Management

Science:
Forecasting
Presentation by:
Sabado, Jana Beni Carolyn R. BSMA 1-
A
 PROBLEM
The chairperson of department of management at State University wants to forecast forecast the number of student who
will enroll in production and operations management (POM) next semester, in order to determine how many sections to
schedule. The chair has accumulated the following enrollment data for the past eight semesters:

Semester Students Enrolled in POM

1 400
2 450
3 350
4 420
5 500
6 575
7 490
8 650
 Compute the exponentially
smoothed forecast ( α = .20)
 Answer
Semester Students Forecast
Enrolled in Formula: Ft + 1 = α yt + (1- α) Ft
POM
1 400 -
2 450 Ft+1 = α y2 + (1- α) F2 = (.20)(450)+(1-.20)(400) = 90+320 = 410
3 350 Ft+1 = α y3 + (1- α) F3 = (.20)(350)+(.80)(410) = 70+328 = 398

4 420 Ft+1 = α y4 + (1- α) F4 = (.20)(420)+(.80)(398) = 84+318.4 = 402.4

5 500 Ft+1 = α y5 + (1- α) F5 = (.20)(500)+(.80)(402.4) = 100+321.92 = 421.92

6 575 Ft+1 = α y6 + (1- α) F6 = (.20)(575)+(.80)(421.92) = 115+337.54 = 452.54
7 490 Ft+1 = α y2 + (1- α) F7 = (.20) (490)+(.80)(452.54) = 98+362.03 = 460.03
8 650 Ft+1 = α y8 + (1- α) F8 = (.20)(650)+(.80)(460.03) = 130+368.02 = 498.02
Thank
You
Presentation by:
Sabado, Jana Beni Carolyn R. BSMA 1-
A