Simulation and Modelling

Chapter One

Systems Concepts

By: Hayelom M. (PhD Candidate at UESTC)

 Introduction
• This course is about techniques for using computers to
imitate, or simulate, the operations of various kinds of real-
world facilities or processes.
• The facility or process of interest is usually called a system,
and in order to study it scientifically we often have to make a
set of assumptions about how it works.
• These assumptions, which usually take the form of
mathematical or logical relationships, constitute a
model that is used to try to gain some understanding of how
the corresponding system behaves.
• In a simulation we use a computer to evaluate a model
numerically, and data are gathered in order to estimate the
desired true characteristics of the model.
Types of Simulation

• Monte Carlo Simulation: estimating one or more statistical

properties of a system via an independent sequence of state (i.e.
variable) assignments
• Markov-Chain Monte Carlo Simulation: estimating one or
more statistical properties of a system via a dependent sequence
of state (i.e. variable) assignments that obey a Markov chain
• Discrete-Event System Simulation: driven by an event queue
for which events are removed and processed in chronological
order (based on when they occur in the system). A static event
is one that is added to the queue before simulation begins, while
a dynamic event arises during simulation, and is often triggered
by some other event.
• Continuous System Simulation system: is updated every δt
time units, where δt is sufficiently small so that changes appear
continuous.
Application areas for simulation
• Designing and analyzing manufacturing systems
• Evaluating military weapons systems or their logistics requirements
• Determining hardware requirements or protocols for
communications networks
• Determining hardware and software requirements for a computer
system
• Designing and operating transportation systems such as airports,
freeways, ports,
and subways
• Evaluating designs for service organizations such as call centers,
fast-food restaurants, hospitals, and post offices
• Reengineering of business processes
• Analyzing supply chains
• Determining ordering policies for an inventory system
• Analyzing mining operations
Use Simulation When
• Inexpensive way to learn how a system’s operation and
performance responds to changes
• Knowledge gained can suggest improvement for the
system.
• System changes may be impossible or expensive to observe
in practice.
• Can be used to reinforce and verify analytic solutions.
• Allows one to experiment with new designs or policies
prior to implementation.
• Can be used for off-line employee training.
• Some systems are too complex to understand by any other
means.
Avoid Simulation
• When a problem can be solved analytically or by using
common sense
• When a problem can be solved more cheaply using
direct experimentation
• When the costs of simulation exceed the savings
resources such as time, money, or data are not available
• Lack of ability to verify or validate the model
• System behavior is too complex or hard to define
 Advantage of Simulation
• Simulation can also be used to study systems in the design stage.
• New policies, operating procedures, decision rules, information
flow, etc can be explored without disrupting the ongoing
operations of the real system.
• New hardware designs, physical layouts, transportation systems
can be tested without committing resources for their acquisition.
• Hypotheses about how or why certain phenomena occur can be
tested for feasibility.
• A simulation study can help in understanding how the system
operates rather than how individuals think the system operates.
• what-if” questions can be answered. Useful in the design of new
systems.
 Disadvantages of Simulation
• Model building requires special training.
• Simulation results may be difficult to interpret.

• Simulation modeling and analysis can be time

consuming and expensive.
• Simulation is used in some cases when an
analytical solution is possible or even preferable.
System and State
• A system is defined to be a collection of entities, e.g.,
people or machines, that act
and interact together toward the accomplishment of some
logical end. 1970.
• The collection of entities that comprise a system for one
study might be only a subset of the overall system for
another. Eg. Bank
• We define the state of a system to be that collection of
variables necessary to describe a system at a particular time,
relative to the objectives of a study.
Eg. number of busy tellers, the number of customers, and
arrival time of each customer.
Cont..
• Systems are embedded within a larger environment,
called the system environment.
• There is typically an exchange of information and
resources between the system and its environment.
• Note however that the distinction between a system and
its environment represents more of a logical division
for the sake of model development.
• In most cases, a system represents an integrated part of
its environment; not a separate entity.
 Types of System
i. Endogenous System  The term endogenous is used to
describe activities and events occurring within a system.
Ex: Drawing cash in a bank
ii. Exogenous System The term exogenous is used to
describe activities and events in the environment that affect
the system. Ex: Arrival of customers.
iii. Closed System A system for which there is no exogenous
activity and event is said to be a closed. Ex: Water in an insulated
flask.
iv. Open system  A system for which there is exogenous
activity and event is said to be an open. Ex: Bank system
v. Discrete Systems State variables change suddenly at
separated points in time Ex. Bank model: State changes
occur only when a customer arrives or departs.
vi. Continuous Systems  State variables change
continuously as a function of time Ex. Airplane flight
Cont..

• Ways to study system

 Model of a system
A model is defined as a representation of a system
for the purpose of studying the system.
The objective of developing a model is to predict
how a system will perform before it is built.
The task of deriving a model of a system may be
divided broadly into two sub task.
i. Establish the model structure: - it determine the
system boundary and identifies the entities,
attributes, and activities of the system.
ii. Supplying data: - The data provide the values the
attributes can have and define the relation ships
involved in the activities
 Type of Models
i. Mathematical or Physical Model:- A mathematical model uses
symbolic notation and mathematical equations to represent a system
ii. Static Model :- represent a system at a particular point in time
iii. Dynamic Model:- represent system as they change over time
iv. Deterministic Model:- contains no random variables. They
have a known set of inputs which will result in a unique set of
outputs. Ex: Arrival of patients to the Dentist at the scheduled
appointment time
v. Stochastic Model:- where the effects of the activity vary
randomly over various possible outcomes
vi. Discrete Model
vii. Continuous Model
Simulation models may be mixed both with discrete and continuous.
The choice is based on the characteristics of the system and the
objective of the study.
 Principles used in Modeling
• It is not possible to provided rules by which
mathematical models are built, but a number of guiding
principles can be stated.
• They do not describe distinct steps carried out in
building a model. They describe different viewpoint
from which to judge the information to be included in
the model.
i. Block building: - the description of the system should be
organized in a series of blocks.
ii. Relevance: - The model should only include those aspects
of the system that are relevant to the study objective.
iii. Accuracy: - The accuracy of the information gathered for
the model should be considered.
iv. Aggregation: - the number of individual entities can be
grouped together into larger entities.
Elements of System Model

• Entities refer to the relevant things within a system.

• Rules govern how entities interact with one another.
Rules help determine what will happen next in the
system as the result of some system event.
• Inputs represent data that is needed to populate
various attributes of system entities.
• Activities represent things happening in the system
over a period of time.
• Delays represent future activities that will begin and
end in some possibly unknown time in the future.
Delays are the result of not having enough resources
at a given time to allow for all desired activities to
take place.
Cont..
• System State represents a collection of variables
that is sufficient for describing the system at any
given time. These variables are usually defined as a
subset of the collective set of individual entity
attributes.
• Events are instantaneous occurrences that changes
the state of the system. Two types of events include
– Internal: events occurring within the system.
– External: events occurring outside the system, or in the
system environment. These events usually represent the
addition (subtraction) of an entity to (from) the system.
System Model Example
• Elements of a Banking ATM System Model
– Entities customers, ATM machines, ATM cards, queues,
cash, checks, accounts. Customer attributes: arrival time
to ATM, type of transaction, amount to withdraw.
– Rules If ATM is in use, the customer waits in a FIFO queue.
– Inputs Withdrawing customers use “Quick Cash” option
63% of the time. A withdrawing customer withdraws
x dollars with probability p(x). The service time for a
customer at an ATM follows an exponential
distribution with mean service rate of λ = 0.5.
– Activities Cash is being withdrawn from the ATM. Checks
are being deposited to the ATM.
– Delays A customer is waiting in line for her/his turn to use
the ATM.
Example Cont..
• System State The ATM machine is not being used.
The machine currently holds $10K in cash and 152
deposited checks. The wait queue is empty.
• Events
– Internal: a customer has finished service at the ATM
machine.
– External: a customer has arrived to withdraw cash from
ATM machine.
 Steps in a Simulation study
1. Problem formulation:- Every study begins with a statement of the
problem, provided by policy makers
2. Setting of objectives and overall project plan:- The
objectives indicate the questions to be answered by simulation.
3. Model Conceptualization/Development:- abstract the
essential features of a system; select and modify basic assumptions that
characterize the system.
4. Data collection:-Objective kinds of data are to be collected.
5. Model Translation/Programming:- the model is programmed
on a computer using either a general-purpose language, or a simulation
language/package
6. Verified:-determine if the model has been programmed correctly.
Includes module and integration testing.
7. Validated:-determine if the model is an accurate representation of the
system.
8. Experimental Design:- design a set of experiments whose
results will help start the process of answering some of the questions set
forth during the objective-setting phase.
9. Production runs and analysis:-They are used to estimate
measures of performance for the system designs that are being
simulated
10. More runs:-the analyst determines if additional runs are needed and
what design those additional experiments should follow.
11. Documentation and reporting:-
 Program documentation  can be used again by the same or
different analysts to understand how the program operates.
 Process documentation  gives the history of a simulation project.
12. Implementation:- includes implementing changes to the system
or developing an altogether new system.
 The simulation model building can be broken into 4 phases

1. Phase I :- Consists of steps 1 and 2.

It is period of discovery/orientation.
2. II Phase II :-Consists of steps 3,4,5,6 and 7.
A continuing interplay is required among the
steps
3. II Phase III:-Consists of steps 8, 9 and 10.
Conceives a thorough plan for experimenting.
4. II Phase IV:-Consists of steps 11 and 12.
Successful implementation depends on the
involvement of user and every steps successful
completion.
 STEPS IN A SIMULATION STUDY

Model
No Experimental
conceptualization
Design
Setting of Yes
Problem objectives Model Yes
Verified? Validated? Production runs
formulation and overall translation
project plan and analysis
No
Yes Yes
Data No More runs?
collection
No
Documentation
Implementation and reporting
 Q&A

I Thank You