Professional Documents
Culture Documents
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Basic Bond Valuation Example (cont.)
We can find the intrinsic value of these cash flows by finding the
present value of the interest payments and then adding the present
value of the face value:
1
1 6
1 0 . 07
1
1 k N 1
FV 2 1000
VB Pmt 50
d
kd 1 k d
N
0.07 1 0.07
2 2
Note that the first term is the present value of an annuity, and the
second is the present value of a lump sum
Do the math, and you’ll find that the bond is worth $1,079.93. Note
that this value must decline until it reaches $1,000 at maturity.
Bond Valuation Notes
P1 P0 Interest earned
So, if we take the period zero value forward one period,
you will get the value of the bond at the next period
including the interest earned over the period.
Valuing Bonds Between Coupon Dates (cont.)
Now, suppose that only half of the period has gone by.
If we use the same logic, the total price of the bond
(including accrued interest) is:
1079.931.035
0.5
1098.66
Now, to get the quoted price we merely subtract the
accrued interest:
QP 1098.66 25 1073.66
If you bought the bond, you’d get quoted $1,073.66 but
you’d also have to pay $25 in accrued interest for a total
of $1,098.66.
Bond Return Measures
The yield to maturity gives the exact return that you will
actually earn under the following conditions:
You purchase the bond at today’s price
You hold the bond to maturity
You reinvest all interest payments at the same YTM
The last condition is the most difficult to achieve with
interest rates changing all the time. So, YTM is just an
estimate of your actual return.
However, the YTM does take into account the increase
or decrease in the price of the bond (capital gain or loss)
over the life of the bond.
The Yield to Maturity (cont.)
Bonds are generally less risky than stocks, but they do suffer from
several types of risk:
Credit risk – Risk of default. (See ratings on next slide)
Price risk – Risk of unexpected changes in rates, causing a capital loss.
Reinvestment risk – Risk that rates will fall and you will reinvest at a
lower rate.
Purchasing power risk – Risk that inflation will be higher than
expected.
Call risk – Risk that the bond will be called because of lower rates.
Liquidity risk – The risk that you will not be able to sell the bond at a
price near its full value.
Foreign exchange risk – Risk that a foreign currency will decline in
value, causing a decline in the value of your interest payments and
principal.
Bond Ratings
C - - - - May be in Default
- - DDD D - Default
- - DD - DD
- D D - -
- - - - DP
Source: http://www.bondsonline.com/asp/research/bondratings.asp
Bond Ratings (cont.)
Note from this and the next slide, that there is virtually no risk of default
within 1 year, and very little over longer periods, if you invest in investment
grade securities.
One you go below investment grade, however, the risk of default rises
dramatically.
Bond Ratings (cont.)
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC
Default Rate 0.52% 1.31% 2.32% 6.64% 19.52% 35.76% 54.38%
S&P Bond Rating
Bond Ratings (cont.)
Moody's
38% Source: Wall Street Journal, 6 January 2003, p. C1 and M oody's
Corp. Bond Spreads Over Treasuries
This table Corporate (Industrials) Spreads over Treasuries (in basis points)
demonstrates that bond Rating
Aaa/AAA
1 yr
35
2 yr
40
3 yr
45
5 yr
55
7 yr
69
10 yr
81
30 yr
92
yields (spreads over Aa1/AA+
Aa2/AA
40
45
45
55
55
60
65
70
79
85
91
101
102
112
equivalent Treasuries) Aa3/AA-
A1/A+
50
60
60
70
65
85
80
100
95
116
111
132
123
148
increase as credit A2/A
A3/A-
70
80
80
95
100
110
115
125
136
152
155
170
171
193