NEW GENERATION

INTERNATIONAL TRADE
INTELLIGENCE AND THE ART OF
EXPORTING

YAMAN KOÇ
THE DIMENSION INTERNATIONAL TRADE REACHED
HYPER COMPETITION 1994
 HYPER COMPETITION 1994
 MARKETS ARE SHRINKED
 COMPETITION INCREASED TO GLOBAL LEVEL
 IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO MAKE SUSTAINIBLE BUSINESS
THROUGH BEING LOCAL.
 PROFITS DECREASED AND KEEP DECREASING
 FINANCIAL POWER DOES NOT PROVIDE STRATEGICAL
ADVANTAGE ANYMORE
 TECHNOLOGHY AND PRODUCTION MOVES TO THE
EAST
 THERE HAS BEEN A REVOLUTION IN TRADE
INFORMATION
 BIG DATA AGE HAS COME
 THE CONCEPT OF TRADE INTELLIGENCE HAS ARISED
 HYPER COMPETITION + STAGNATION
CONTINUES SINCE 2007 = DRASTICALLY
INCREASED COMPETITION
THERE ARE 220 COUNTRIES TO EXPORT
 TARGET OF COMPANIES IN EXPORT

THE FASTEST AND EASIEST ENTERANCE

IN NEW MARKETS IN ORDER TO PROVIDE
SUSTAINABLE PROFITS AND
INCREASING THE MARKET SHARE AND
PROFITABTY IN CURRENT MARKETS
 THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MARKETING
AND EXPORT MARKETING
 International marketing provides theory
prepared for final customer
 Export Marketing is a B2B concept. Target
(Final) Customers are companies form all
kind.
 Porter and Kotler Approach is for large
scale companies and prepared for final
customes
 Export marketing is totally different.
 what are the problems of
compaines when exporting?
- UNABLE TO DETERMINE TARGET MARKET
- TRYING TO GET RESULTS ONLY BY ATTENDING FAIRS
- NOT USING THE OTHER TERM OF COMMUNICATION
- CAN NOT PROVIDE SUSTAINABLE TRADE IN
CURRENTLY EXPORTED MARKETS
- CAN NOT REACH TARGET CLIENT INFORMATION
- LACK OF FINANCIAL INFO AND INTELIGENCE OF
CUSTOMERS
- NOT HAVING A STRATEGY AND PLANNING
- LACK OF WORKFORCE EDUCATED IN EXPORT
MARKETING
- LACK OF KNOWLEDGE/USAGE OF GOVERNMENT
FUNDS AND POSSIBILITIES I
- INOPROPRIATE B2B APPROACHES
- NOT KNOWING THE CAPABILITIES OF THE FIRM
- NOT KNOWING THE CAPABILITIES OF COMPETITORS
- TRYING TO TAKE CUSTOMERS OF TURKISH
COMPETITORS
INTERNATIONAL TRADE PROFESSION
PYRAMIDE
 CONTEMPORARY POSSIBILITIES AND THE POINT
FOREIGN TRADE REACHED

«As the special forces and target oriented

forces are the backbone of an army, the key of
success in foreign trade is using the special
forces of foreign trade who will execute
marketing (the combat) as the backbone of
the system.
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE
WORLD OF COMPETITIVE
INTELLIGENCE
 15,000 COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE
PROFESSIONALS HAVE BEEN TRAINED IN
CHINA BETWEEN 2003 AND 2006

• «The SCIC Web site tells us that CI in China

has been growing since 2003, and that more
than 15,000 senior managers and CI
practitioners have been trained. «
 NATIONAL STRATEGIES ARE “MUST”S OF
INTERNATIONAL TRADE INTELLIGENCE
In an interview with Philippe Clerc, president of the
French "Competitiveness Intelligence Development
Council" Carried in the Chinese Competition Intelligence
Association (SCIC) in November 2007, said that "France
has established a national competition intelligence
strategy in 2003". We will not go into too much detail, but
it is interesting to note that in a symposium organized by
Clerc in Indonesia in 2007, "Indonesian authorities are
aiming to be one of the top 5 economic powers on earth
by 2025, using competitive intelligence". The author also
says that they have identified similar interests in Brazil,
India, Algeria and Morocco.
NATIONAL STRATEGY IS A MUST
 NATIONAL STRATEGY IS A MUST

For more than 70 years, A Basic Guide to

Exporting has given companies the information
they need to establish and grow their business
in international markets.
Whether you’re new to exporting or just want to learn the latest ideas and
techniques, and whether your product is a good or a service, this new 11th
Edition—completely rewritten, revised, and updated—will give you the nuts-
and-bolts information you need.
 NATIONAL STRATEGY IS A MUST

In choosing from among these channels,

markets, and countries, what’s the best
strategy for your business? There’s help
for that too—from private consultants,
from your home state and local U.S.
government sources, from the web, and
from this book. And much of the help is
free or costs very little. It is easy to
access, easy to use.
NATIONAL STRATEGY IS A MUST
 MARKET RESEARCH SUPPORT OF THE
STATE INSTITUTION OF UNITED KINGDOM
 “WORLD” WORKS ON COMPETITIVE
INTELLIGENCE SYSTEMS
* DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPETITIVE BUSINESS
INTELLIGENCE SYSTEM
A. Vasilopoulos St. John’s University vasilopa@stjohns.edu

*HOW TO IMPLEMENT COMPETITIVE

INTELLIGENCE IN SMES?
Pascal Frion Cerege Laboratory, University of Poitiers Acrie
Network, Acrie Nantes, France

EVERY YEAR HUNDREDS OF

ARTICLES ARE PUBLISHED
TRADE INTELLIGENCE IN AN HYPER
COMPETITION ENVIRONMENT IS A
MATTER OF OF:
“TO BE OR NOT TO BE”
 DEVELOPMENTS IN
COMPETITIVE
INTELLIGENCE IN TURKEY
 ESTABLISHMENT OF TRADE
INTELLIGENCE CENTERS

http://dtim.kayseriosb.org/
 THE POINT FOREIGN TRADE
THEORY REACHED IN OUR ERA
 IS IT POSSIBLE TO CREATE A
COMPLETE AND IN INTEGRITY
FOREIGN TRADE THEORY ?

The thought that the space is always underestimated derived

from the quantum mechanics...
The blur created in determinism, derived from human brain-
artificial intelligence chaos and complexity theories together
with DNA studies in biology...
Foresight certainty is almost lost in our day.
It is expressed in military strategy and in foreign trade. The
studies of “modelling secret variables” can bring more exact
results.
IS FOREIGN TRADE IS A
SCIENCE?
 WHAT ARE THE MAIN ASPECTS OF SCIENCE?
1) The "causality" principle, which can be
expressed as "every event has a cause"
2) “The principle of "determinism" which
finds the expression "every experiment
repeated under the same conditions always
gives the same results"
3) “There are physical quantities that
characterize each phenomenon and are only
measured” Measurability principle 
 WHAT ARE THE MAIN ASPECTS OF SCIENCE?
4) The principle of "Consistency" (or Non-
Conflict) which is expressed as "the results of
the Natural Sciences can not be contradictory in
themselves"
5) ( K.R. Popper) principle, which states that
"there must be a path-procedure that allows the
test of whether the results of the natural
sciences are wrong". (Ahmet Yüksek Ozemre,
«Physicians in the XX Century)
FOREIGN TRADE IS 'A CLOSER TO
ART' DISCIPLINE USING
SCIENTIFIC METHODS
 What constitutes "FRICTION" in foreign trade?
What are the "HIDDEN VARIABLES"?

• International Trade Flows statistics are not absolute and

certain and require to be interpreted and corrected
• Domestic market statistics are not absolute and certain
and require to be interpreted and corrected
• Data discontinuity and variability of recent changes in the
markets
• Lack of foresight in the planned legal changes at customs
• Unknown and unpredictable effects of political friction
• Unknown and unpredictable changes in the sector
 What constitutes "FRICTION" in foreign trade?
What are the "HIDDEN VARIABLES"?
• The importance of the obstacles introduced by internal
legislative changes and thelack of information of new
changes
• Unknown and unpredictable tendency of foreign
investments to contract imports
• Not foreseeing currency fluctuations and effects
• Not knowing the changes in customs tax rates in time
and foreseeing change plans in time.
• Lack of Prediction of changes in internal production and
outsource production
• Impact of logistics and unpredictability of changes
• Non-tariff barriers, their effects and unknown time of
application.
 IS IT POSSIBLE TO CREATE A
COMPLETE AND IN INTEGRITY
FOREIGN TRADE THEORY ?

Clausewitz «The place where the purpose is to create,

to bring to the square is the field of art. science is
dominant where research and knowledge are targeted.
From all of these, it turns out that the saying art of
war is more apropriate than saying science of war»
«It is better to compare war with trade than with any
art; because trade is a conflict of interest and activity
among people »
 ART OF FOREIGN TRADE

INTELLIGENCE ART OF STRATEGY

EXPORTING

COMMUNICATION
TRADE TRANSFORMED TO A FULL WAR, MILITARY
TERMINOLOGY AND TECHNIQUES ARE USED IN
TRADE NOW

STRATEGY- TACTICS
INTELLIGENCE
PLANNING
SPECIAL FORCES
SENSITIVE TARGET DETERMINATION
 COMPETITION IN TRADE

Dealing with competition has become a matter of “to

be or not be”Clausewitz;
“.. it may be more appropriate to compare the war with
the trade than to compare with arts or science; because
competition in trade or trade is a conflict of human
interests and activities. Clausewitz C.V.;
 THE IMPORTANCE OF STRATEGICAL THINKING IN
INTERNATIONAL TRADE

• A person has to learn what he faces in

war,he has to learn them for war.Everything
is so simple, but the simpliest thing is
hard...It took so long to solve the
contradiction between those thesis because
the simplicty of information required for
war was not accepted.
 know yourself
know your opponent
know the fıeld
you wıll be succesfull ın every battle

the maın ıssue ıs to wın wıthout a battle

Sun tzu
OUR ERA IS THE “BIG DATA” ERA
AND THE 21st CENTURY
STRATEGIES WILL BE BASED ON
“BIG DATA”
 THE ART OF MAKING THE DATA

“TALK”

THE ART
OF
INTELLIGENCE EXPORT STRATEGY

COMMUNICATION
 DATA-INFORMATION-INTELLIGENCE
Data: Unrelated piece of information

Information: Modelling through data

Intelligence: Refined information for operations

Knowledge : information of making business

 how much data exıst?
The amount of information stored in the
world grows four times faster than the
world economy

The amount of information stored in 2013

is around 1,200 exabytes

If they were all printed on books, they

could cover the US surface in 54 layers.
 «SIMPLE STRATEGY FROM BIG DATA»

• A study by the McKinsey Global Institute (Manyika et al. 2011)

predicted that until 2018, the US would need between 140,000 and
190,000 people with "high analytical skills". In addition, he predicted
that there could be "1.5 million" data experts "with" the ability to
make and analyze large "data to make effective decisions.
• Strategic Intelligence is the ability to produce "a great knowledgeable
simple strategy". By: Veda C. Storey, McKinsey, Mack Robinson
College of Business, Georgia State University, MIS Quarterly Vol. 36
No. 4, pp. 1165-1188 / December 2012, 1165
 ABOUT CO-RELATION
Victor Mayer and Kenneth Cukier, who write the book titled
"Big Data", point out:
"Through BIG DATA, We are often satisfied with a sense of
general direction, than knowing about an issue from a
centimeter to a penny, to an atom. We certainly do not give
up completely; we just give up on our commitment to him.
We gain at macro level of insight what we lose in truth at
micro level ... "" And we get away from the understanding of
old causality. "..." On the contrary, we do not need to be
caught in causality "; the corelation is the main issue .Mayer
Victor and Kenneth Cukier Keneth, Big Data "Paloma
Publications" May 2013, Istanbul, p. 21
 ABOUT CO-RELATION
…”On the contrary, we do not need to be
caught in causality; instead we can
discover the models and correlations that
present us with new and invaluable
insights into the data. Correlation can not
tell us exactly why something is
happening, but it warns us that it is
HAPPENING "
A.g.e. s. 22
 ABOUT CO-RELATION
"In essence, statistical correlations are interested
in changes between two data values . A strong
correlation means that when one of the data
values changes, the other is more likely to change
"

If import of a country is growing, many new

importers are born in that country. We can also
show this in numbers.
 let the data talk
The point is actually to create a bigger
data and to "let it speak".
This makes extensive work compulsory.
This perspective allows us to better
understand what is actually being done
in the foreign trade intelligence
approach and see ways to do it better.
A MODEL THAT FINDS THE CHEAPEST

TICKET
Etzioni;
• From the travel website,
• 41-day
• Analyzing 12,000 price
observations
• With no act of cause
• Creating a model that finds the
cheapest ticket
THE ART OF MAKING THE DATA

“TALK”
"SIMPLE MODELS WITH MULTIPLE
DATA LEAVE DETAILED MODELS
WITH LESS DATA IN THE SHADOWS
"The Unreasonable Effectiveness of
Data" Peter Norvig

BP continually measured the tension on

oil pipelines at certain intervals, and
learned that some types of crude oil are
more corrosive than others.
 let the data talk
Walmart analyzed its the huge database of the old
transactions, the number of items purchased by each
customer, the total cost, what is the difference, the time of
day and the weather etc ...

An example;
Before a hurricane, company noticed that sales for not only
a flashlight but also an American breakfast cereal with
sugar increased. And by putting the cereal on the same
shelf with the flashlight, the sales were boomed!
 ups experıence logıcal analysys

UPS 60,000 VEHICLE FLEET

SPECIFIC PARTS TO CHANGE FAILURES

CHANGED WITH SPECIFIC TIMES

BY USING SENSORS IN CERTAIN PARTS SAVED

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS BY DETERMINING THE
WORNED PART BEFORE IT IS UNUSABLE
 THE CHANGE IN COMMERCIAL INFORMATION
1. Access to commercial flows around the world, single product
based, up-to-date and statistically.
2. Opening customs records in some countries.
3. Informing the financial information about the companies and
the companies that have gone bankrupt.
4. Access to commercial information sources is easy to facilitate
and information strengthening of indexes.
5. Internet has widened to an area that can be searched for
commercial information easily.
6. Increase of "precision" and "sensitivity" of knowledge
7. Increases in the number and quality of qualified market
researches.
8. The birth of warning systems and new generation guides
MOSCOW WINDOW AND DOOR COMPANIES
THE CHANGE IN COMMERCIAL INFORMATION
THE CHANGE IN COMMERCIAL INFORMATION
THE CHANGE IN COMMERCIAL INFORMATION
THE CHANGE IN COMMERCIAL INFORMATION
COUNTRIES EXPORTING CARPETS TO
KAZAKHSTAN
COMPANIES EXPORTING CARPETS TO
KAZAKHSTAN
COMPANIES IMPORTING CARPETS IN
KAZAKHSTAN
THE RISK ASSESMENTS OF COMPANIES
FINANCIAL DATA OF THE COMPANIES
INFORMATION TYPE OF FIRMS ARE
CHANGING
US IMPOTS BY DISTRICT
FROM INFORMATION TO OPERATION
 STEPS OF THE PROCESS
The process consists of 4 parts.
1. Identification of target markets.
2. Analysis of the target market
3. Determination of the target customers and
competitors,
     appointments, travel plans
     done.
4. Operation plan
RIGHT ON TARGET EXPORT MODEL
RIGHT ON TARGET EXPORT MODEL
RIGHT ON TARGET EXPORT MODEL
• GOAL:
• It is aimed to make strategic and tactical
decisions on the basis of global
developments through the establishment of
international trade intelligence systems, to
determine target markets, to measure
performance in existing markets and to
achieve sustainable profitability in
FOREIGN TRADE based on TRADE
INTELLIGENCE and INFORMATION.
 THE ART OF MAKING THE DATA

“TALK”

THE ART
OF
INTELLIGENCE EXPORT STRATEGY

COMMUNICATION
 BEATING HYPER COMPETITION
-SUSTAINABLE PROFITABILITY
• COMMERCIAL INFORMATION - INTELLIGENCE

AND INTELLIGENCE -COUNTER INTELLIGENCE

SYSTEMS

• USAGE OF STRATEGY AND INTELLIGENCE

• CREATING SUSTAINABLE PROFITABILITY BY

MARKET AND COMPETITOR ANALYSIS

STRATEGY IS THE ART
OF USING
FORCE
STRATEGY IS WELDING TWO METALS
BY CANDLE LIGHT
WELDING WITH A CANDLE
 PRINCIPLES OF STRATEGY
According to Napoleon, the art of
war was simple and discreet.
Everything to do was manifested
in practice ... there was no theory
... This art was simple in
nature ... what was necessary was
"to use a greater force than the
enemy in the point to be attacked
or defended" »
 PRINCIPLES OF STRATEGY

"It is necessary to have alternative objectives

to capture a target. A converging attack
directed at a point must threaten another
point and -if necessary- be diverted there.
The strategy can only be adjusted to the
unstable nature of the harness thanks to this
flexibility towards targeting "» (Lidel Hart)
 DEFINITION OF STRATEGY
"In an analysis of the
conceptual development of the
strategy statement, 91
definitions were defined from
1962 to 2008» (Lawrence
Freedman)
 DEFINITION OF STRATEGY
«IT IS RELATED TO INCREASE A
BALANCE BETWEEN THEIR
GOALS, METHODS AND
RESOURCES ... THIS BALANCE
IS REALIZED AND REALIZED
THAT YOU WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO RESULTS» (Lawrence
Freedman)
 PRINCIPLES OF STRATEGY
• DETERMINATION OF TARGET
AND INSISTING ON THE
RESULT
• ESTABLISHING A WEIGHT
CENTER
• CO-WORKING
• HOLDING INITIATIVE IN
HAND BY CRITICAL
INTERVENTIONS
 PRINCIPLES OF STRATEGY
• POWER ECONOMY
• SIMPLICITY IN
PLANNING
• USAGE OF THE TOOLS
COORDINATED ANDIN
ORDER TO INCREASE
THE IMPACT
 PRINCIPLES OF STRATEGY

• UNITY IN COMMAND
• RAID
• LEADERSHIP
• CORRECT USAGE OF
TIME AND SPACE
 PRINCIPLES OF STRATEGY
• STRATEGEM
• SCENARIO
• MOTIVATION AND
MOOD
TARGET CLIENT GROUPS
TARGET CLIENT ACCORDING TO DISTRIBUTION
NETWORK
THE PRINCIPLE OF WEIGHT
CENTER
WEIGHT CENTER
 THE PRINCIPLE OF
WEIGHT CENTER
• TARGET CUSTOMER
• IMPORTER
• WHOLESELLER
• ”SIDE”CUSTOMER
• RETAILER
WEIGHT CENTER, CONVERTING
WHOLESALER TO IMPORTER
WEIGHT CENTER, CONVERTING
WHOLESALER TO IMPORTER
WEIGHT CENTER, CONVERTING
WHOLESALER TO IMPORTER
WEIGHT CENTER, CONVERTING
WHOLESALER TO IMPORTER
WEIGHT CENTER, CONVERTING
WHOLESALER TO IMPORTER
WEIGHT CENTER, CONVERTING
WHOLESALER TO IMPORTER
WEIGHT CENTER, CONVERTING
WHOLESALER TO IMPORTER
WEIGHT CENTER, CONVERTING
WHOLESALER TO IMPORTER
WEIGHT CENTER, CONVERTING
WHOLESALER TO IMPORTER
WEIGHT CENTER, CONVERTING
WHOLESALER TO IMPORTER
WEIGHT CENTER, TARGET
CUSTOMER
WEIGHT CENTER EXPORTERS BY
SIZE
WEIGHT CENTER IMPORTERS BY
SIZE
WEIGHT CENTER IMPORTERS
BUYING FROM ITALY
 ART OF FOREIGN TRADE

INTELLIGENCE ART OF STRATEGY

EXPORTING

COMMUNICATION
 TRADE INTELLIGENCE
The conductor
interprets
notes and
music, while
the trade
intelligence is
the art of
interpreting
data and
knowledge.
HSIM HELESONIC SCREW
INTELLIGENCE MODEL
Blunt and helical screw
ALL PRODUCT FLOWS
ONE PRODUCT FLOW
 BEATING THE COMPETITION

THE SOLUTION FOR HYPER

COMPETITION IS TRADE
INTELLIGENCE
ENGLISH DRY FOOD IMPORTER / WHOLESALER
COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE
AGROFRUT BILL OF LADING
REPORT OF REFUSAL OF IMPORT

IMPORT REFUSAL
REPORT

IMPORT REFUSAL
REPORT
“PESTICIDES”
 ART OF FOREIGN TRADE

INTELLIGENCE ART OF STRATEGY

EXPORTING

COMMUNICATION
 THE TOOLS OF EXPORT MARKETING
INDIRECT TOOLS
• ADVERTISING, (INTERNET AND
TRADITIONAL),
• WEB SITE, E CATALOG,
• SOCIAL MEDIA- BLOGS-FORUMS-
LINKEDINE
• MEMBERSHIP TO BUSINESS SITES,
• DIGITAL AND VIRTUAL FAIRS
• SOCIAL ASSOCIATION MEMBERSHIP,
• PARTICIPATION IN SECTOR MEETINGS
• ARTICLES AND SCIENTIFIC MEETINGS
• SECTORAL GUIDANCE MEMBERSHIP.
• COMPANY -BUSINESS TO BUSINESS
(B2B)
DIRECT TOOLS
• ELECTRONIC MAIL,
• VISUAL ELECTRONIC
COMMUNICATION TOOLS
(SKYPE etc.),
• TELEPHONE,
• FAX,
• CATALOG SENDING,
• EXHIBITION
PARTICIPATION,
• VISIT TO OBJECTIVE
POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS,
• OPENING THE OFFICE IN
THE TARGET COUNTRIES,
• ACTIVE COMMUNICATION
WITH SUBSCRIBERS AND
BUYERS TO BUS SITES.
 TARGET CUSTOMERS
a. Importer
b. Agent
c. Distributor
d. Wholesaler-to be converted to importer-
e. Retailer -to be converted to importer-
f. Sub contract
g. Buying cooperatives
h. Tenders
i. Licence agreement
j. Joint venture
k. Opening an office or magazine
 DETERMINATION OF TARGET
MARKET, INTELLIGENCE IN TARGET
MARKET

GOAL: SUSTAINABLE PROFITABLE

EXPORT
• GROWING MARKETS
• PROFITABLE MARKETS
• MARKETS IN WHICH WE CAN COMPETE
• EASY ENTERANCE MARKETS
DETERMINING THE TARGET
MARKET MAIN FORCES
 DETERMINING THE TARGET
MARKET MAIN FORCES
We have our own competitive power "(which is also in
relation to the competition power of our country),"
Competitiveness of the rivalries in the target market ".
"The effects of the growth of the import market". These are
the effects on us and the opponents. And analyzing all
these "the company's subjective and specific
understanding, goals and approaches". These were
identified as the main determining forces on the target
market choice. This simple scheme demonstrates our basic
approach to target market theory.
DETERMINING THE TARGET
MARKET MAIN FORCES
 APPLICATION OF DETERMINING
TARGET MARKET
• Determining the HS CODE
• Growing markets in the
world
• Competitors
• Markets with growth
tendancy
MATRIX of TARGET MARKET
CLASSY MATRIX
AHE MATRIX
TARGET MARKET REPORT
PROCEDURES TO BE APPLIED
READY MADE MARKET REASERCH
REPORTS INCLUDING COMPETITORS
 ART OF FOREIGN TRADE

INTELLIGENCE ART OF STRATEGY

EXPORTING

COMMUNICATION
 ART OF FOREIGN TRADE
• THE STRATEGY CAN NOT BE ESTABLISHED
WITHOUT TRADE INTELLIGENCE
• WITHOUT STRATEGY THERE IS NO
INTELLIGENCE
• RESULTS ARE ACHIEVED THROUGH
COMMUNICATION
• THE ART OF EXPORTING IS THE SUM OF
THESE ISSUES
• TRADE INTELLIGENCE IS THE KEY TO
SUSTAINABLE PROFITABILITY