08 SBE11e PPT Ch07

Slides by
John
Loucks
St. Edward’s
University
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide
1
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Chapter 7
Sampling and Sampling Distributions
 Selecting a Sample
 Point Estimation
 Introduction to Sampling Distributions
 Sampling Distribution of x
 Sampling Distribution of p
 Properties of Point Estimators
 Other Sampling Methods
Slide
2
Introduction
An
An element
element is
is the
the entity
entity on
on which
which data
data are
are collected.
collected.
A
A population
population is
is aa collection
collection of
of all
all the
the elements
elements of
of
interest.
interest.
A
A sample
sample is
is aa subset
subset of
of the
the population.
population.
The
The sampled
sampled population
population is
is the
the population
population from
from
which
which the
the sample
sample is
is drawn.
drawn.
A
A frame
frame is
is aa list
list of
of the
the elements
elements that
that the
the sample
sample will
will
be
be selected
selected from.
from.
Slide
3
Introduction
The
The reason
reason we
we select
select aa sample
sample is
is to
to collect
collect data
data to
to
answer
answer aa research
research question
question about
about aa population.
population.
The
The sample
sample results
results provide
provide only
only estimates
estimates of
of the
the
values
values of
of the
the population
population characteristics.
characteristics.
The
The reason
reason is
is simply
simply that
that the
the sample
sample contains
contains only
only aa
portion
portion of
of the
the population.
population.
With
With proper
proper sampling
sampling methods,
methods, the
the sample
sample results
results
can
can provide
provide “good”
“good” estimates
estimates of
of the
the population
population
characteristics.
characteristics.
Slide
4
Selecting a Sample
 Sampling from a Finite Population
 Sampling from an Infinite Population
Slide
5
Sampling from a Finite Population
 Finite populations are often defined by lists such as:
• Organization membership roster
• Credit card account numbers
• Inventory product numbers
 A simple random sample of size n from a finite
population of size N is a sample selected such that
each possible sample of size n has the same probability
of being selected.
Slide
6
 Replacing each sampled element before selecting

subsequent elements is called sampling with
replacement.
 Sampling without replacement is the procedure
used most often.
 In large sampling projects, computer-generated
random numbers are often used to automate the
sample selection process.
Slide
7
 Example: St. Andrew’s College
St. Andrew’s College received 900 applications for
admission in the upcoming year from prospective
students. The applicants were numbered, from 1 to
900, as their applications arrived. The Director of
Admissions would like to select a simple random
sample of 30 applicants.
Slide
8
Step 1: Assign a random number to each of the 900
applicants.
The random numbers generated by Excel’s

RAND function follow a uniform probability
distribution between 0 and 1.
Step 2: Select the 30 applicants corresponding to the
30 smallest random numbers.
Slide
9
Sampling from an Infinite Population
 Sometimes we want to select a sample, but find it is

not possible to obtain a list of all elements in the
population.
 As a result, we cannot construct a frame for the
population.
 Hence, we cannot use the random number selection
procedure.
 Most often this situation occurs in infinite population
cases.
Slide
10
 Populations are often generated by an ongoing process
where there is no upper limit on the number of units
that can be generated.
 Some examples of on-going processes, with infinite
populations, are:
• parts being manufactured on a production line
• transactions occurring at a bank
• telephone calls arriving at a technical help desk
• customers entering a store
Slide
11
 In the case of an infinite population, we must select

a random sample in order to make valid statistical
inferences about the population from which the
sample is taken.
 A random sample from an infinite population is a
sample selected such that the following conditions
are satisfied.
• Each element selected comes from the population
of interest.
• Each element is selected independently.
Slide
12
Point Estimation
Point
Point estimation
estimation is
is aa form
form of
of statistical
statistical inference.
inference.
In
In point
point estimation
estimation wewe use
use the
the data
data from
from the
the sample
sample
to
to compute
compute aa value
value ofof aa sample
sample statistic
statistic that
that serves
serves
as
as an
an estimate
estimate of
of aa population
population parameter.
parameter.
We
We refer to x as
refer to as the
the point
point estimator
estimator of
of the
the population
population
mean ..
mean
ss is
is the
the point
point estimator
estimator of
of the
the population
population standard
standard
deviation ..
deviation
p is
is the
the point
point estimator
estimator of
of the
the population
population proportion
proportion p.
p.
Slide
13
Point Estimation
Recall that St. Andrew’s College received 900
applications from prospective students. The
application form contains a variety of information
including the individual’s Scholastic Aptitude Test
(SAT) score and whether or not the individual desires
on-campus housing.
At a meeting in a few hours, the Director of
Admissions would like to announce the average SAT
score and the proportion of applicants that want to
live on campus, for the population of 900 applicants.
Slide
14
Point Estimation
However, the necessary data on the applicants have
not yet been entered in the college’s computerized
database. So, the Director decides to estimate the
values of the population parameters of interest based
on sample statistics. The sample of 30 applicants is
selected using computer-generated random numbers.
Slide
15
Point Estimation
 x as Point Estimator of 
x
x

32,910
i
 1097
30 30
 s as Point Estimator of 
s
 i
( x  x )2

163, 996
 75.2
29 29
 p as Point Estimator of p
p  20 30  .68
Note: Different random numbers would have
identified a different sample which would have
resulted in different point estimates.
Slide
16
Point Estimation
Once all the data for the 900 applicants were entered
in the college’s database, the values of the population
parameters of interest were calculated.
 Population Mean SAT Score

 xi
 1090
900
 Population Standard Deviation for SAT Score

 i
( x   )2
 80
900
 Population Proportion Wanting On-Campus Housing
648
p  .72
900
Slide
17
Summary of Point Estimates
Obtained from a Simple Random Sample
Population Parameter Point Point

Parameter Value Estimator Estimate
m = Population mean 1090 x = Sample mean 1097
SAT score SAT score
s = Population std. 80 s = Sample std. 75.2

deviation for deviation for
SAT score SAT score
p = Population pro- .72 p = Sample pro- .68

portion wanting portion wanting
campus housing campus housing
Slide
18
Sampling Distribution of x
 Process of Statistical Inference
Population A simple random sample

with mean of n elements is selected
m=? from the population.
The value of x is used to The sample data

make inferences about provide a value for
the value of m. the sample mean x .
Slide
20
The sampling distribution of x is the probability

distribution of all possible values of the sample
mean x .
• Expected Value of x
E( x ) = 
where:  = the population mean

When the expected value of the point estimator
equals the population parameter, we say the point
estimator is unbiased.
Slide
21
• Standard Deviation of x
We will use the following notation to define the

standard deviation of the sampling distribution of x.
sx = the standard deviation of x

s = the standard deviation of the population
n = the sample size
N = the population size
Slide
22
• Standard Deviation of x
Finite Population Infinite Population
N n  
x  ( ) x 
N 1 n n
• A finite population is treated as being
infinite if n/N < .05.
• ( N  n) / ( N  1) is the finite population
correction factor.
•  x is referred to as the standard error of
the
mean.
Slide
23
When the population has a normal distribution, the

sampling distribution of x is normally distributed
for any sample size.
In most applications, the sampling distribution of x

can be approximated by a normal distribution
whenever the sample is size 30 or more.
In cases where the population is highly skewed or

outliers are present, samples of size 50 may be
needed.
Slide
24
The sampling distribution of x can be used to

provide probability information about how close
the sample mean x is to the population mean m .
Slide
25
Central Limit Theorem
When the population from which we are selecting

a random sample does not have a normal distribution,
the central limit theorem is helpful in identifying the
shape of the sampling distribution of x .
CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM

In selecting random samples of size n from a
population, the sampling distribution of the sample
mean x can be approximated by a normal
distribution as the sample size becomes large.
Slide
26
Sampling
Distribution  80
of x x    14.6
n 30
for SAT
Scores
x
E( x )  1090
Slide
27
What is the probability that a simple random
sample of 30 applicants will provide an estimate of
the population mean SAT score that is within +/- 10
of the actual population mean  ?
In other words, what is the probability that x will
be between 1080 and 1100?
Slide
28
Step 1: Calculate the z-value at the upper endpoint of
the interval.
z = (1100 - 1090)/14.6= .68
Step 2: Find the area under the curve to the left of the
upper endpoint.
P(z < .68) = .7517
Slide
29
Cumulative Probabilities for

the Standard Normal Distribution
z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
. . . . . . . . . . .
.5 .6915 .6950 .6985 .7019 .7054 .7088 .7123 .7157 .7190 .7224
.6 .7257 .7291 .7324 .7357 .7389 .7422 .7454 .7486 .7517 .7549
.7 .7580 .7611 .7642 .7673 .7704 .7734 .7764 .7794 .7823 .7852
.8 .7881 .7910 .7939 .7967 .7995 .8023 .8051 .8078 .8106 .8133
.9 .8159 .8186 .8212 .8238 .8264 .8289 .8315 .8340 .8365 .8389
. . . . . . . . . . .
Slide
30
Sampling
Distribution  x  14.6
of x
for SAT
Scores
Area = .7517
x
1090 1100
Slide
31
Step 3: Calculate the z-value at the lower endpoint of
the interval.
z = (1080 - 1090)/14.6= - .68
lower endpoint.
P(z < -.68) = .2483
Slide
32
Sampling Distribution of x for SAT Scores
Sampling
of x
for SAT
Scores
Area = .2483
x
1080 1090
Slide
33
Step 5: Calculate the area under the curve between
the lower and upper endpoints of the interval.
P(-.68 < z < .68) = P(z < .68) - P(z < -.68)
= .7517 - .2483
= .5034
The probability that the sample mean SAT score will
be between 1080 and 1100 is:
P(1080 < x < 1100) = .5034
Slide
34
Sampling
of x
for SAT
Scores
Area = .5034
x
1080 1090 1100
Slide
35
Relationship Between the Sample Size
and the Sampling Distribution of x
• Suppose we select a simple random sample of 100
applicants instead of the 30 originally considered.
• E( x) = m regardless of the sample size. In our
example, E( x ) remains at 1090.
• Whenever the sample size is increased, the standard
error of the mean  x is decreased. With the increase
in the sample size to n = 100, the standard error of
the mean is decreased from 14.6 to:
 80
x    8.0
n 100
Slide
36
With n = 100,
x  8
With n = 30,
 x  14.6
x
E( x )  1090
Slide
37
• Recall that when n = 30, P(1080 < x < 1100) = .5034.
• We follow the same steps to solve for P(1080 < x
< 1100) when n = 100 as we showed earlier when
n = 30.
• Now, with n = 100, P(1080 < x < 1100) = .7888.
• Because the sampling distribution with n = 100 has a
smaller standard error, the values of x have less
variability and tend to be closer to the population
mean than the values of x with n = 30.
Slide
38
Sampling x  8
Distribution
of x
for SAT
Scores
Area = .7888
x
1080 1090 1100
Slide
39
Sampling Distribution of p
 Making Inferences about a Population Proportion
Population A simple random sample

with proportion of n elements is selected
p=? from the population.
The value of p is used The sample data

to make inferences provide a value for the
about the value of p. sample proportion p.
Slide
40
The sampling distribution of p is the probability

distribution of all possible values of the sample
proportion p .
• Expected Value of p
E ( p)  p
where:
p = the population proportion
Slide
41
• Standard Deviation of p
Finite Population Infinite Population
N  n p(1  p) p(1  p )
p  p 
N 1 n n
•  p is referred to as the standard error of

the proportion.
• is the finite population
( N  n ) / ( N  1)
correction factor.
Slide
42
Form of the Sampling Distribution of p
The sampling distribution ofp can be approximated

by a normal distribution whenever the sample size
is large enough to satisfy the two conditions:
np > 5 and n(1 – p) > 5
. . . because when these conditions are satisfied, the

probability distribution of x in the sample proportion,
p = x/n, can be approximated by normal distribution
(and because n is a constant).
Slide
43
Recall that 72% of the prospective students applying
to St. Andrew’s College desire on-campus housing.
What is the probability that a simple random sample
of 30 applicants will provide an estimate of the
population proportion of applicant desiring on-campus
housing that is within plus or minus .05 of the actual
population proportion?
Slide
44
For our example, with n = 30 and p = .72, the
normal distribution is an acceptable approximation
because:
np = 30(.72) = 21.6 > 5

and
n(1 - p) = 30(.28) = 8.4 > 5
Slide
45
Sampling .72(1 .72)

Distribution p   .082
30
of p
p
E( p )  .72
Slide
46
Step 1: Calculate the z-value at the upper endpoint
of the interval.
z = (.77 - .72)/.082 = .61
Step 2: Find the area under the curve to the left of
the upper endpoint.
P(z < .61) = .7291
Slide
47
Cumulative Probabilities for
the Standard Normal Distribution
z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
. . . . . . . . . . .
.5 .6915 .6950 .6985 .7019 .7054 .7088 .7123 .7157 .7190 .7224
.6 .7257 .7291 .7324 .7357 .7389 .7422 .7454 .7486 .7517 .7549
.7 .7580 .7611 .7642 .7673 .7704 .7734 .7764 .7794 .7823 .7852
.8 .7881 .7910 .7939 .7967 .7995 .8023 .8051 .8078 .8106 .8133
.9 .8159 .8186 .8212 .8238 .8264 .8289 .8315 .8340 .8365 .8389
. . . . . . . . . . .
Slide
48
Sampling  p  .082
Distribution
of p
Area = .7291
p
.72 .77
Slide
49
Step 3: Calculate the z-value at the lower endpoint of
the interval.
z = (.67 - .72)/.082 = - .61
lower endpoint.
P(z < -.61) = .2709
Slide
50
Distribution
of p
Area = .2709
p
.67 .72
Slide
51
Step 5: Calculate the area under the curve between
the lower and upper endpoints of the interval.
P(-.61 < z < .61) = P(z < .61) - P(z < -.61)
= .7291 - .2709
= .4582
The probability that the sample proportion of applicants
wanting on-campus housing will be within +/-.05 of the
actual population proportion :
P(.67 < p < .77) = .4582
Slide
52
Distribution
of p
Area = .4582
p
.67 .72 .77
Slide
53
End of Chapter 7
Slide
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 Replacing each sampled element before selecting

The random numbers generated by Excel’s

 Sometimes we want to select a sample, but find it is

 In the case of an infinite population, we must select

Population Parameter Point Point

s = Population std. 80 s = Sample std. 75.2

p = Population pro- .72 p = Sample pro- .68

Population A simple random sample

The value of x is used to The sample data

The sampling distribution of x is the probability

where:  = the population mean

We will use the following notation to define the

sx = the standard deviation of x

When the population has a normal distribution, the

In most applications, the sampling distribution of x

In cases where the population is highly skewed or

The sampling distribution of x can be used to

When the population from which we are selecting

CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM

Cumulative Probabilities for

P(1080 < x < 1100) = .5034

Population A simple random sample

The value of p is used The sample data

The sampling distribution of p is the probability

•  p is referred to as the standard error of

The sampling distribution ofp can be approximated

np > 5 and n(1 – p) > 5

. . . because when these conditions are satisfied, the

np = 30(.72) = 21.6 > 5

Sampling .72(1 .72)

P(.67 < p < .77) = .4582

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