Lecture6 SimulatingTournaments

Simulating matches and
tournaments
Lecture 6
Wisdom of Crowds
Event Class Prediction (outcome)
Tampa – Kansas (Superbowl) 0.38
Liverpool – Man City 0.48
Warriors – Nets 0.53
Serena wins Australian open (yes/no) 0.64-0.36
Lecture # Lecture Title
1 ✔️ Introduction to Sports Analytics
Course Outline
Module 1: Measuring Team Strength and Predicting Outcomes
2 Normal models of score differentials in the NFL (I)
3 Normal models of score differentials in the NFL (II)
4 Logistic models and the Elo system
5 Poisson models for low-scoring sports
Module 1: Measuring Team Strength and Predicting Outcomes 6 Simulating matches and tournaments
Lecture 2 Normal models of score differentials in the NFL (I) Module 2: Situational analysis
7 Valuing states (I. Markov Chains)
Lecture 3 Normal models of score differentials in the NFL (II)
8 Valuing states (II. Applications to baseball)
Lecture 4 Logistic models and the Elo system 9 Working with PITCHf/x data: Clustering pitch types
Lecture 5 Poisson models for low-scoring sports 10 When should you go for it on fourth down? (I)
11 When should you go for it on fourth down? (II)
Lecture 6 Simulating matches and tournaments
12 Guest Lecture
13 xG: Measuring chance quality in soccer (I)
14 xG: Measuring chance quality in soccer (II)
Module 3: Player evaluation
Sections
15 The +/- score (I. Basic and adjusted +/-)
Christy: Monday, 9am-10am & 9pm-10pm
16 The +/- score (II. Regularized adjusted +/-)
Andrew: Tuesday & Thursday, 7pm-8pm
17 Streaks, momentum and the hot hand (I)
18 Streaks, momentum and the hot hand (II)
Office hours
Module 4: Tracking data
Christy: Tuesdays, 10am to 12pm
19 Introduction to working with tracking data
Andrew: Tuesday & Thursday, 8pm to 9pm
20 Guest Lecture: William Spearman (Liverpool FC)
Laurie: Thursdays, 1pm to 3pm
Final Project
21-23 <PROJECT WORK IN CLASS>
1st Assignment due TODAY
24 Project presentations
Simulating tournaments
• Who’s going to win:
• The superbowl?
• Stanley Cup?
• Premier League?
• Who’s going to qualify for playoffs?
• Get relegated?
Monte Carlo simulation
Evaluate complex distributions by random sampling.
Most simulations follow something like the following process:

1. Define range and pdf of input variables
2. Generate random samples of inputs by drawing from pdfs
3. Perform calculations on these variables
4. Aggregate results and explore distributions.
Credit: nicoguaro (wikipedia)
+
Simulating Tournaments
Want to evaluate the probability of season outcomes
• Distribution of positions in a table
• Outcome of knock-out tournament or play-offs
Components of a simulation
Model for predicting

1. match outcomes
Home/away parameters & covariates, exogeneous
parameters, generating distribution

1. match outcomes
2. Fixture schedule

1. 3. Simulator
match outcomes
Draw outcomes for all matches in schedule
Evaluate tournament outcome (table,

winner, etc)
2. Fixture schedule

1. 3. Simulator
match outcomes
parameters, generating distribution Repeat N
times
winner, etc)
2. Fixture schedule

1. 3. Simulator
match outcomes
parameters, generating distribution Repeat N 4. Evaluate distributions of
times outcomes
winner, etc)
2. Fixture schedule
Example: 2015/16 Premier League Season
Simulate 2015/16 Premier League season
• Probabilities of finishing: top, top 4, bottom 3
Components:
1. Team strength model (calibrate from 2014/15 season)
2. Fixture schedule (easy for league formats; a bit tricker for tournaments)
3. Simulation engine
4. Analysis of results
1. Team Strength Model
Poisson model
Home Goals ~ Poisson() Away Goals ~ Poisson()
Scoring rates dependent on the difference in team strengths

Home team l og λ h=𝜗 h − 𝜗 𝑎 + 𝛽 +𝛼 Intercept
scoring rate
Home & away team Home advantage parameter
strength parameters (+ve for home team, -ve for away)
Away team
l og λ 𝑎=𝜗 𝑎 − 𝜗 h − 𝛽+ 𝛼 Intercept
scoring rate
To Code
-> EPL_team_strength.py
Team Theta Lambda
Man City 0.44 1.87
Chelsea 0.40 1.80
Arsenal 0.34 1.70
Man United 0.25 1.55
Southampton 0.21 1.49
Tottenham 0.05 1.27
Liverpool 0.04 1.26
Stoke 0.03 1.24
Everton -0.02 1.18
Swansea -0.03 1.17
West Ham -0.03 1.17
Crystal Palace -0.04 1.16
Leicester -0.09 1.10
West Brom -0.13 1.06
Hull -0.18 1.01
Sunderland -0.22 0.97
Newcastle -0.23 0.96
Burnley -0.25 0.94
Aston Villa -0.26 0.93
QPR -0.30 0.89
Expected # goals scored
1. Team Strength Model against the average

team at a neutral ground
Team Theta Lambda

Man City 0.44 1.87
Chelsea 0.40 1.80
Arsenal 0.34 1.70
Man United 0.25 1.55
Tottenham 0.05 1.27
Liverpool 0.04 1.26
Stoke 0.03 1.24
Everton -0.02 1.18
Swansea -0.03 1.17
West Ham -0.03 1.17
Hull -0.18 1.01
Burnley -0.25 0.94
QPR -0.30 0.89
One issue is that three teams were relegated in 2014/15
And three teams were promoted from the league below to play in the EPL in 2015/16:
• Bournemouth
• Watford Team strengths?
• Norwich
Team Theta Lambda
Make a simple assumption Man City 0.44 1.87

Chelsea 0.40 1.80
Arsenal 0.34 1.70
The average strength of the promoted Man United 0.25 1.55
teams is roughly equivalent to the Tottenham 0.05 1.27
average strength of the relegated teams Liverpool 0.04 1.26
Stoke 0.03 1.24
Everton -0.02 1.18
Swansea -0.03 1.17
West Ham -0.03 1.17
Hull -0.18 1.01
Relegated teams, previous season
Burnley -0.25 0.94
QPR -0.30 0.89
Bournemouth -0.24 0.95
Watford -0.24 0.95
Norwich -0.24 0.95
Team Theta Lambda

Chelsea 0.40 1.80
Arsenal 0.34 1.70
Stoke 0.03 1.24
Everton -0.02 1.18
Swansea -0.03 1.17
West Ham -0.03 1.17
Hull -0.18 1.01
Average strength = -0.24
Burnley -0.25 0.94
QPR -0.30 0.89
Watford -0.24 0.95
Norwich -0.24 0.95
Team Theta Lambda

Chelsea 0.40 1.80
Arsenal 0.34 1.70
Stoke 0.03 1.24
Everton -0.02 1.18
Swansea -0.03 1.17
West Ham -0.03 1.17
Hull -0.18 1.01
Average strength = -0.24
Burnley -0.25 0.94
QPR -0.30 0.89
Watford -0.24 0.95 Promoted sides: each assigned the
Norwich -0.24 0.95 average strength of the relegated teams
2. Fixture Schedule
For league, just simulated all the scheduled fixtures.
For tournament: need to consider structure

• Is the scheduling of play-offs / knock-rounds pre-generated or randomly drawn?
• Seeding?
• Wildcards?
Code for simulating the FIFA world cup: https://github.com/eightyfivepoints/World-Cup-Simulations

3. Simulation Engine
1. 3. Simulator
match outcomes
Home/away parameters & covariates, exogeneous 4. Evaluate distributions of
parameters, generating distribution Repeat N outcomes
times
winner, etc)
2. Fixture schedule
Core of the simulate is to draw results for each match

1. 3. Simulator
match outcomes
times
winner, etc)
2. Fixture schedule
Home Goals ~ Poisson(| , ) Away Goals ~ Poisson( | , ))

1. 3. Simulator
match outcomes
times
winner, etc)
2. Fixture schedule
Home Goals ~ Poisson(| , ) Away Goals ~ Poisson( | , ))
Some additional choices:

• Run “hot”: update ’s as you simulated the season
• Draw ’s from distribution given sample error.
• Incorporate other covariates and exogenous parameters (travel, recovery time, match importance etc).
4. Simulation Analysis
Analyze and interpret the results:
• Expected performance of each team
• Who will make play-offs? win tournament?
• Strength of schedule (expected points vs an average schedule)
Find visually interesting ways to communicate results with effect

To Code
-> Sim_EPL_Season.py
Results
Low-High: 95% confidence interval

Results
12 teams predicted within
2 places of final position
Rank correlation between

expected and final
positions = 0.77 +- 0.22

Results

expected and final
positions = 0.77 +- 0.22
But at least two major

outliers
Leicester won league in 0

of 10000 sims
Chelsea finished 10th or

lower in only 3 of 10000

Uncertainty
Purpose of Monte Carlo simulations is to explore pdf of outcomes.
To properly explore the distribution of outcomes, we must try to correctly explore the
distributions of simulation variables.
In this case, team strengths are not known exactly: each has an associated standard error.
Uncertainty
Team
Man City 0.44 0.10 Standard error on parameters:
Chelsea
Arsenal
0.40
0.34
0.10
0.10
• Team strength: 0.1
Man United 0.25 0.10 • Intercept & beta: 0.03
Tottenham 0.05 0.10
Liverpool 0.04 0.10
Stoke 0.03 0.10
Everton -0.02 0.10
Swansea -0.03 0.10
West Ham -0.03 0.10
Hull -0.18 0.10
Burnley -0.25 0.10
QPR -0.30 0.10
Intercept 0.19 0.03
Beta 0.15 0.03
Uncertainty
Team
Chelsea
Arsenal
0.40
0.34
0.10
0.10
Tottenham 0.05 0.10
Liverpool 0.04 0.10 Each new simulation iteration i, draw new strength
Stoke 0.03 0.10
Everton -0.02 0.10 parameter for team t:
Swansea -0.03 0.10
West Ham
Crystal Palace
-0.03
-0.04
0.10
0.10
)
Hull -0.18 0.10
Burnley -0.25 0.10
QPR -0.30 0.10
Intercept 0.19 0.03
Beta 0.15 0.03
Uncertainty
Team
Chelsea
Arsenal
0.40
0.34
0.10
0.10
Tottenham 0.05 0.10
Liverpool 0.04 0.10 Each new simulation iteration i, draw new strength
Stoke 0.03 0.10
Everton -0.02 0.10 parameter for team t:
Swansea -0.03 0.10
West Ham
Crystal Palace
-0.03
-0.04
0.10
0.10
)
Hull -0.18 0.10
and new intercept and home advantage parameters
Burnley -0.25 0.10 )
QPR -0.30 0.10
Intercept 0.19 0.03 )
Beta 0.15 0.03
Results

expected and final
positions = 0.77 +- 0.22

outliers

of 10000 sims


Results

expected and final
positions = 0.78 +- 0.22

outliers

of 10000 sims


Vs Betting Odds
Assignment: Short Project 1
You are a ‘data journalist’ working for FiveThirtyEight.
It is the beginning of the regular season.
Nate Silver asks you to make projections for the season ahead:
- The probability of teams {winning the league; qualifying for play-offs, winning ‘cup’}
- Range of expected outcomes for each team
- Are they likely to improve (or not) relative to previous season.
He asks for a draft of your piece on his (virtual) desks within three weeks
Your job is to:
- Pick a sport & a season (e.g. 2017-18 NFL)

- Estimate team strengths from previous season(s) using the methods we have covered
- Simulate the season that you have chosen (as if you were at the beginning of it).
- Analyze the results (creating at least one chart and/or table)
- Write up your report in the style of a data journalist anticipating the outcome of the
season ahead. [no more than 3 pages, 12pt font, including figures & tables]
Project report + code is due on 3/10, midnight EST.

Group working:
- You may work in groups of up to three people (although you do not have to).
- You must submit your own report (not a joint report) detailing your own simulations
(preferably of a different seasons).
- Indicate at the top of the code where each person contributed
Data
Here is a list of some useful resources:
• https://fbref.com/en/ (soccer)
• https://www.football-data.co.uk/data.php (soccer)
• https://www.baseball-reference.com (baseball)
• https://www.basketball-reference.com (basketball)
• https://www.hockey-reference.com (hockey)
• https://www.pro-football-reference.com (NFL)
Any my own data repo here (please do not share with people not on the course).
Other Presentation Types
Other Presentation Types

Lecture6 SimulatingTournaments

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Lecture6 SimulatingTournaments

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Simulating matches and

• Who’s going to qualify for playoffs?

Most simulations follow something like the following process:

Credit: nicoguaro (wikipedia)

Model for predicting

Model for predicting

Model for predicting

Evaluate tournament outcome (table,

Model for predicting

Model for predicting

Home Goals ~ Poisson() Away Goals ~ Poisson()

Scoring rates dependent on the difference in team strengths

1. Team Strength Model against the average

Team Theta Lambda

One issue is that three teams were relegated in 2014/15

Make a simple assumption Man City 0.44 1.87

Make a simple assumption Man City 0.44 1.87

Make a simple assumption Man City 0.44 1.87

For tournament: need to consider structure

Code for simulating the FIFA world cup: https://github.com/eightyfivepoints/World-Cup-Simulations

Core of the simulate is to draw results for each match

Core of the simulate is to draw results for each match

Home Goals ~ Poisson(| , ) Away Goals ~ Poisson( | , ))

Core of the simulate is to draw results for each match

Home Goals ~ Poisson(| , ) Away Goals ~ Poisson( | , ))

Some additional choices:

Find visually interesting ways to communicate results with effect

Low-High: 95% confidence interval

Rank correlation between

Low-High: 95% confidence interval

Rank correlation between

But at least two major

Leicester won league in 0

Chelsea finished 10th or

Low-High: 95% confidence interval

Rank correlation between

But at least two major

Leicester won league in 0

Chelsea finished 10th or

Low-High: 95% confidence interval

Rank correlation between

But at least two major

Leicester won league in 5

Chelsea finished 10th or

Low-High: 95% confidence interval

It is the beginning of the regular season.

- Pick a sport & a season (e.g. 2017-18 NFL)

Project report + code is due on 3/10, midnight EST.

You might also like