CEMENT TRADE NARRATIVES in Mediterranean and Black Sea Regions

S.Levent KARACEL K On behalf of Marvel Intl Shipping&Trans.Co.

Cement Industry Overview /2009 Production/Consumption

As of Dec. 2009 records; world cement consumption decreased %6 compared to 2008 (not fully confirmed yet and Chinese consumption excluded), When the consumption of Chine is covered, world cement consumption seemed to catch the volume of 2008, In 2009; the most remarkable shrink was experienced in American and European markets (Spain was the leading distressed market with 45% decrease in cement consumption), Northern American cement consumption got narrowed by 25%; Southern American consumption by 2% and Russian consumption decreased by 25%, Stars of 2009 were Mediterranean countries like Libia, Algeria, Syria and Iraq, Western African countries increased the level of cement consumption remarkably, Total capacity increase in cement production was 170 Mt in 2009.

Expectations...
In 2010, North America is expected to increase its consumption by 3.4%; wherease South America by 3% recovery, in short term no recovery is expected for European market, African countries are expected to continue their increasing demand for cement and they seem to be attractive markets for exporters like Turkey, Russia is expected to recover its demand by %6 in 2010, China is not in favour of new capacity increase for cement due to its conservative economic development foreseen within 2010; but India seems to be more attractive on the context of cement consumption in the rest of 2010, Generally the import policies of rising markets like Egypt, Algeria, Syria, Libia and Russia will be important factors in cement trade for Mediterranean and Black Sea region; Also, local demand of producers like Turkey, Egypt and Greece will affect the volume of trade in the rest of 2010; Volatility resulted from factors other than the real demand for cement consumption will act as the other factors regulating the cement trade in Mediterranean and Black Sea region; Due to volatile market conditions it is not logical to do estimations for 2011 and 2012 regarding cement trade

Cement Traders will compete with...

Black Sea region has appeared as an important actor in grain and coal trade; Local grain and coal productions of Russia, Ukraine and other CIS countries are increasing in huge amounts and resulting in considerable increase in seaborne trade in Black Sea region; Therefore, the coal and grain seaborne trade seem to be main competitors of cement traders in finding the suitable tonnage for their cement cargoes.

Coaster Fleet / acc. to registered countries

750-1249 dwt 1250-1749 dwt NUMBER OF VESSELS 1750-2499 2500-3499 3500-4999 dwt dwt dwt 5000-6999 dwt 7000-9999 dwt

BULGARIA ROMANIA RUSSIA UKRAINE SYRIA SPAIN ITALY GREECE TURKEY

1

11 4 5 4 1 7 8 73

% %

4 3 1 11 1 5 6 45 1 47 14 17 1 1 4 41 57 35 5 14 1

4 86 18 3 15 6 6 1

1 5 14 8 33 1 38 3 46

8 3 1 1 6

DISTRIBUTION OF COASTER FLEET AMONG MED. AND BLACK SEA COUNTRIES

8 % 7 % 6 % 5 % 4 % 3 %

1 5 -174 d t 75 -1 4 d t

1 %

%
G Y G Y C Y

COUNTRIES

175 - 4

d t

-34

d t

35

-4

d t

-6

d t

d t

Distribution of Coaster Fleet among Med. and Black Sea Countries (Acc. to registered country)
NO OF VESSELS

47

49

d t 26

d t
21 NO OF VESSELS

30

14 2 1

17 2

10
1

11 1 5

2
B

0
SS A S A A A S A A

MA A

COUNTRIES

COUNT RIES

241 dt
NO OF VE LS SSE

86 d t 91 57 35 2
S S

NO OF VESSELS 4
B

32 2 18 20 15 6

4
B A

0
M A SS A

14

MA

SS A

S A

COUNTRIES

COUNTRIES

    

 
S B SS A M A A A A A S A

     

45

A C

69

Distribution of Coaster Fleet among Med. and Black Sea Countries (Acc. to registered country)
d t

NO OF VESSELS

B A A

MA

SS

S A A A

COUNTRIES

46
d t

38 33

NO OF VESSELS 2 5

14 8 3 1
B A A MA SS A S A S A A

COUNTRIES

THANK OU VER MUCH FOR OUR ATTENTION