16 SBE11e PPT Ch13a

Slides by
John
Loucks
St. Edward’s
University
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide
1
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Analysis of Variance: A Conceptual Overview
Analysis
Analysis of
of Variance
Variance (ANOVA)
(ANOVA) cancan be
be used
used to
to test
test
for
for the
the equality
equality of
of three
three or
or more
more population
population means.
means.
Data
Data obtained
obtained from
from observational
observational or
or experimental
experimental
studies
studies can
can be
be used
used for
for the
the analysis.
analysis.
We
We want
want to
to use
use the
the sample
sample results
results to
to test
test the
the
following
following hypotheses:
hypotheses:
H0: 1=2=3=. . .= k
Ha: Not all population means are equal
Slide
6
H0: 1=2=3=. . .= k
If
If H
H00 is
is rejected,
rejected, we
we cannot
cannot conclude
conclude that
that all
all
population
population means
means are
are different.
different.
Rejecting
Rejecting H
H00 means
means that
that at
at least
least two
two population
population
means
means have
have different
different values.
values.
Slide
7
 Assumptions for Analysis of Variance
For
For each
each population,
population, the
the response
response (dependent)
(dependent)
variable
variable is
is normally
normally distributed.
distributed.
The
The variance
variance of
of the
the response
response variable, denoted  22,,
variable, denoted
is
is the
the same
same for
for all
all of
of the
the populations.
populations.
The
The observations
observations must
must be
be independent.
independent.
Slide
8
 Sampling Distribution of x Given H0 is True
Sample means are close together

because there is only
one sampling distribution
when H0 is true.
 2
 x2 
n
x2  x1 x3
Slide
9
 Sampling Distribution of x Given H0 is False
Sample means come from

different sampling distributions
and are not as close together
when H0 is false.
x3 3 x1 1 2 x2
Slide
10
Analysis of Variance and
the Completely Randomized Design
 Between-Treatments Estimate of Population Variance
 Within-Treatments Estimate of Population Variance
 Comparing the Variance Estimates: The F Test
 ANOVA Table
Slide
11
Between-Treatments Estimate
of Population Variance s 2
 The estimate of  2 based on the variation of the
sample means is called the mean square due to
treatments and is denoted by MSTR.
 j j
n (
j 1
x  x ) 2
MSTR 
k1
Denominator is the Numerator is called

degrees of freedom the sum of squares due
associated with SSTR to treatments (SSTR)
Slide
12
Within-Treatments Estimate
of Population Variance s 2
 The estimate of  2 based on the variation of the
sample observations within each sample is called the
mean square error and is denoted by MSE.
k
2
 (n j  1) s 2j
j 1
MSE 
nT  k
Numerator is called
Denominator is the the sum of squares
degrees of freedom due to error (SSE)
associated with SSE
Slide
13
Comparing the Variance Estimates: The F Test
 If the null hypothesis is true and the ANOVA

assumptions are valid, the sampling distribution of
MSTR/MSE is an F distribution with MSTR d.f.
equal to k - 1 and MSE d.f. equal to nT - k.
 If the means of the k populations are not equal, the
value of MSTR/MSE will be inflated because MSTR
overestimates  2.
 Hence, we will reject H0 if the resulting value of
MSTR/MSE appears to be too large to have been
selected at random from the appropriate F
distribution.
Slide
14
Comparing the Variance Estimates: The F Test
 Sampling Distribution of MSTR/MSE
Sampling Distribution
of MSTR/MSE
Reject H0
Do Not Reject H0 a
MSTR/MSE
F
Critical Value
Slide
15
ANOVA Table
for a Completely Randomized Design
Source of Sum of Degrees of Mean p-

Variation Squares Freedom Square F Value
SSTR MSTR
Treatments SSTR k-1 MSTR 
k - 1 MSE
SSE
Error SSE nT - k MSE 
nT - k
Total SST nT - 1
SST’s degrees of freedom

SST is partitioned (d.f.) are partitioned into
into SSTR and SSE.
SSTR’s d.f. and SSE’s d.f.
Slide
16
ANOVA Table
SST
SST divided
divided by
by its
its degrees
degrees of
of freedom
freedom nnTT –– 11 is
is the
the
overall
overall sample
sample variance
variance that
that would
would be
be obtained
obtained ifif we we
treated
treated the
the entire
entire set
set of
of observations
observations as
as one
one datadata set.
set.
With
With the
the entire
entire data
data set
set as
as one
one sample,
sample, the
the formula
formula
for
for computing
computing thethe total
total sum
sum of
of squares,
squares, SST,
SST, is:
is:
k nj
SST   ( xij  x )2  SSTR  SSE

j  1 i 1
Slide
17
ANOVA Table
ANOVA
ANOVA can can be
be viewed
viewed as
as the
the process
process of
of partitioning
partitioning
the
the total
total sum
sum of
of squares
squares and
and the
the degrees
degrees of
of freedom
freedom
into
into their
their corresponding
corresponding sources:
sources: treatments
treatments and
and error.
error.
Dividing
Dividing the
the sum
sum of
of squares
squares byby the
the appropriate
appropriate
degrees
degrees of
of freedom
freedom provides
provides thethe variance
variance estimates
estimates
and
and the
the FF value
value used
used toto test
test the
the hypothesis
hypothesis of
of equal
equal
population
population means.
means.
Slide
18
Test for the Equality of k Population Means
 Hypotheses
H0: 1=2=3=. . .= k

 Test Statistic
F = MSTR/MSE
Slide
19
Test for the Equality of k Population Means
 Rejection Rule
p-value Approach: Reject H0 if p-value < a
Critical Value Approach: Reject H0 if F > Fa
where the value of F is based on an

F distribution with k - 1 numerator d.f.
and nT - k denominator d.f.
Slide
20
Testing for the Equality of k Population Means:
A Completely Randomized Design
 Example: AutoShine, Inc.
AutoShine, Inc. is considering marketing a long-
lasting car wax. Three different waxes (Type 1, Type 2,
and Type 3) have been developed.
In order to test the durability of these waxes, 5 new
cars were waxed with Type 1, 5 with Type 2, and 5
with Type 3. Each car was then repeatedly run
through an automatic carwash until the wax coating
showed signs of deterioration.
Slide
21
 Example: AutoShine, Inc.
The number of times each car went through the
carwash before its wax deteriorated is shown on the
next slide. AutoShine, Inc. must decide which wax
to market. Are the three waxes equally effective?
Factor . . . Car wax

Treatments . . . Type I, Type 2, Type 3
Experimental units . . . Cars
Response variable . . . Number of washes
Slide
22
Wax Wax Wax

Observation Type 1 Type 2 Type 3
1 27 33 29
2 30 28 28
3 29 31 30
4 28 30 32
5 31 30 31
Sample Mean 29.0 30.4 30.0

Sample Variance 2.5 3.3 2.5
Slide
23
 Hypotheses
H0: 1=2=3
Ha: Not all the means are equal
where:
1 = mean number of washes using Type 1 wax
Slide
24
 Mean Square Between Treatments
Because the sample sizes are all equal:
x  ( x1  x2  x3 )/3 = (29 + 30.4 + 30)/3 = 29.8
SSTR = 5(29–29.8)2 + 5(30.4–29.8)2 + 5(30–29.8)2 = 5.2
MSTR = 5.2/(3 - 1) = 2.6
 Mean Square Error
SSE = 4(2.5) + 4(3.3) + 4(2.5) = 33.2
MSE = 33.2/(15 - 3) = 2.77
Slide
25
 Rejection Rule
p-Value Approach: Reject H0 if p-value < .05

Critical Value Approach: Reject H0 if F > 3.89
where F.05 = 3.89 is based on an F distribution

with 2 numerator degrees of freedom and 12
denominator degrees of freedom
Slide
26
 Test Statistic
F = MSTR/MSE = 2.60/2.77 = .939
 Conclusion
The p-value is greater than .10, where F = 2.81.
(Excel provides a p-value of .42.)
Therefore, we cannot reject H0.
There is insufficient evidence to conclude that
the mean number of washes for the three wax
types are not all the same.
Slide
27
 ANOVA Table
Source of Sum of Degrees of Mean

Variation Squares Freedom Squares F p-Value
Treatments 5.2 2 2.60 .939 .42

Error 33.2 12 2.77
Total 38.4 14
Slide
28
An Observational Study
 Example: Reed Manufacturing
Janet Reed would like to know if there is any
significant difference in the mean number of hours
worked per week for the department managers at her
three manufacturing plants (in Buffalo, Pittsburgh,
and Detroit).
An F test will be conducted using a = .05.
Slide
29
A simple random sample of five managers from
each of the three plants was taken and the number of
hours worked by each manager in the previous week
is shown on the next slide.
Factor . . . Manufacturing plant

Treatments . . . Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Detroit
Experimental units . . . Managers
Response variable . . . Number of hours worked
Slide
30
Plant 1 Plant 2 Plant 3

Observation Buffalo Pittsburgh Detroit
1 48 73 51
2 54 63 63
3 57 66 61
4 54 64 54
5 62 74 56
Sample Mean 55 68 57
Sample Variance 26.0 26.5 24.5
Slide
31
 p -Value and Critical Value Approaches
1. Develop the hypotheses.
H0:  1= 2= 3
Ha: Not all the means are equal
where:
 1 = mean number of hours worked per
week by the managers at Plant 1
 2 = mean number of hours worked per
  3 = mean number of hours worked per
Slide
32
2. Specify the level of significance. a = .05
3. Compute the value of the test statistic.

Mean Square Due to Treatments
(Sample sizes are all equal.)
x = (55 + 68 + 57)/3 = 60
SSTR = 5(55 - 60)2 + 5(68 - 60)2 + 5(57 - 60)2 = 490
MSTR = 490/(3 - 1) = 245
Slide
33
3. Compute the value of the test statistic. (con’t.)
Mean Square Due to Error
SSE = 4(26.0) + 4(26.5) + 4(24.5) = 308
MSE = 308/(15 - 3) = 25.667
F = MSTR/MSE = 245/25.667 = 9.55
Slide
34
 ANOVA Table
Source of Sum of Degrees of Mean

Variation Squares Freedom Square F p-Value
Treatment 490 2 245 9.55 .0033
Error 308 12 25.667
Total 798 14
Slide
35
 p –Value Approach
4. Compute the p –value.
With 2 numerator d.f. and 12 denominator d.f.,

the p-value is .01 for F = 6.93. Therefore, the
p-value is less than .01 for F = 9.55.
5. Determine whether to reject H0.

The p-value < .05, so we reject H0.
We have sufficient evidence to conclude that the
mean number of hours worked per week by
department managers is not the same at all 3 plant.
Slide
36
 Critical Value Approach
4. Determine the critical value and rejection rule.
Based on an F distribution with 2 numerator
d.f. and 12 denominator d.f., F.05 = 3.89.
Reject H0 if F > 3.89
5. Determine whether to reject H0.
Because F = 9.55 > 3.89, we reject H0.
We have sufficient evidence to conclude that the
mean number of hours worked per week by
department managers is not the same at all 3 plant.
Slide
37
Multiple Comparison Procedures
 Suppose that analysis of variance has provided

statistical evidence to reject the null hypothesis of
equal population means.
 Fisher’s least significant difference (LSD) procedure
can be used to determine where the differences
occur.
Slide
38
Fisher’s LSD Procedure
 Hypotheses
H 0 : i   j
H a : i   j
 Test Statistic
xi  x j
t
MSE( 1 n  1 n )
i j
Slide
39
 Rejection Rule
p-value Approach:
Reject H0 if p-value < a
Critical Value Approach:
Reject H0 if t < -ta/2 or t > ta/2
where the value of ta/2 is based on a

t distribution with nT - k degrees of freedom.
Slide
40
_ _
Based on the Test Statistic xi - xj
 Hypotheses
H 0 : i   j
H a : i   j
 Test Statistic xi  x j
 Rejection Rule
Reject H0 if xi  x j > LSD
where
LSD  t /2 MSE( 1 n  1 n )
i j
Slide
41
Recall that Janet Reed wants to know if there is any
significant difference in the mean number of hours
worked per week for the department managers at her
three manufacturing plants.
Analysis of variance has provided statistical
evidence to reject the null hypothesis of equal
population means. Fisher’s least significant difference
(LSD) procedure can be used to determine where the
differences occur.
Slide
42
For  = .05 and nT - k = 15 – 3 = 12

degrees of freedom, t.025 = 2.179
LSD  t /2 MSE( 1 n  1 n )
i j
LSD  2. 179 25. 667 ( 1 5  1 5 )  6. 98
MSE value was

computed earlier
Slide
43
 LSD for Plants 1 and 2
• Hypotheses (A) H 0 : 1   2
H a : 1   2
• Rejection Rule
Reject H0 if x1  x2 > 6.98
• Test Statistic
x1  x2 = |55 - 68| = 13
• Conclusion
The mean number of hours worked at Plant 1 is
not equal to the mean number worked at Plant 2.
Slide
44
• Hypotheses (B) H 0 : 1   3
H a : 1   3
• Rejection Rule
• Test Statistic
x1  x3 = |55 - 57| = 2
• Conclusion
There is no significant difference between the mean
number of hours worked at Plant 1 and the mean
number of hours worked at Plant 3.
Slide
45
• Hypotheses (C) H 0 :  2  3
H a : 2  3
• Rejection Rule
• Test Statistic
x2  x3 = |68 - 57| = 11
• Conclusion
The mean number of hours worked at Plant 2 is
not equal to the mean number worked at Plant 3.
Slide
46
Type I Error Rates
 The comparison-wise Type I error rate a indicates

the level of significance associated with a single
pairwise comparison.
 The experiment-wise Type I error rate aEW is the
probability of making a Type I error on at least one of
the (k – 1)! pairwise comparisons.
aEW = 1 – (1 – a)(k – 1)!
 The experiment-wise Type I error rate gets larger for

problems with more populations (larger k).
Slide
47
End of Chapter 13, Part A
Slide
48

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Ha: Not all population means are equal

Ha: Not all population means are equal

 Assumptions for Analysis of Variance

 Sampling Distribution of x Given H0 is True

Sample means are close together

 Sampling Distribution of x Given H0 is False

Sample means come from

Denominator is the Numerator is called

 If the null hypothesis is true and the ANOVA

 Sampling Distribution of MSTR/MSE

Source of Sum of Degrees of Mean p-

SST’s degrees of freedom

SST   ( xij  x )2  SSTR  SSE

H0: 1=2=3=. . .= k

p-value Approach: Reject H0 if p-value < a

Critical Value Approach: Reject H0 if F > Fa

where the value of F is based on an

Factor . . . Car wax

Wax Wax Wax

Sample Mean 29.0 30.4 30.0

p-Value Approach: Reject H0 if p-value < .05

where F.05 = 3.89 is based on an F distribution

Source of Sum of Degrees of Mean

Treatments 5.2 2 2.60 .939 .42

Factor . . . Manufacturing plant

Plant 1 Plant 2 Plant 3

3. Compute the value of the test statistic.

Source of Sum of Degrees of Mean

With 2 numerator d.f. and 12 denominator d.f.,

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

 Suppose that analysis of variance has provided

Critical Value Approach:

Reject H0 if t < -ta/2 or t > ta/2

where the value of ta/2 is based on a

For  = .05 and nT - k = 15 – 3 = 12

LSD  2. 179 25. 667 ( 1 5  1 5 )  6. 98

MSE value was

 The comparison-wise Type I error rate a indicates

aEW = 1 – (1 – a)(k – 1)!

 The experiment-wise Type I error rate gets larger for

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