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Financial Statement Analysis: K R Subramanyam John J Wild
Financial Statement Analysis: K R Subramanyam John J Wild
Statement
Analysis
K R Subramanyam
John J Wild
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2009 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
9-2
Prospective Analysis
9
CHAPTER
9-3
Prospective Analysis
Importance
Security Valuation - free cash flow and residual
income models require estimates of future financial
statements.
Steps:
6. Assume initial long-term debt balance is equal to the prior
period long-term debt less current maturities from Step 4.
7. Assume other long-term obligations are equal to the prior
year’s balance unless they have exhibited noticeable trends.
8. Assume initial estimate of common stock is equal to the prior
year’s balance
9. Assume retained earnings are equal to the prior year’s
balance plus (minus) net profit (loss) and less expected
dividends.
10. Assume other equity accounts are equal to the prior year’s
balance unless they have exhibited noticeable trends.
9-11
Selected Ratios
Accounts receivable turnover rate.................................... 9.240 9.094 6.722
Inventory turnover rate.....................................................5.840 6.266 5.357
Accounts payable turnover rate ....................................... 5.441 5.728 5.444
Accrued expenses turnover rate ....................................... 28.683 32.628 24.214
Taxes payable/Tax expense...............................................
26.527% 122.663% 37.485%
Dividends per share .........................................................
$ 0.310 $ 0.260 $ 0.240
Capital expenditures (CAPEX)—in millions ...................... 3,012 2,671 3,189
CAPEX/Sales ....................................................................
6.431% 6.356% 8.524%
9-12
where BVt is book value at the end of period t, RIt + n is residual income in
period t + n, and k is cost of capital (see Chapter 1). Residual income at
time t is defined as comprehensive net income minus a charge on
beginning book value, that is, RIt = NIt - (k x BVt - 1).
9-18
Reversion of ROE
9-25