $ 100 (1 r ) t
Future Value and Compounding
• Future Value: The amount an investment is
worth after one or more periods
Example: FV
What is the future value of $100 if interest is
compounded annually at a rate of 7% for two
years?
FV =$100 ´ (1.07) ´ (1.07) =$114.49
2
FV =$100 ´ (1+.07) =$114.49
Future Value and Compounding
0 1 2 3 4
0 1 2 3 4
FV4(CF3)=CF3 *(1+r)1
FV4(CF2)=CF2 *(1+r)2
FV4(CF1)=CF1 *(1+r)3
FV4(CF0)=CF0 *(1+r)4
Using Equation,
– FV = 8000(1.07)10 = 15,737.21 DVDs
CHECK YOURSELF
FV = $10,000(1.12)20
= $10,000(9.6463)
= $96,462.93
Step 3: Solve (cont.)
Solve Using a Solve Using an Excel
Financial Calculator Spreadsheet
N = 20
I/Y = 12% =FV(rate,nper,pmt, pv)
PV = -10,000 =FV(0.12,20, 0,-10000)
PMT = 0
= $96,462.93
FV = $96,462.93
Step 4: Analyze
If you invest $10,000 at 12%, it will grow to
$96,462.93 in 20 years.
Example Savings
How much money will we have four years from
today if we save $100 a year, beginning today,
for the next three years, assuming we earn 5%
per annum?
Example Savings
0 1 2 3 4
0 1 2 3 4
0 1 2 3 4
The future value four years from today of saving $100 starting today
for the next three years at 5% per annum is $452.56.
Example Savings
Show that we are going to have $452.56 at the
end of four years if we save $100 starting today
for the next three years and our money earns
5% per annum.
Year Interest Pre- Deposit Post-
Deposit Deposit
Balance Balance
0 $100 $100
Example Savings
Show that we are going to have $452.56 at the
end of four years if we save $100 starting today
for the next three years and our money earns
5% per annum.
Year Interest Pre- Deposit Post-
Deposit Deposit
Balance Balance
0 $100 $100
1 5 105 100 205.00
2 10.25 215.25 100 315.25
3 15.76 331.01 100 431.01
4 21.55 452.56 0 452.56
Compound Interest with Shorter
Compounding Periods
i=10%
0 1 2… 120
Months
FV = PV (1+i/12)m*12 N = 120
= $50,000 (1+0.10/12)10*12 I/Y = .833%
= $50,000 (2.7070) PV = -50,000
= $135,352.07 PMT = 0
FV = $135,352
Step 4: Analyze
• More frequent compounding leads to a higher
FV as you are earning interest more often on
interest you have previously earned.
Now let’s reverse the problem. How much will I pay today to receive $110 one
year from today if I require a 10% return on my money?
P0 = PV=? 110
r =10%
0 1
$110
P0 PV $100
(110
. )
49
PV (Cont’d)
What about PV of $121 in 2 years?
P0 = PV=? 121
$121
PV 2 $100
r =10%
(110
. )
0 2
$1,000 in t years?
P0 = PV=? 1000
$1,000
PV t
r =10%
(1.10)
0 N
50
Present Value and Discounting
Present value = PV
PV = FV / (1+r)t
PV = discount factor C1
DF 1
(1 r ) t
PV =DF2 ´ C2
PV = (1+.07)
1
2 ´ $114.49 =$100
The Mechanics of Discounting Future Cash
Flows
• PV = FVn × PVIF
Present Value
PV(t): Discounted value of cash flows as of time t.
0 1 2 3 4
Present
Value =?
Step 2: Decide on a Solution Strategy
PV = -$29,530
Step 4: Analyze
Once you’ve found the present value, it can be
compared to other present values. Present value
computation makes cash flows that occur in
different time periods comparable so that we
can make good decisions.
Present Value: Example
1
PV FV $100, 000 1
$50,835
(1 r ) t (1.07)10
t = 4 r = %6 PV = ?
= 24,158.86TL
Example-Savings
How much do you have to deposit today to
withdraw $100 at the end of each of the next
four years if you can earn 5% annually?
Example Savings
0 1 2 3 4
100 /(1+0,05)1
100 /(1+0,05)2
100 /(1+0,05)3
100 /(1+0,05)4
0 1 2 3 4
0• $354,60
1
2
3
4 $0.00
Example Savings
Show that when you deposit $354,60 now, you
are going to be able to withdraw $100 for the
Year Interest Pre-Withdrawal Withdrawal Post-Withdrawal
following four years.
Balance Balance
0• $354,60
1 $17.73 $372.32 $100.00 $272.32
69
Figure 2.2 Present Values with Compounding
Two Additional Types of Discounting
Problems
Years 0 1 2… N =?
FV = 200,000
= 21.4 years
N = 21.4 years
Step 4: Analyze
It will take 21.4 years for $10,000 to grow to
$200,000 at an annual interest rate of 15%.
Number of Years Example
• With
15% interest after how many years will it
take for 80,000 TL be 160,000 TL?
Remember:
Change of base formula
/
Solving for the Rate of Interest
(2): What rate of interest will allow your
investment to grow to a desired future value?
Years 0 1 2… 30
We know FV, PV
and N and are Solving
for “interest rate”
Step 2: Decide on a Solution Strategy
• -18.58%
Valuing an Investment Opportunity
You own a small company and want to construct a suburban office
building. The cost of buying the land and constructing the building is
$700.000. You can sell the office building next year for $800.000.
(Assume that $800.000 next year is a sure thing)
C1
PV (1 r ) 800 , 000
(1 .07 ) 747 ,664
Step 4: Go ahead if PV of payoff exceeds investment
C1
NPV = C0 +
1+ r
Figure 2.4 NPV Calculation
Risk and Present Value
PV1
of
C $800,000
at
12%
800,000
PV 714
,286
1
.12
PV of C1 $800,000 at 7%
800,000
PV 747 ,664
1 .07
Risk and Net Present Value
800,000
NPV = –700,000 + =$27,273
1.10
Rate of Return Rule
• Accept investments that offer rates of return
in excess of their opportunity cost of capital
Example
In the project listed below, the foregone
investment opportunity is 12%. Should we do
the project?
profit 800,000 700,000
Return .143 or 14.3%
investment 700,000
Calculating Net Present Value When There
Are Multiple Cash Flows
T
NPV =C0 + å Ct
(1+r )t
t=1
• What is the NPV of this building project if you
can rent out the building for two years at
$30.000 a year and predict that you can sell
the building for $840.000 at the end of second
year?
(Assume that equally risky investments offer a
return of 12%)
Figure 2.5 NPV Calculation
PERPETUITIES AND ANNUITIES
How to Value Perpetuities
• Sometimes there are shortcuts that make it
very easy to calculate the present value of an
asset that pays off in different periods.
• These tools allow us to cut through the
calculations quickly.
• A perpetuity is an infinite sequence of equal
cash flows
– i.e. $1 per year forever
Shortcuts
Perpetuity: Financial concept in which a cash
flow is theoretically received forever.
cash flow
Return
present value
C
r
PV
Shortcuts Continued
Perpetuity: Financial concept in which a cash
flow is theoretically received forever.
cash flow
PV of cash flow =
discount rate
C
PV =
r
Examples of Perpetuities
99
Perpetuity Formula Derivation
1 1 1
1) x ...
1 r 1 r 2
1 r 3
1 1
2) x(1 r ) 1 ...
1 r 1 r 2
PV $1 bil
0.10 $10 billion
Present Values Continued
Example continued
What if the investment does not start making
money for 3 years?
PV $1 bil
0 . 10 1
1.10 3
$ 7 .51 billion
How to Value Annuities
Annuity: An asset that pays a fixed sum each
year for a specified number of years
1 1
PV of annuity C t
r r 1 r
Perpetuities & Annuities
PV Annuity Factor (PVAF): The present value of
$1 a year for each of t years
é
PVAF =ër -
1 1 ù
r (1+r ) t û
Figure 2.7 Annuity
Example: Costing an Installment Plan
r=10% 1 2 3 4
0
. ) 3 100(110
100(110 . ) 2 100(110
. ) 1 100(110
. )0
100 (110
. ) 3 (110
. ) 2 (110 . )0
. )1 (110
100 4.6410
$464.10 111
FV of an Annuity- Formula Derivation
Future value of $1 annuity for t years:
112
Future Value of an Annuity
Future Value of an Annuity: The future value of an
asset that pays a fixed sum each year for a specified
number of years.
1 r 1 t
FV of annuity C
r
Future Value of an Annuity -Example
Example
What is the future value of $20,000 paid at the end of each of
the following 5 years, assuming your investment returns 8% per
year?
1 .08 5 1
FV 20,000
.08
$117 ,332
Summary: Annuity Formula Notes
The PVr,t formula is constructed to discount all the annuity payments back to 1
period before the 1st cash flow!
PV CF CF CF CF
0 1 2 3 N
The FVr,t formula is constructed to compound all the annuity payments forward
to the day of the last cash flow!
FV
CF CF CF CF
0 1 2 3 N
Remember these rules!
115
Summary: Ordinary Annuity
Payments or receipts occur at the end of each
period.
0 1 2 3
0 1 2 3
118
1) Discount each cash flow individually:
1 1 1 1
PV(AnnuityDue) 1001 2 3 4
(110
. ) (110
. ) (110
. ) (110
. )
2) Now factor out (1+r)
1 1 1 1 1
100(110
. ) 2 3 4 5
(110
. ) (110
. ) (110
. ) (110
. ) (110
. )
=(1.10)(PV (of regular annuity) 10%,5) = $416.99
In general
PV(Annuity Due)=
(1+r)(PV(of regular annuity)r,t)
119
Delayed Annuity: Example
How much would you pay to receive $100 every year for 4 years but the
payments don’t start for 3 years? (assume you require a 10% return on your
investment?
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1
PV0 PV2 2
316.99(0.8264)
(1.10)
261.98
Alternatively, we could “lump” the cash flows at t=6 and move them from t=6 to
t=0!
(1 r ) t 1 1
FV 6 100 PV0 FV6
r (1.10) 6
(1.10 ) 4 1 464.10(0.5645)
100
. 10 261.98
100 ( 4.6410 ) 464 .10 121
Growing Perpetuities
Present value of growing perpetuity
C1
PV0
rg
g = the annual growth rate of the cash flow
Growth Perpetuity Example
Example
What is the present value of $1 billion paid at the end of
every year in perpetuity, assuming a rate of return of
10% and a constant growth rate of 4%?
1
PV 0
. 10 . 04
$ 16 . 667 billion
INTEREST RATE
What’s in an interest rate?
• Forgone consumption
– All else equal, I would prefer to have it now rather
than wait for a year.
• Inflation
– Things will cost more in the future
• Risk
– How bad is the downside?
125
Simple vs. Compound interest
128
The Power of Compounding
Interest earned at a rate of 7% for the first forty years on the $100 invested
using simple and compound interest.
$1,600
$1,400
$1,200
Simple Interest
$1,000
Compound Interest
Future Value
$800
$600
$400
$200
$0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
Year
129
How Interest is Paid and Quoted
Annual Percentage Rate: Interest rate that
is annualized using simple interest
EAR (1 MR ) 112
0 1 2 3 12 months
1% 1-year
rStated .12
rPeriodic .01
N 12
# of compounding periods 133
EAR vs APR
m
APR
EAR ( EffectiveAnnualRate) 1 1
m
134
10% Stated rate:
Compounding N Formula Effective
Annual
.1
rate
01
Annual 1 (1 ) 1 10%
1
.102
Semiannual 2 (1 ) 1 10.25%
2
.1012
Monthly 12 (1 ) 1 10.47%
1 2
.
1 03
Daily 365 (
1 ) 65
1 10.52%
365
Continuous e .10 1 10.52% 135
Real vs. Nominal Interest Rate
136
Inflation
Inflation - Rate at which prices as a whole are
increasing.
137
Nominal vs. Real Returns
• nominal return:
– raw % return, not adjusted for inflation
• real return: nominal return less inflation
• Approximately ;
Real interest rate
• e.g. Suppose that you invest your funds at an interest rate of 8%.
What will be your real interets if the inflation is zero? What if it is 5%?
Answer: 1+real interest rate= (1+8%) / (1+0) => real interest rate : 8 %
1+real interest rate= (1+8%) / (1+5%) =>
real interest rate : 2.857%
139
Formulas: Nominal vs. Real
•
Inflation: Example
If the nominal interest rate on your interest-bearing savings
account is 2.0% and the inflation rate is 3.0%, what is the
real interest rate?
1+.02
1 real interest rate = 1+.03
142