Presentation On,

Changing Pattern of Economic Interactions of Bangladesh

with Rest of the World during Covid-19

Department of International Business

Course No. # EIB-541/519
Course Name # International Economics
Presentated To,
Hazera-Tun-Nessa
Assistant Professor, Department of International Business
University of Dhaka

Presentated By,
Group No. # 03
Student ID Student Name

801827007 Mohammad Asaduzzaman

801827012 Abdulla All Mehedi
801827025 Md. Tanjil Islam
801827027 Hasan Mahammud Nayeem
801928001 Muhammad Faruk Al Muzahid
801928002 Muhammad Mortuza Morshed
Summary of the Presentation
1. Background
2. COVID – 19 Brief History / Timeline in Bangladesh
3. COVID – 19 Brief History / Timeline in the World
4. Consequences of /Impacts in the whole World
5. Case and Impact of COVID - 19 in Bangladesh
>> Readymade Garments and Remittances
>> Aviation and Travel Agencies Business
>> Foreign backed development projects and FDI
>> Export
>> Import

6. Conclusion
1. Background
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a contagious disease caused by severe acute
respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The first case was identified in
Wuhan, China in December 2019.

Symptoms Fever, cough, fatigue, shortness of breath, loss of taste or smell;

sometimes no symptoms at all
Prevention Hand Washing, face coverings, Quarantine, Social Distancing
Symptomatic treatment, supportive care, or supportive therapy [No
Treatment Specific Treatment]
No Proven Vaccine. [Under Development]
Vaccine
In the absence of a Vaccine or effective Treatment, government worldwide implemented
large-scale containment measures such as limiting economic activities to the essential.
Coupled with the social distancing measures taken by the citizens to avoid contagion
from the virus and economic shutdown measures, these actions have resulted in huge
short-term economic losses.
The impact of COVID-19 on the economy of Bangladesh has been transmitting through
two main channels:
(i) Depressed domestic demand and supply disruptions in the local economy
(ii) Slowdown in global economic activities affecting global trade and international
financial flows

Globalization has brought great benefits to the apparel industry as international fashion
company’s farm out production to cost-effective centers for manufacturing. By carefully
orchestrating a supply chain that spans multiple countries, they are still able to deliver
products to stores in time. COVID-19 has exposed the vulnerability of these cross-
country supply chains, with negative consequences for Bangladesh. There are other
global impacts that will affect the Bangladesh economy as well as local impacts on
demand and supply in-country. This paper aims to shed light on these global and local
economic impacts of COVID-19.
2. COVID – 19 Brief History / Timeline in Bangladesh
The first case was identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019.
Bangladesh took first step on 22 January, the authorities at the Dhaka airport put the
airports on alert by screening travelers from China.

On 1st February, a special flight from Bangladesh evacuated 312 Bangladeshi citizens
stranded in Wuhan. The evacuees were quarantined for 14 days at the Ashkona Hajj
Camp in Dhaka and other locations. None of them tested positive for the coronavirus.

On 8 March, The first three coronavirus cases were confirmed. The IEDCR director Prof.
Meerjady Sabrina Flora announced at a press conference that 2 men (from Narayangonj)
and 1 woman (From Madaripur) had tested positive for COVID-19. The patients were
aged between 20 and 35. Of them, two men were Italy returnees and the woman was a
family member of one of these two. IEDCR launched three hotlines to call for
information about coronavirus. Approximately about 111 tests were conducted in
Bangladesh.
On the same day, Bangladesh decided not to hold the planned grand inauguration
ceremony of the founding president Sheikh Mujibur Rahman's birth centenary
celebration program on 17 March to avoid public gatherings.

Gradually the numbers increased day by day. The below table shows the actual data
according to Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins
University:

Covid-19 Time line in Bangladesh

Month New Cases Total Cases New Death Total death
March 51 51 5 5
April 7616 7667 163 168
May 39486 47153 482 650
June 98330 145483 1197 1847
July 92178 237661 1264 3111
August 75335 312996 1170 4281
September 50483 363479 970 5251
October 44205 407684 672 5923
November 57248 462407 721 6644
3. COVID – 19 Brief History / Timeline in the World
On Dec. 31, 2019, Chinese authorities alerted the World Health Organization of
pneumonia cases in Wuhan City, Hubei province, China, with an unknown cause. What
started as a mystery disease was first referred to as 2019-nCoV and then named
COVID-19.
The timeline below tracks the development of the outbreak as it unfolds. Total cases as
of Dec. 1: 63,396,852 and 1,471,152 deaths.
Covid-19 Time line in the world
Month New Cases Total Cases New Death Total death
January 9372 9927 196 213
February 76087 86014 2729 2942
March 789914 875928 41446 44388
April 2397746 3273674 192310 236698
May 2909063 6182737 137947 374645
June 4259505 10442242 133780 508425
July 7143990 17586232 166962 675387
August 7884949 25471181 175272 850659
September 8486703 33957884 163906 1014565
October 12112579 46070463 181145 1195710
November 17166341 63236804 272277 1467987
4. Consequences of / Impacts in the whole World
The COVID-19 pandemic is causing an unprecedented disruption to the global economy.
The resultant socio-economic impact is being transmitted through different channels. The
International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the pandemic might push the global
economy into the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s, and far worse
than the one triggered by the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-09, with the poorest
countries being the hardest hit. As per IMF projections, the global economy would
contract by 3.0 per cent in 2020, while the World Bank thinks the global economy will
decline by 2.1-3.9%. Using simulations from a general equilibrium modeling exercise,
the Asian Development Bank (ADB) derives that the global economy could lose between
$5.8 trillion and $8.8 trillion – equivalent to 6.4 per cent to 9.7 per cent of the global
gross domestic product (GDP)

Global trade contracted by 3.0 per cent in the first quarter of 2020. According to the
UNCTAD, the downturn would accelerate in the second quarter and so the world trade
would decline by 27 per cent. This is echoed by the World Trade Organization (WTO),
which has projected that the world merchandise trade would shrink between 13 and 32
per cent in 2020.
The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to cause huge job losses for migrant workers and
thus affect remittance flows. According to the Institute for Public Policy Research,
migrant workers are particularly likely to work in accommodation and food services,
one of the most affected sectors in the COVID crisis. The World Bank projections found
that global remittance flows would decline sharply by 20 per cent in 2020. Europe and
Central Asia will experience the largest fall of 27.5 per cent, followed by Sub-Saharan
Africa (23.1 per cent), South Asia (22.1 per cent), the Middle East and North Africa
(19.6 per cent), Latin America and the Caribbean (19.3 per cent), and East Asia and the
Pacific (13 per cent).
Worldwide FDI flow is expected to drop by about 35 per cent due to travel bans,
disruption of international trade, and wealth effects of declines in the stock prices of
multinational companies.
5. Case and Impact of COVID - 19 in Bangladesh
Few months ago, people of Bangladesh were living peacefully, travelling freely, doing
their jobs perfectly; the economic growth projections were cheery and the financial
market were tolerable. But the novel coronavirus or Covid-19 has brought a dramatic
slowdown in the overall life style and economy of the world where Bangladesh became a
victim too. The exponential spread of the virus and its deadly effect made it clear that it
has the potential to wreck the economy. 

Since this virus has already attacked Bangladesh, questions may arise whether this will
affect us economically. The answer is very simple. When giant economies like US,
China, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, and Italy are affected, the rest of the world will
not be spared from the blow as these economies carry almost 60% of world supply and
demand in terms of GDP, 65% of world manufacturing and 41% of manufacturing
exports, as per a report of the World Trade Organization published in 2020.

Hence, Bangladesh will face an economic shock by declining export and tourism revenue
in a large-scale due to restricted export policies and travel bans. 
 Readymade Garments and Remittances
Globalization has brought incredible benefits to Bangladesh’s readymade garments
(RMG) industry as worldwide design companies consider Bangladesh as cost-effective
centers. But Covid-19 has introduced the vulnerability of Bangladesh RMG. The
International Monetary Fund (IMF) considers that the recession will be worse, but more
short-lived than the global financial crisis of 2008. The duration matters greatly for
Bangladesh, because its economic fate is closely tied to the fate of countries that enable
ready-made garments (RMG) and remittance.
The foreign buyers of Bangladesh RMG are closing their shops and outlays. H&M,
GAP, Zara, Marks & Spencer and Primark are all major buyers of Bangladesh RMG.
But, many of them have cancelled their work order. H&M, one of the biggest buyers of
Bangladeshi readymade garments has had to “temporarily delay new orders as well as
assess potential changes”. BGMEA President Ms. Rubana Huq expressed that the whole
effect of cancellations will sum of US$1.5 billion, which is generally 50% of our
normal average export income in a month. On the other hand, more than a million of
Bangladeshi workers have been repatriated from different parts of the world.
 Aviation and Travel Agencies Business

At the outbreak of the pandemic in Bangladesh, Aviation and the travel sectors are
seriously affected. The cancellation of the ticket by the passengers and the restrictions
imposed by government made these sectors vulnerable. Some of the new travel agents
and companies are struggling to sustain due to the COVID-19. Though the authority has
allowed flight schedule and is encouraging tourists to visit with health instructions, but
the situation yet to stable. This is an adverse impact on Bangladesh economy.
 Foreign backed development projects and FDI

The government of Bangladesh is implementing several fast-track mega projects, half of

those being progressed by the Chinese funds and technical assistance. Including the
much-hyped Padma Bridge, over 13,000 Chinese citizens like engineers, geologists, and
technical officials are involved with these projects. If the covid-19 outbreak remained
uncontrolled, it is feared that implementation of the projects might get slowed down thus
pushing up the project costs. The government expect a decline in capital inflows for
2020-21: FDI will slow and the ability to implement infrastructure projects of the
government will decline. Private sector borrowing from abroad will decline. The
government’s analysis as presented in the budget documents for fiscal year 2020-21
indicates the economy is expected to fully recover in 2020-21 returning to a high growth
rate. 
 Export
Bangladesh experienced about 18.30% negative growth in her export in March 2020.
The export earnings of Bangladesh were $3.34 billion in March 2019. But at the same
time in 2020, it turned down to $2.73 billion.
The overall export fell by 6.24% in fiscal year 2019-2020 than the previous year. All the
major sectors including RMGs and manpower experienced the negative impact of their
export earnings. RMGs earned $1.85 billion less in 2020 than the year 2019.
The woven and knitwear exports fetched $13.15 billion and $12.80 billion respectively
in July-March period of last fiscal year. Pharmaceuticals exports also grew by 6.50 per
cent to $106.22 million. Agro-products, like - vegetables, fruits and spices, amount
$721.98 million, slightly down from $722.73 million. Frozen and live fish exports got
$402.6 million in the first eight months of this fiscal year, registering a negative growth
of 3.91 per cent. Exports from plastic products also witnessed a negative growth of 4.57
per cent to $83.11 million during July-March period of FY 2019-20. Ceramic products
exports during the period decreased by 58.56 per cent to $24.92 million from $60.13
million. The country brought in $40.53 billion by exporting goods during last fiscal year,
of which about $34.13 billion came from textiles and clothing alone.
 Import
About 40 percent of capital machinery and spare parts for the textile and garment
industry come from China. In the bilateral trade, there is already a temporary impact as
the communication between the two countries is reduced, so the movement of goods
also. Moreover, as there are closures in stores and factories over the fear of virus spread,
the supply chain of industrial materials, especially apparel, leather and other
manufacturing sectors, will see the gap. Bangladesh’s textile and apparel sector is highly
dependent on China. If the supply chain does not work properly it can be a disaster with
a delay in shipment. Some factories are already struggling to run properly. As the supply
of goods may fall due to disruption in the supply chain, the business of every need will
likely to hit. The supply chain with other countries also getting limited due to travel
restriction for COVID19 epidemic and thus create a large reduction of import in
Bangladesh after the crisis.
6. Conclusion
Bangladeshi function, bringing the role of the Bangladesh economy to the fore.
Addressing these challenges has prompted policy makers to rethink how to better
protect citizens Economical growth and deliver necessary services in a more efficient
manner. The crisis accelerated the emergence and increased visibility of inspiring social
economy and social innovation initiatives, showcasing their positive contributions in
empowering people, reinforcing place-based dynamics and reshaping enterprises and
territories.

The current situation offers momentum to take bold, courageous decisions to build a
more sustainable and inclusive future. The COVID-19 crisis calls for a rethinking of the
balance of the objectives of efficiency and resilience in different areas of economic and
social systems. Post-crisis efforts can be turned into an opportunity to improve people’s
lives and stimulate innovation. The social economy can inspire responsible practices
among mainstream economic players, showing that it is possible to reconcile economic
objectives with environmental and social requirements. The social economy provides a
credible and value-driven path to transition towards more inclusive, sustainable and
resilient systems in a post COVID-19 world.
A mix of policy measures is needed to help social economy organizations’ survive in the
short term and help shape our societies in a more sustainable and inclusive way for the
future. Governments can use this opportunity to develop a shared vision of their future
to “build back better”, and social economy actors should have a seat at the table. An
action plan to implement that vision would help set a roadmap to which social economy
organization’s can actively contribute. Policies which promote social innovation and co-
operation can assist social economy innovations to scale up impact. To achieve this,
social economy organizations will require continued and diversified financial resources,
and support to professionalism as well as become digitally savvy in exploiting relevant
tools (open source, co-operative platforms). Finally, the development of shared data and
information on impact will help keep track of this progress and redirect efforts towards
areas with the most fruitful results.
THANK YOU …..