CAPACITY BUILDING TRAINING

PROGRAMME FOR AEE’S 0F

2013 BATCH

HYDROLOGY – RIVEER GODAVARI

@ DUMMUGUDEM ANICUT

PRESENTATION ON
GUMBLE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Presentation By
Routhu Satyanarayana
 Gumble’s Probability Distribution Method For Hydrology
Statistical Probability Distribution
Probability Distribution
 In statistics, a probability distribution gives either the probability of each value of a
random variable (when the variable is discrete).
 Or the probability of the value falling within a particular interval (when the variable is
continuous).
 The probability distribution describes the range of possible values that a random
variable can attain and the probability that the value of the random variable is within
any (measurable) subset of that range.
 A probability distribution gives important information about the data, how the values
are changing, whether they are bunched together or spread out, and whether they
are symmetrically disposed on the X-axis or not.
 Distribution also tells the relative frequency or proportion of various X values in the
population in the same way that a histogram gives information about a sample.
 Gumble’s Probability Distribution Method For Hydrology
Statistical Probability Distribution
Gumble’s Probability Distribution
 The importance of the Gumbel distribution in practice is due to its extreme value
behaviour.
 It is applied to describe extreme wind speeds, sea wave heights, floods, rainfall, age at
death, minimum temperature, rainfall during droughts, electrical strength of
materials, air pollution problems, geological problems, naval engineering etc..
 Estimation of Peak Flood Discharge & probabilistic flood for a desired return period is
a pre-requisite for planning, design and management of hydraulic structures like
barrages, dams, spillways, bridges etc..
 Based on the past historic data set of observed flood discharge, Gumbel’s distribution
is suitable for predicting the expected flood flows in the river as also for obtaining the
peak flood values for different Return Periods.
 Gumble’s Probability Distribution Method For Hydrology
Hydrology - Godavari River @ Dummugudem Anicut
Case Study – Computation of Return Period Flood In Godavari @ Dummugudem
GODAVARI BASIN

 Originates At Triambakeshwar & Empties Into Bay Of Bengal Below Rajhamundry

After Traversing For 1261 Kms.
 Largest River In South India & Second Largest In India.

State Area in Sq. kms Percentage Area

Maharashtra 1,52,199 48.65 %
Andhra Pradesh(combined) 73,201 23.40 %
Chattisgarh 39,087 12.49 %
Madhya Pradesh 26,168 8.63 %
Orissa 17,752 5.67 %
Karnataka 4,405 1.41 %
TOTAL 3,12,813 100.00 %
Gumble’s Probability Distribution Method For Hydrology
Hydrology - Godavari River @ Dummugudem Anicut

MADHYA PRADESH
N

N
KANHA
PRANHITA (G-9)

R
VE
RI
BAGH RIVER

A
NG
GA
N
AI
WARDHA (G-8)

W
WARDHA RIVER

WUNNA
KOTHANI RIVER
ARAN
GO
DA
VA MAHARASHTRA
RI
RIV
ER
PENGANGA RIVER
UPPER GODAVARI (G-1) PURNA (G-3) PENGANGA (G-7) INDRAVATI (G-11)
PU
PRAVARA RIVER R NA CHHATTISGARH
RIV
PRAVARA (G-2) E R
R NIBRA RIVER
A RIVE SUD
MUL

R
GO D HA

A RIVE
DA RIV INDRAVATI RIVER
VA ER
RI
R IVE ORISSA

CH
PRANHIT
R

IN

NANDIRAJ RIVER
MIDDLE

TA
GODAVARI (G-5)

RI
VE
R
M IV

MANER RIVER
AN ER
R

TALPERU
JI
RA

MANJIRA (G-4)
SABARI (G-12)
MANER (G-6)
HA
LD LOWER
ANDHRA PRADESH

ER
IR
KARNATAKA IVE GODAVARI (G-10)

IV
R

R
R
IVE

RI
M
UR

UR

BE
ER
SIL

RE

SA
DU
RU
LE

R.
MU
PA

State Wise Distribution

 Gumble’s Probability Distribution Method For Hydrology
Hydrology - Godavari River @ Dummugudem Anicut
GODAVARI SUB-BASINS
Sub Basin Identification Catchment (Sq Km)
Upper Godavari G–1 33502
Pravara G–2 6537
Purna G–3 15579
Manjira G–4 30881
Middle Godavari G–5 17189
Manair G -6 13106
Pen Ganga G -7 23854
Wardha G -8 24016
Pranhita G -9 61819
Lower Godavari* G - 10 24963
Indravati G - 11 40939
Sabari G - 12 20427
3,12,813
Gumble’s Probability Distribution Method For Hydrology
Hydrology - Godavari River @ Dummugudem Anicut

GODAVARI BASIN - Major Tributaries

Percentage Contribution to
Tributary
Discharge Remarks

Pranahitha 40 %

Indravathi 20 %

Sabari 10 % Downstream of G10

Manjira 6%
 Gumble’s Probability Distribution Method For Hydrology
Hydrology - Godavari River @ Dummugudem Anicut
HYDROLOGY

 Two Operating Gauge And Discharge (G&d) Stations, Maintained By Central Water
Commission On Godavari River In Lower Godavari Sub-basin (G10)

Catchment Area Discharge Data

Sl. No. Name of Station
(Sq. Km.) Period

1. Perur 2,68,200 1965-66

2. Polavaram 3,07,800 1965-66

 Perur G&D Station Used For Study Purpose

 Gumble’s Probability Distribution Method For Hydrology
Hydrology - Godavari River @ Dummugudem Anicut
HYDROLOGY

 Daily Discharge Data From 1968-69 To 2005-06 Used For Calculating Discharges
At Dummugudem
 No Significant Loss Of Water Between Perur & Dummugudem
 Gumbels Flood Probability Analysis Adopted For Estimating Maximum
Discharge For Various Return Period Floods

Drainage Areas For Flood Discharge

Drainage Area at Drainage Area at Drainage Area Ration /

Perur Dummugudem (Km2) Factor for Determining
(Km2) Flows at Dummugudem

2,68,200 2,81,000 1.048

Gumble’s Probability Distribution Method For Hydrology
Hydrology - Godavari River @ Dummugudem Anicut

Hydraulic Particulars of Dummugudem

Length Main Anicut

Branch Anicut

Length 1555.32 m 62.80 m

Crest Level +49.38 m & +49.68 m +49.07 m

TBL/GL + 54.21 m + 60.17 m

30.00 Lakh C/S + 55.65 m at 36.00 L C/S + 28.92 m at
1986 Flood
Bhadrahalam Polavaram
 Gumble’s Probability Distribution Method For Hydrology
Hydrology - Godavari River @ Dummugudem Anicut

HYDROLOGY – Design Flood

 For Purpose Of Design Items Other Than Free Board

 Based On IS : 6966 – 1989, Hydraulic Design Of Barrages & Weirs & IS : 5477

(Part – 4) :1971, A Design Flood With Frequency Of 1 In 100 Year Return

Period Is Selected.

 For Free Board Purpose

 Based On IS : 5477 (Part – 4) :1971, A Design Flood With Frequency Of 1 In

500 Year Return Period Is Selected.

 OBSERVED MAXIMUM YEARLY DISCHARGES
Max Flood
S.N. Year
(cumec) x
1 1968 21687
2 1969 35292
3 1970 45576
4 1971 18865
5 1972 23952
6 1973 34810
7 1974 16301
8 1975 36566
9 1976 42119
10 1977 29158
11 1978 41595
12 1979 39185
13 1980 27743
14 1981 53954
15 1982 12310
16 1983 36408
17 1984 15490
18 1985 13606
19 1986 81723
20 1987 12373
21 1988 37823
22 1989 27450
23 1990 67578
24 1991 25604
25 1992 32898
26 1993 16856
27 1994 43001
28 1995 44219
29 1996 9482
30 1997 12939
31 1998 18997
32 1999 19317
33 2000 42896
34 2001 38020
35 2002 25711
36 2003 21076
37 2004 17545
38 2005 25602
Total 1165726.19
Average 30677.00

    Maximum Value 81722.60cumecs

    Minimum Value 9481.92cumecs

Gumble’s Probability Distribution Method For Hydrology
Hydrology - Godavari River @ Dummugudem Anicut
HYDROLOGY – Result of Studies
Abstract Of Flood Frequency By Gumbel Method

Flood Return Year Estimated Flood (m3/s)

1 in 2 years 28,262
1 in 10 years 54,124
1 in 25 years 67,140
1 in 50 years 76,796
1 in 100 years 86,381
1 in 200 years 95,931
1 in 500 years 1,08,531
 Gumble’s Probability Distribution Method For Hydrology
Hydrology - Godavari River @ Dummugudem Anicut

Annual Flood Series At Dummugudem Site

90000
80000
70000
Discharge (m3/s)

60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1974

1976

1978

1980

1986

1988

1990

1992

2000

2002

2004
1968

1970

1972

1982

1984

1994

1996

1998
Year
Gumble’s Probability Distribution Method For Hydrology
Hydrology - Godavari River @ Dummugudem Anicut
Randomness Check ( √ ) = P - E(p )
√ var (p )
p = number of turning points in annual maximum series (AMS)
= number of peaks + number of troughs = 24
N = No. of data points in a series = 38
E(p) = 2/3 x (N-2) = 24.00
Var (p) = (16 N - 29) / 90 = 6.43
If [ √ ] < 1.96, series is random at 5% significance level = -9.46 < 1.96
Hence, the series is random at significance level of 5%.

Kendall's Rank Correlation Trend Test

Stationary Check
Kandall's Rank correlation test
T
√ = = -0.792
√ var (T)
T = [4P / {N*(N-1)}] - 1 = -0.0896
and Var (T) = {2(2N+5)} / {9N(N-1)} = 0.0128
where P = total number of disrete observations in a series which are exceeded by
320.00
subsequent observations. Refer Annexure C.2.A.1
If [√ ] < - 1.96 there is a falling trend in data at 5% significance level
[√ ] > + 1.96 there is a rising trend in data at 5% significance level
[√ ] < 1.96 there is no trend in data at 5% significance level

Since [√ ] is < 1.96 & > - 1.96, there is no trend in data at 5% significance level.
Gumble’s Probability Distribution Method For Hydrology
Hydrology - Godavari River @ Dummugudem Anicut
Detection of high outliers

X H = X + Kn sy = 5.017
X H = high outlier in log units
X = mean of log series = 4.43
sy = standard deviation of log series = 0.22
Kn = K values for given sample size n (Annex C.2.A.2) = 2.661

Max Flood 2 2
S.N. Year x-x (x - x) log x log (x - x) log (x - x)
(cumec) x
1 1968 21686.98 -8990.03 80820610.15 4.336 -0.10 0.00961
2 1969 35292.01 4615.00 21298248.76 4.548 0.11 0.01287
3 1970 45576.06 14899.06 221981922.03 4.659 0.22 0.05040
4 1971 18864.61 -11812.39 139532593.78 4.276 -0.16 0.02515
5 1972 23952.16 -6724.85 45223549.34 4.379 -0.05 0.00301
6 1973 34810.26 4133.26 17083824.61 4.542 0.11 0.01155
7 1974 16301.46 -14375.55 206656362.73 4.212 -0.22 0.04929
8 1975 36565.62 5888.62 34675819.43 4.563 0.13 0.01660
31 1998 18997.36 -11679.64 136414100.42 4.279 -0.16 0.02419
32 1999 19316.92 -11360.09 129051608.52 4.286 -0.15 0.02199
33 2000 42896.33 12219.33 149312026.91 4.632 0.20 0.03928
34 2001 38019.61 7342.60 53913802.63 4.580 0.15 0.02125
35 2002 25710.87 -4966.13 24662482.12 4.410 -0.02 0.00058
36 2003 21076.15 -9600.85 92176366.52 4.324 -0.11 0.01220
37 2004 17544.79 -13132.21 172454977.45 4.244 -0.19 0.03613
38 2005 25602.33 -5074.68 25752355.67 4.408 -0.03 0.00067
Total 1165726.19 - 9003189504.70 168.50 - 1.77
Average 30677.00 - - 4.43 - -
X H = high outlier in cumecs = 104005.3

Higher outlier threshold XH 104005.3 > 81722.6 (highest value in series)

C2.2.3.2 Detection of low outliers

X L = X - Kn sy = 3.85
X L = low outlier threshold in log units
X L = low outlier in cumecs = 7102.5
Low outlier threshold XL 7102.5 < 9481.92 (lowest value in series)
 Gumble’s Probability Distribution Method For Hydrology
Hydrology - Godavari River @ Dummugudem Anicut
Gumbel Distribution And Flood Frequency Study

XT = X + K бn-1

a XT = flood of T year frequency

b X = mean of the series of size N

c K : frequency factor : (y T - y n) / Sn

y T : reduced variate, a function of T given by : -[ln ln (T/(T-1))]

y T : reduced variate, a function of T given by : - {0.834 + 2.303 log log T/T-1}
y n : reduced mean, a function of sample size N and is given in Annexure 6.C
Sn : reduced standard deviation, a function of sample size N and is given in Annexure 6.D

d бn-1 = standard deviation of the series

N 1/2

бn-1 = _____
1
∑ (x i - x)2
N- 1
i=1

Reference Method
To estimate the flood magnitude corresponding to a given return based on an annual flood series.

a. Assemble the discharge data and note tha sample size N. Here the annual flood value is the
variate X. Find x and бn-1 for the given data.

b. Calculate K as given below:

b1. Using Annexure C.2.A.3 & C.2.A.4 determine yn and Sn appropriate to given N.
b2. Find y T for a given T from equation.
Gumble’s Probability Distribution Method For Hydrology
Hydrology - Godavari River @ Dummugudem Anicut
c. Determine the required xT from formula.

Max Flood TP 2
S.N. Year (x - x)
(cumec) x (N+1)/m
1 1986 81722.60 39.00 2605652278
2 1990 67578.30 19.50 1361705565
3 1981 53953.68 13.00 541803435
4 1970 45576.06 9.75 221981922
5 1995 44219.26 7.80 183392620
6 1994 43000.75 6.50 151874772
7 2000 42896.33 5.57 149312027
13 1975 36565.62 3.00 34675819
29 1971 18864.61 1.34 139532594
30 2004 17544.79 1.30 172454977
31 1993 16855.81 1.26 191025453
32 1974 16301.46 1.22 206656363
33 1984 15489.68 1.18 230654846
34 1985 13605.55 1.15 291434408
35 1997 12939.41 1.11 314622241
36 1987 12372.59 1.08 335051555
37 1982 12310.25 1.05 337337623
38 1996 9481.92 1.03 449231772
Total 1165726.2 - 9003189505
Average 30677.00 - -

N= 38 years
x= 30677.00 m3/sec
бn-1 = 15599.02 m3/sec

From C.2.A.3 and C.2.A.4, for N = 38years yn = 0.5424

and Sn = 1.1363
Gumble’s Probability Distribution Method For Hydrology
Hydrology - Godavari River @ Dummugudem Anicut

Return Period Flood by Gumbel Method

Return yT XT
S.N. K
Period (T)

1 2 0.367 -0.155 28262

2 10 2.250 1.503 54124
3 25 3.199 2.338 67140
4 50 3.902 2.957 76796
5 100 4.600 3.571 86381
6 200 5.296 4.183 95931
7 500 6.214 4.991 108531
 Gumble’s Probability Distribution Method For Hydrology
Hydrology - Godavari River @ Dummugudem Anicut
HYDROLOGY – Result of Studies

90000
FLOOD PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

80000

Gumble Values
70000
Worked Out Values At Dummugudem
60000

50000

40000
Discharge (m3/s)

30000

20000

10000

0
1 10 100
Recurrence Interval (Years)
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