PS60

ER continuation

Yanni $SQ 2/25/22

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Trade Strategy
Stock Selection
• Stock in play with a significant catalyst or earnings report
• Elevated RVOL above 3 for <200 M float, 1.5 > 200 M float
• Sector, overall market and other peers support direction
• Clear key levels of consolidation on the hourly or daily charts
• Clear premarket range to risk off of.
• Expanded Bollinger bands on hourly and daily chart
• Stock builds a base near its moving averages
• Has expanded key levels and has the potential to move in that range.
• Greater than a 3:1 risk to reward ratio

Tape
• Sharp move away from price with a fast break of the key level -- ideally off the
open
• Holding above key level if we retest that price
• Shallow volume on pull in + an expansion of volume on breakouts
• Holding above VWAP
• Large bids on the LV2
• Prints on the ask, with size
• TICK, ADD show positive readings
• Contraction on VIX
• Option flow with large premiums in our favor

Execution
• Looking to hid ask above inflection with a stop loss below the 5/10 hour ma
• In uncertain market look for more of a move to move trade or even look to flip
positions short on failed breakouts
• When you see it… Add risk, trail runners and let the trade work.
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POTENTIAL REASON2SELL
In my favor :

• Sharp down moves into support that could be too

steep
• Trades into first ATR target with low volume
• Comes into price target/ indicator and begins to
reject that price

Against me :
• Headline risk makes the trade invalidated
• Large offers on the tape
• Consolidation bellow ress
• drops vwap with volume
• Holds bellow important moving average / indicator

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TRADING PLAN
• Entry – 1 min opening range breakout above
116, short entry for a failed breakout under
113
• Exit Targets for long @ 122 , 125, 130
• Exit Targets for short @ 111, 108, 104

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 BIGGER PICTURE
• Call the market -- Russia Ready To Send
Delegation To Minsk For Ukraine Talks.
Futures held flat overnight to 4263. volatility
estimates and trading levels remain similar to
yesterday. 4300 is first resistance, followed by
4350. To the downside we mark 4200 and 4155
as key support. yesterday's rally was most
likely a short covering via put sellers, and that
short covering fed back into a negative
gamma environment. Basically, a feedback
loop sparked that tremendous reversal. These
types of short cover rallies are fragile and
could easily mean revert. Need to keep an
open mind as we are in a very volatile
environment.

• economic data -- USA Durable Goods Orders

(MoM) for Jan 1.600% vs 0.800% Est; Prior
Revised from (0.700)% to 1.200% USA Core
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) for Jan 0.700%
vs 0.400% Est; Prior 0.600%

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 SECTOR STRENGTH

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 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (LONG TERM)

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 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

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 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

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INTRADAY FUNDAMENTALS
STATISTICS:
• SQ (Block, aka Square) reported EBITDA of $184MM, solidly
above the St’s $142MM consensus, w/overall gross profit of Average Daily Volume: 388M
$1.18B (vs. the St $1.15B). GPV of $46.3B was a tiny bit above
the St’s $46.1B. Overall revs were mostly inline. Square GPV RVOL: 4.26
growth experienced a slowdown in January, which they believe
was due to the effects of the omicron variant, before growth ATR: 10.36
recovered in February. Bottom Line: the EBITDA came in a bit Short Float: 12.47%
better, but otherwise this was an uncharacteristically boring
quarter w/o much deviance vs. the consensus on the major Shares Float: 387.8M
figures.
• Down -65% Since last quarter, Down -72% from ATH Institutional Ownership:
• Bounced roughly 50% over the last 2 days from $82 to $123 62.4%
VARIABLE CHECKLIST
Stock Selection
• Stock in play with a significant catalyst
or earnings report ✔️
• Elevated RVOL above 3 for <200 M float,
1.5 > 200 M float ✔️
• Sector, overall market and other peers
support direction ✔️
• Clear key levels of consolidation on the
hourly or daily charts ✔️
• Clear premarket range to risk off of. ✔️
• Expanded Bollinger bands on hourly and
daily chart ✔️
• Stock builds a base near its moving
averages ✔️
• Has expanded key levels and has the
potential to move in that range. ✔️
• Greater than a 3:1 risk to reward ratio ✔️
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Tape
• Sharp move away from price with a
fast break of the key level -- ideally
off the open ✔️
• Holding above key level if we retest
that price X
• Shallow volume on pull in + an
expansion of volume on breakouts X
• Holding above VWAP X
• Large bids on the LV2 X
• Prints on the ask, with size X
• TICK, ADD show positive readings
• Contraction on VIX ✔️
• Option flow with large premiums in
our favor ✔️
Letter Grade
• A-
• Can look to play this name
long and short based on the
overall market
• Up a lot premarket but if
overall market sees a relief
bounce continuation from
yesterday, an oversold name
like this can move
aggressively to the upside
 TRADE MANAGEMENT (long side)

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 TRADE MANAGEMENT (short side)

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 IDEAL TRADE MANAGEMENT

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 TRADE REVIEW

WHAT DID YOU LEARN FROM
THIS TRADE?
– With good stock selection and a
highly volatile market
environment, was able to play
this name long and short and let
the vol pay me
HOW COULD YOU HAVE
DONE BETTER?
– I could have done a better job
with not taking the rejection
short at vwap and instead
looking at the long from the
support zone. Although I
traded the short side well,
there was no specific reason
to short the vwap a second
time after we held support
HOW WOULD YOU TRADE
THIS DIFFERENTLY FOR THE
NEXT TRADE?
- I would trade this less anticipatory
and more reactive. I took too many
feelers and rushed into positions
without being patient. Next trade I
want to focus on just executing at
my top spots and prices and not
really saving risk for feelers

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