8-1 Introduction

• In the previous chapter we illustrated how a parameter

can be estimated from sample data. However, it is
important to understand how good is the estimate
obtained.
• Bounds that represent an interval of plausible values
for a parameter are an example of an interval estimate.
*statistic :


1) Mean of sample: X
• Three types of intervals will be presented:2) Variance of sample: S 2

3) S.t deviation of sample: S

• Confidence intervals (CI)
• Prediction intervals
x
4) Proportion of sample : pˆ 
n
*Parameter:
1) Mean of population: 
2) Variance of population:  2
3) S.t deviation of population:

• Tolerance intervals 4) Proportion of population:p

Confident Interval (CI):    l , u 
Confident level:1   (95%,90%,99%,.
 8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of
a Normal Distribution, Variance Known

8-2.1 Development of the Confidence Interval

and its Basic Properties
 8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of
a Normal Distribution, Variance Known

8-2.1 Development of the Confidence Interval

and its Basic Properties
 8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of
a Normal Distribution, Variance Known

8-2.1 Development of the Confidence Interval and its Basic

Properties
The endpoints or bounds l and u are called lower- and upper-
confidence limits, respectively.
• Since Z follows a standard normal distribution, we can write:
 8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of
a Normal Distribution, Variance Known

8-2.1 Development of the Confidence Interval and its

Basic Properties
Definition
 
*statistic :
1) Mean of sample: X
Find z /2 ? 2) Variance of sample: S2
3) S.t deviation of sample: S
EX :1    95%  0.95
x
4) Proportion of sample : pˆ 
1    0.95    0.05 n
*Parameter:

  0.025  z /2  z0.025  1.96? 1) Mean of population: 
2 2) Variance of population:  2
 3) S.t deviation of population:
P  Z  z /2   1  4) Proportion of population:p
2
Confident Interval (CI):    l , u 
P  Z  z0.025   1  0.025  0.975
Confident level:1   (95%,90%,99%,...)

Confident Interval (CI ) for the mean of population ( ) when variance   2  known with confident level 1- :

E
 
X  z /2 .    X  z /2 . *The length of CI : L  2 E 1 n?
n n
    
2

* Error : E  z /2 .  n  z /2 .  n   z / 2 .  
n E  E 
 
*statistic :
1) Mean of sample: X
2) Variance of sample: S2
Find z ? 3) S.t deviation of sample: S
x
EX :1    95%  0.95 4) Proportion of sample : pˆ 
n
1    0.95    0.05 *Parameter:
1) Mean of population: 
 z  z0.05  1.65?
2) Variance of population:  2
P  Z  z   1   3) S.t deviation of population:
4) Proportion of population:p
P  Z  z0.05   1  0.05  0.95  0.950529 Confident Interval (CI):    l , u 
Confident level:1   (95%,90%,99%,...)

Confident Interval (CI ) for the mean of population ( ) when variance   2  known with confident leval 1- :

E
 
X  z /2 .    X  z /2 . *The length of CI : L  2 E 1 n?
n n
    
2

* Error : E  z /2 .  n  z /2 .  n   z / 2 .  
n E  E 
 8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of
a Normal Distribution, Variance Known

Example 8-1

1.96
* Error : E   0.62
10
 8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of
a Normal Distribution, Variance Known

Confidence Level and Precision of Error

The length of a confidence interval is a measure of the
precision of estimation.

Figure 8-2 Error in estimating  with x .

 8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of
a Normal Distribution, Variance Known

8-2.2 Choice of Sample Size

Definition
 8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of
a Normal Distribution, Variance Known

Example 8-2
 8-2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of
a Normal Distribution, Variance Known

8-2.3 One-Sided Confidence Bounds

Definition
 8-3 Confidence Interval on the Mean
of a Normal Distribution, Variance Unknown

8-3.1 The t distribution

 8-3 Confidence Interval on the Mean
of a Normal Distribution, Variance Unknown

8-3.1 The t distribution

Figure 8-4 Probability density functions of several t

distributions.
 8-3 Confidence Interval on the Mean
of a Normal Distribution, Variance Unknown

8-3.1 The t distribution

Figure 8-5 Percentage points of the t distribution.

 8-3 Confidence Interval on the Mean
of a Normal Distribution, Variance Unknown

8-3.2 The t Confidence Interval on 

One-sided confidence bounds on the mean are found by replacing

t/2,n-1 in Equation 8-18 with t ,n-1.
 8-3 Confidence Interval on the Mean
of a Normal Distribution, Variance Unknown
* Find t in A5 p.727 (711)
, n 1
2


1    95%  0.95    0.05   0.025
2
n  21

t  t0.025, 20  2.086 *statistic :
, n 1 1) Mean of sample: X
2
2) Variance of sample: S2
3) S.t deviation of sample: S
x
*Confident Interval (CI ) for the mean of population ( ) 4) Proportion of sample : pˆ 
n
when variance   2  UNknown with confident level 1- : *Parameter:
S S 1) Mean of population: 
X  t .    X  t .
2
, n 1 n 2
, n 1 n 2) Variance of population:  2
S 3) S.t deviation of population:
* lower CI : X  t , n 1. 
n 4) Proportion of population:p
* upper CI :   X  t , n 1.
S Confident Interval (CI):    l , u 
n Confident level:1   (95%,90%,99%,...)
 8-3 Confidence Interval on the Mean
of a Normal Distribution, Variance Unknown

Example 8-5
 8-3 Confidence Interval on the Mean
of a Normal Distribution, Variance Unknown

Figure 8-6 Box and Whisker plot for the load at failure
data in Example 8-5.
 8-3 Confidence Interval on the Mean
of a Normal Distribution, Variance Unknown

Figure 8-7 Normal probability plot of the load at

failure data in Example 8-5.
 8-4 Confidence Interval on the Variance and
Standard Deviation of a Normal Distribution

Definition
 8-4 Confidence Interval on the Variance and
Standard Deviation of a Normal Distribution

Figure 8-8 Probability

density functions of
several 2 distributions.
 8-4 Confidence Interval on the Variance and
Standard Deviation of a Normal Distribution

Definition
 8-4 Confidence Interval on the Variance and
Standard Deviation of a Normal Distribution

* Find  2
 ,v  ? A4


1    0.95    0.05   0.025
2
n  20
*  2   2 0.025;19  32.85
; n 1
2

*2    0.975;19
2
 8.91
1 ; n 1
2
 8-4 Confidence Interval on the Variance and
Standard Deviation of a Normal Distribution

One-Sided Confidence Bounds

 8-4 Confidence Interval on the Variance and
Standard Deviation of a Normal Distribution
Example 8-6
 8-5 A Large-Sample Confidence Interval
For a Population Proportion

Normal Approximation for Binomial Proportion

The quantity p(1  p) / n is called the standard error of the point

estimator P̂ .
 8-5 A Large-Sample Confidence Interval
For a Population Proportion (p)

x
pˆ  : proportion of sample
n
 8-5 A Large-Sample Confidence Interval
For a Population Proportion
Example 8-7
 8-5 A Large-Sample Confidence Interval
For a Population Proportion

Choice of Sample Size

The sample size for a specified value E is given by

E  z /2 p  1  p  / n

An upper bound on n is given by

 8-5 A Large-Sample Confidence Interval
For a Population Proportion
Example 8-8
 8-5 A Large-Sample Confidence Interval
For a Population Proportion

One-Sided Confidence Bounds

n  1200
x8
1    0.96    0.04  z0.04  1.75
8
pˆ 
1200