Introduction to Management

Science
Session 19
Monday, 15th November 2021
 Recap
• Classification Models
– kNN
• Confusion matrix
– Logistic regression
Types of Mathematical Models
 Queuing Theory
• Deals with the analysis and management of waiting
lines
• Waiting lines at
– Stores, banks, airports, hotels, theme parks, post
offices, restaurants, traffic lights, etc.
• Queuing models are used to
– Describe the behavior of queuing systems
– Determine the level of service to provide
– Evaluate alternative configurations for providing service
Common Queuing System Configurations
Customer Customer
... Leaves
Arrives Waiting Line Server

Customer
Server 1 Leaves
Customer Customer
...
Arrives Waiting Line Server 2 Leaves
Customer
Server 3 Leaves

Customer
... Leaves
Waiting Line Server 1
Customer Customer
...
Arrives Waiting Line Server 2 Leaves

... Customer
Waiting Line Server 3 Leaves
 Basics of Queuing Costs
Cost of providing Service

Total Cost

Cost of providing service

Cost of customer dissatisfaction

Service Level or # of Servers

What is the impact on the average waiting time in the queue?

 Characteristics of Queuing Systems

• Three key characteristics

– Arrival process
– Service process
– Number of servers
• Other measures
– System capacity
– Population size
– Average waiting time and other estimates
• Optimal analytical solution is achievable in a limited
number of cases
 The Arrival Process
• Arrival rate - the manner in which customers arrive at the
system for service.

 Arrivals are often described by a Poisson random

variable:
x e  
P( x)  , for x = 0, 1, 2, ...
x!

where l is the arrival rate (e.g., calls arrive at a

rate of l=5 per hour)
• Inter-arrival times follow an exponential
distribution with mean 1/ l
 Memory-Less Property
• The queuing models we will discuss assume
that arrival processes follow the Poisson
distribution
– Alternatively, inter-arrival times follow the
exponential distribution
• Exponential distribution has “memory-less” or
Markovian property
– Time until the next arrival does not depend on
time since last arrival
 However, here on Earth …
• We must first verify that arrivals can be approximated
by the Poisson distribution to use some of the simple
analytical models
– Collect data for # of arrivals per time period for several
hours, days or weeks
– Calculate average # of arrivals per time period and use this as
an estimate for l
– Construct histogram of actual data
– Construct histogram of the actual probabilities expected of a
Poisson random variable with mean l and compare
– If the two histograms are similar we are okay, otherwise …
 The Service Process
• Service time - the amount of time a customer spends
receiving service (not including time in the queue).

• Service times are often described by an Exponential

random variable:
t2

P(t1  T  t 2 )   e  x dx  e  ut1  e  t2 , for t1  t 2

t1

where m is the service rate (e.g., calls can be serviced

at a rate of m=7 per hour)
 The average service time is 1/m.
 Queuing Notation
• Kendall Notation ~ 1/2/3
• Parameter 1 for describing the arrival process
– M = Markovian inter-arrival times
– D = Deterministic inter-arrival times
• Parameter 2 for describing the service process
– M = Markovian service times
– G = General service times
– D = Deterministic service times
• Parameter 3 for indicating number of servers
 Common Operating Characteristics of Interest

• Utilization factor, % of time that all servers are busy.

• P0 - Prob. that there are zero units in the system.
• Lq - Avg number of units in line waiting for service.
• L - Avg number of units in the system (in line & being
served).
• Wq - Avg time a unit spends in line waiting for service.
• W - Avg time a unit spends in the system (in line & being
served).
• Pw - Prob. that an arriving unit has to wait for service.
• Pn - Prob. of n units in the system.
 Birth Death Rate Process
λ λ λ λ

0 1 2 N-1 N

µ µ µ µ

X Represents the number of customers in the system

In steady state, the average entrance and exit rate of the system in any state would be the same.
And the sum of probabilities of the system being in any state will equal to 1
 Birth Death Rate Process
In state 0: λ0P0=µ1P1 which means P1 = λ0P0/µ1
State 1:
λ0P0 + µ2P2 = λ1P1 + µ1P1
P2 = (λ1P1 + µ1P1 - λ0P0)/µ2
P2 = (λ1P1 + λ0P0 - λ0P0)/µ2
P2 = (λ1P1)/µ2= λ0λ1P0/ µ1 µ2
Pn = (λn-1Pn-1)/µn
Sum of all Pn = P0 {1 + λ0/µ1+ λ0λ1/ µ1 µ2+…}=1
 M/M/1 Model
• Utilization factor: percentage of time that the
server is busy  r = l / m
P0 = 1 - l / m = 1 - r and Pi = (1 – r ) r i
L = r / (1 – r) = l / (m – l)
W = (1 / l)L = 1 / (m – l)
Wq = W – 1/m = l / [m(m – l)]
Lq = lWq = l2 / [m(m – l)] = r2 / (1 – r)
Key Operating Characteristics
of the M/M/1 Model

1
W


L  W
1
Wq  W 


Lq  Wq
M/M/s Example