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Review of Problem Questions
Modules 1 to 3
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Problem One
(a) one year final wealth
50 000 x 1.1163 = $55 815
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Problem 2
To realise a gross profit of $500 on 200
shares sold short at $7.50, the investor must
cover at (ignoring transaction costs):
200 ($7.50) = $1500
$1500 – X = $ 500 profit
X is $1000, which must be divided by 200
shares.
Answer: $5 per share
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Problem 3
At 40% margin:
the investor must put up $200, resulting in a
gross profit percentage relative to equity of:
$100 / $200
= 50.00%
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Problem 4
Joey has $30 000 to invest. Being quite aggressive
in terms of risk, he borrows a further $30 000 &
invests the full amount in LMN shares. Assume
borrowings are at 8.85 per cent per annum & that
the total return on shares (capital growth &
dividends) is 10.7 per cent per annum over a five
year period.
Compare the net portfolio value of
using a margin loan versus the net portfolio value
of not utilising a margin© Massey
loan.
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Problem 5
If security markets are totally efficient, the
best common stock strategy to take is:
a. An asset allocation approach
b. The modern portfolio theory approach
c. Value investing.
d. An active strategy.
e. A passive strategy.
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Problem 6
Which of the following regarding behavioural finance and investors is
NOT correct?
a. Overconfidence can lead to investors trading securities more
frequently.
b. Many investors avoid selling their losing stocks due to their
dislike of taking losses.
c. For investors, narrow framing means the tendency to analyse
a situation in isolation.
d. Investors make mistakes about the probability of events
happening to shares.
e. Investors have a tendency to decrease the amount invested in
a share after the share’s price has fallen.
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Problem 7
Calculate the TR & the RR for the following:
Ignore transaction costs
An ordinary share bought for $70 per share,
held for one year during which $5 per share
dividends are collected, & sold for $63
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Problem 7
TRps = [Dt + (PE – PB)] / PB
where Dt = the dividend, PE = ending price or sale price
PB = beginning price or purchase price
TR = (5 + –7) / 70 = –2.86%
(a) a TR of –2.86%
is equal to a RR of 0.9714 = (1.0+ [– 0.0286])
(b) a TR of 18.18%
is equal to a RR of 1.1818
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Problem 8
You are given the following three years for the ASX200
index:
Year TR RR
2002 –8.09% 0.9191
2003 13.92% 1.1362
2004 26.33% 1.2633
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Problem 8
CWI02-04 = 1.00 (0.9191)(1.1362)(1.2633)
= 1.3192
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Problem 9 - Equities
Indicate the likely direction of change, and
why, in a share’s P/E ratio if:
(a) the dividend payout increases
(b) the required rate of return rises
(c) the expected growth rate of dividends
rises
(d) the risk-free rate of return decreases
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Problem 9
– (a) decline1
– (b) decline
– (c) increase
– (d) increase2
– 1
if D/E increases, P/E will increase. But this is only if
'all other things are equal'. If dividends increase then
the firm will have less funds to invest (this is E - D) so
expected g will probably decrease.
– 2the riskless rate of return is a component of the
required rate of return, which has an inverse
relationship with the P/E.
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Problem 10 - Equities
• ABC is currently paying a dividend of
$1.60 per year,
• This dividend is expected to grow at a
constant rate of 8 per cent a year.
• Investors require a 16 per cent rate if
return on ABC.
• What is its estimated price?
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
• Q10) Inputs
• D0 = $1.60
• g = 8.00%
• k = 16.00%
D1
D1 D0 1 g P0
kg
$1.601.08
$1.728
$1.728
0.16 0.08
$21.60
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Problem 11 - Equities
• The appropriate P/E ratio for ABC shares
are 23.
• Forecasted one-year earnings per share
(EPS) are $1.50,
• The required rate of return is 9.20%
• ABC has an estimated constant growth in
dividends at a rate of 6.30 per cent.
• Calculate the current dividend per share.
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
• Q11) Inputs:
• g = 6.30%
• k = 9.20%
• P/E ratio = 23
• E1 = $1.50
• First, estimate the share’s current value.
P0 E1 P E1
$1.50 23
$34.50
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Problem 12 - Equities
• DEF is currently paying a dividend of
$1.80.
• The dividend is expected to grow at a rate
of 6 per cent in the future.
• DEF 10 percent less risky than the market
as a whole.
• The market risk premium is 7 percent and
the risk-free rate is 5 per cent.
• What is the estimated price of this stock?
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
• Q4) Inputs
• D0 = $1.80
• g = 6.00%
• RM = 12.00%
• RF = 5.00%
• Beta = 0.90
• Use CAPM: k RF i E RM RF
5.00% 0.9012.00% 5.00%
5.00% 0.90 7.00%
5.00% 6.30%
11 .30%
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
• Calculate D1.
D1 D0 1 g
$1.801.06
$1.908
• Calculate the estimated share price:
D1
P0
kg
$1.908
0.113 0.06
$36.00
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Problem 13 - Equities
• Describe three active strategies
involving ordinary shares.
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Problem 13
• Three active strategies for ordinary shares include:
• share selection — searching for undervalued or
overvalued shares
• sector rotation — shifting the sector weights in a
portfolio to take advantage of those sectors expected to
do relatively better and avoid those expected to do
relatively worse
• market timing — the attempt to earn excess returns
by varying the percentage of portfolio assets in equity
securities.
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Problem 14 - Equities
• If an investor can determine when
the bottoming out of the economy
will occur, when should shares be
purchased: before, during or after
the economy hits its bottom?
• Would share prices be expected to
continue to rise as the economy
recovers?
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Problem 14
• Shares should be purchased before a
bottoming of the economy occurs because
prices almost always rise before the
trough.
• As the economy recovers, be prepared for
a leveling off, or even a decline in share
prices.
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Problem 15 - Equities
Assume the following information for the market:
Average dividend per share $0.63
Average earnings per share $0.89
Average required rate of return10.5%
Average growth rate 5.2%
(a) Compute the P/E ratio for the market, together with the
average price of the market
(b) what would happen to both the P/E ratio of the
market and the average price of the market if
the spread between k and g fell by 20%
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
$0.63 1.052
• Q15) (a) P
0.105 0.052
$12.50
$12.50
P/E $0.63 1.052
$0.89 P
14.04 0.0424
• (b) New spread $15.63
= 0.0530.8 = 0.0424
$15.63
P/E
$0.89
17.56
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Problem 16 - Equities
• Explain how growth industries,
defensive industries and cyclical
industries are affected by the
business cycle.
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Problem 17 - Equities
• Holding everything else constant, what
effect would the following have on a
company’s P/E ratio?
– (a) An increase in the expected growth rate of
earnings
– (b) A decrease in the expected dividend payout
– (c) An increase in the risk-free rate of return
– (d) An increase in the risk premium
– (e) A decrease in the required rate of return
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
• Q17)
• (a) Earnings and dividends are directly related; therefore,
an increase in the expected growth rate of earnings
would equate with an increase in g, which is
directly related to the P/E.
• (b) A decline in the expected payout will lead to a
decline in the P/E. Remember that this direct
relationship only holds if all other variables remain
constant.
• (c) An increase in the risk-free rate of return will result
in a rise in k and, therefore, a decline in the P/E.
• (d) An increase in the risk premium will result in a rise
in k and, therefore, a decline in the P/E.
• (e) A decrease in the required rate of return will
increase the P/E.
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Problem 18 - Equities
• (a) Why would an investor want to
know the beta coefficient for a
particular company?
• (b) How would this information be
used?
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Problem 19 - Equities
• RB company has
– a net profit of $10,000,
– interest of $2000
– tax of $2000.
– 10 days’ sales in receivables.
– Average total assets are $100,000
– total receivables are $4000
– debt/equity ratio is 0.40.
• (a) What is RB’s profit margin?
• (b) What is Roadblock’s total asset turnover?
• (c) What is Roadblock’s ROE?
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
365
Sales $4000
• Q19) (a) 10
$146000
EBIT
Profit margin
Sales
$10000 $2000 $2000
$146000
0.0960
• (b)
Sales
Total asset turn over
Average total assets
$146000
$100000
1.46
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
D
ROE ROA 1
E
0.10 1 0.4
0.10 1.40
0.14 © Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Problem 20 - Equities
• What is a relative strength analysis?
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
• Q20)
• Relative strength is generally used to forecast
individual shares or industries.
• It is calculated as the ratio of a share’s price to a
market index, an industry index, or the average
price of the share itself over some previous
period.
• These ratios are plotted to form a graph of
relative price across time.
• A rising ratio indicates relative strength, and it is
often assumed that the trend will continue.
© Massey
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
45
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
47
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Immunisation
• Used to protect a bond portfolio against interest
rate risk.
– The portfolio is designed so that price risk and
reinvestment risk offset each other.
• Price risk results from the relationship between
bond prices and required rates of return.
• Reinvestment risk results from uncertainty
about the reinvestment rate for future coupon
income.
50
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Immunisation
• Risk components move in opposite directions.
– Favourable results on one side can be used to offset
unfavourable results on the other.
– When interest rates rise (fall), reinvestment income
rises (fall) while bond prices fall (rise).
• The portfolio is immunised if the duration of the
portfolio is equal to the preselected investment
horizon for the portfolio.
• Usually require frequent rebalancing.
– Duration changes as time/interest rates change
51
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
D
% Δ in bond price Δ r
(1 ytm )
54
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
•
• =+
• =914.2046
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
• Yield to maturity (YTM) is defined as the indicated (promised) compounded rate of return an
investor will receive from a bond purchased at the current market price and held to maturity.
•
•
• One of the key determinants of bond yields is the default risk of the issuer. The greater the expected
chance of default, the higher will be yield demanded by investors in order to compensate them for the
extra risk associated with holding such bonds.
• Other factors include the level of economic activity which directly affects inflation and also the
probability of default (i.e. default is more likely when the economy is in a slump). The level of interest
rates in the economy as a whole is also a factor as these determine the ‘base’ prices for borrowing and
lending in the economy and form the foundation from which other debt instruments are priced. The
level of interest rates in overseas economies (especially the US) also influence yields due to the
influence they have over domestic interest rates.
• +++++
•
• where risk-free rate = real interest rate + expected inflation premium and the real interest rate
depends on available opportunities (+) to invest in the economy and how impatient to consume
(rather than to save) people are (+).
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
a. I and IV only
b. I and II only
c. I, II and IV only
d. I, III and IV only
e. I, II, III and IV
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
65
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
66
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
67
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
a. I and IV only
b. I and II only
c. I, II and IV only
d. I, III and IV only
e. I, II, III and IV
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
78
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
• a. lost $250
• b. made $750
• c. made $500
• d. lost $750
• e. broke even
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
• a. -$1.0
• b. $1.0
• c. $1.5
• d. $0.0
• e. $25
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
• a. III only
• b. II and III
• c. I and IV
• d. I and III
• e. II and IV
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Mod 6 Workshop
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
a. nondiversifiable
b. market
c. systematic
d. firm specific
e. total
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
a. A; B
b. B; E
c. C; D
d. D; C
e. C; E
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Mod 7 workshop
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
•
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Return Measures
Dollar-weighted returns:
– Equivalent to internal rate of return.
– Equates initial value of portfolio (investment)
with cash inflows or outflows and ending
value of portfolio.
– Measure return to the portfolio owner
– Cash flow effects make comparisons to
benchmarks inappropriate.
122
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments
Return Measures
Time-weighted returns:
– Unaffected by cash flows and permits
comparisons with benchmarks.
– Calculate a return relative for each time period
defined by a cash inflow or outflow.
– Use each return relative to calculate a
compound rate of return for the entire period.
𝐶𝐹 𝑡 + 𝑃𝐸
𝑅𝑒𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛 𝑟𝑒𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒=
𝑃𝐵 123
School of Economics and Finance Introduction to
College of Business Investments