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Geomagnetic field study in Romanian stations has started with irregular measurements, late XIX -th
century. In 1943, the foundation of SNGO marks the beginning of a new era in the systematic study of
geomagnetic field by a continuous registration of its variations and by carrying out standard absolute
measurements in a fundamental station. Observatory location was thoroughly established, so that meets the
geomorphological and technological criteria. SNGO is located in Căldăruşani - Surlari astro-geodetic polygon,
in an area without magnetic field anomalies or significant local heterogeneity of electrical conductivity in the
basement and a sufficient distance from major industrial sources of disturbance.
The Observatory covers an area of 3.56 hectares and comprises seven buildings and underground
laboratory for geomagnetic sensors. Inside are installed specialized equipment’s to multiparametric monitoring
of fields of earth. These buildings were made during 1943-1969. The underground laboratory and the main
buildings were renovated and modernized in 2006-2008. The design of the special geomagnetic recording
laboratories was made after some well verified. Inside laboratories were built 18 specially designed pillars
embedded deep in the ground, which are mounted high-resolution sensors.
General view in SNGO The first magnetogram in October 16, 1943
in SNGO
Y, which means:
If d=0: yt = Yt
If d=1: yt = Yt - Yt-1
If d=2: yt = (Yt - Yt-1) - (Yt-1 - Yt-2) = Yt - 2Yt-1+ Yt-2
The second difference of Y (the d=2 case) is not the difference from 2 periods ago. Rather, it
is the first-difference-of-the-first difference, which is the discrete analogue of a second
derivative, i.e., the local acceleration of the series rather than its local trend.
STSFMs_ARIMA.AR = [];
STSFMs_ARIMA.MA = [];
Lags = num2cell(nan(1,STSFMs_ARIMA.Seasonality));
STSFMs_ARIMA.SAR = Lags;
STSFMs_ARIMA.SMA = Lags;
else
STSFMs_ARIMA = arima('SMALags',12,'D',1,'SARLags',12,...
'Seasonality',12);
D1 = LagOp({1 -1},'Lags',[0,1]);
D12 = LagOp({1 -1},'Lags',[0,12]);
D = D1*D12;
dFinal_test = filter(D,Final_test);
STSFMs_ARIMA_1 = arima('SMALags', 12, 'D',1,'SARLags',12,'MALags',1,'ARLags',1,...
'Seasonality',12);
STSFMs_ARIMA_Minitab = arima('SMALags', 12,'SMA',0.9852,
'D',1,'SARLags',12,'SAR',0.1264,'MALags',1,'MA',0.0500,'ARLags',1,'AR',0.9688,...
'Seasonality',12,'Constant',-0.0002256,'Variance',2);
max_order = 3;
[aic_matrix,bic_matrix] = ARMA_model_order_tuning(Final_test,max_order);
end
Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks are a type of recurrent neural network
that is capable of long-term dependencies.
Conceptually, a recurring LSTM unit tries to "remember" all the past knowledge about
which the network is seen so far and to "forget" the irrelevant data. This is done by
introducing different layers with activation functions called "gates" for different purposes.
Each recurrent LSTM unit also maintains a vector called an "internal cell state" that
conceptually describes the information that was chosen to be retained by the previous
recurrent LSTM unit. An LSTM network comprises four different gates for different
purposes, as described below:
• Forget gate: determines the extent to which previous data can be forgotten.
• Input gate: determines the information to be written in the internal cell state.
• Input modulation gate: it is considered as a part of the input gate and is used to
modulate the information that the input gate will write on the internal cell state internally
adding nonlinearity to the information and normalizing the information. This is done to
reduce learning time, ensuring faster convergence. Although the actions of this gate are less
important than the others and are often treated as a concept that offers finesse, it is good
practice to include this in the structure of the LSTM unit.
• Output gate: determines which output (next hidden layer) is generated from the
internal state of the LSTM unit.
The architecture of an
LSTM cell
mu = mean(dataTrain);
sig = std(dataTrain);
dataTrainStandardized = (dataTrain - mu) / sig;
4. Preparation of training data
XTrain = dataTrainStandardized(1:end-1);
YTrain = dataTrainStandardized(2:end);
5. Defining the Long Short Term Memory network
numFeatures = 1;
numResponses = 1;
numHiddenUnits = 150;
layers = [ ...
sequenceInputLayer(numFeatures)
lstmLayer(numHiddenUnits)
fullyConnectedLayer(numResponses)
regressionLayer];
options = trainingOptions('adam', ...
'MaxEpochs',150, ...
'GradientThreshold',1, ...
'InitialLearnRate',0.005, ...
'LearnRateSchedule','piecewise', ...
'LearnRateDropPeriod',125, ...
'LearnRateDropFactor',0.2, ...
'Verbose',0, ...
'Plots','training-progress');
6. Training of the LSTM network
net = trainNetwork(XTrain,YTrain,layers,options);
8. Effective prediction of the variable selected for analysis, based on the observed
data
net = resetState(net);
net = predictAndUpdateState(net,XTrain);
YPred = [];
numTimeStepsTest = numel(XTest);
for i = 1:numTimeStepsTest
[net,YPred(:,i)] =
predictAndUpdateState(net,XTest(:,i),'ExecutionEnvironment','gpu');
end
9. Calculation of the square error
%unstandardize data
YPred = sig*YPred + mu;
YTest = dataTest(2:end);
rmse = sqrt(mean((YPred-YTest).^2))
figure
plot(dataTrain(1:end-1))
hold on
idx = numTimeStepsTrain:
(numTimeStepsTrain+numTimeStepsTest);
plot(idx,[data(numTimeStepsTrain) YPred],'.-')
hold off
ylabel("Values")
title("Forecast")
legend(["Observed" "Forecast"])
For the experimental part, we used an LSTM model to predict the Dst values 1h, 2h,
and 3h ahead, and a Gaussian Process classifier to predict the level of the geomagnetic
storms.
The training dataset has four months of hourly Dst values, starting from March 1st,
2001 until June 28th, 2001. This period includes the geomagnetic storm event that
occurred between March 31st – 1st April, as shown in next figure:
Training data,
1st March 2001 – 28th June 2001
The Gaussian Process multiclass classifier is used for geomagnetic storm prediction
depending on the level of activity. For instance, for Dst < -250 nT there is super
geomagnetic storm, for -50 nT < Dst < -250 nT there is an intense storm, and for Dst > -
50 nT a moderate storm. For a 3h ahead prediction, we obtained a 0.98 ROC AUC, as
presented in next figure:
Geomagnetic storm
between 14th
December 2006 – 16th
December 2006
The 3h ahead estimation of the Dst is presented in next figure:
Geomagnetic activity
predicted by the LSTM
model (3h ahead)
The evaluation of the Gaussian Process classifier is presented in the next two figures:
The LSTM model had an RMSE of 12.12 and a correlation coefficient of 0.83.
CONCLUSIONS