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Chapter 6
Distributions of Sample
Statistics
Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education Ch. 6-1
Chapter Goals
After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
Describe a simple random sample and why sampling is
important
Explain the difference between descriptive and
inferential statistics
Define the concept of a sampling distribution
For each sample we draw, there will be a different sample mean, and the
sample mean can be regarded as a random variable with a probability
distribution.
Sample
Population
Population Sample
P(x)
.25
0
18 20 22 24 x
A B C D
Uniform Distribution
Sampling
Distributions
Sampling
Distributions
1 n
X Xi
n i1
σ
σX
n
Note that the standard error of the mean decreases as
the sample size increases
.2 .2
.1 .1
0 0
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
_
18 20 22 24 X X
A B C D
Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education Ch. 6-24
Developing a
Sampling Distribution
(continued)
P(x)
μ
X i
N
.25
18 20 22 24
21
4
0
18
A
20
B
22
C
24
D
x
σ
i
(X μ) 2
2.236
N
Uniform Distribution
E(X)
X i
18 19 21 24
21 μ
N 16
σX
( X i μ) 2
N
(18 - 21)2 (19 - 21)2 (24 - 21)2
1.58
16
Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education Ch. 6-26
If sample values are
not independent
If the sample size n is not a small fraction of the
population size N, then individual sample members are
not distributed independently of one another
Thus, observations are not selected independently
A finite population correction is made to account for
this:
σ2 N n σ Nn
Var( X) or σX
n N 1 n N 1
σ
μ X andμ σX
n
If the sample size n is not small relative to the population size N, then
σ Nn
μ X andμ σX
n N 1
Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education Ch. 6-28
Standard Normal Distribution for
the Sample Means
X μ X μ
Z
σX σ
n
where: =Xsample mean
μ
= population mean
σ
= standard error of the mean
x
E[X] μ
σ
σx
n
This is called the standard error of X .
X μx
Z
σX
Normal Population
E[X] μ Distribution
μ x
(i.e. x is unbiased ) Normal Sampling
Distribution
σ Normal Population
σx Distribution
n
μ x
(i.e. x is unbiased ) Normal Sampling
Distribution
As n increases, Larger
σ decreases
x
sample size
Smaller
sample size
μ x
Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education Ch. 6-36
Example 6.2 Executive Salary Distributions
(Normal Probability)
What is the probability that the sample mean will be greater than 14.4%?
A spark plug manufacturer claims that the lives of its plugs are
normally distributed with a mean of 60,000 miles and a
standard deviation of 4,000 miles. A random sample of 16
plugs had an average life of 58,500 miles. If the manufacturer’s
claim is correct, what is the probability of finding a sample
mean of 58,500 or less?
X μx
Z
σX
approaches the standard normal distribution
the sampling
As the n↑
distribution
sample
becomes
size gets
almost normal
large
regardless of
enough…
shape of
population
x
Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education Ch. 6-43
If the Population is not Normal
(continued)
Population Distribution
Sampling distribution
properties:
Central Tendency
μx μ
μ x
Variation Sampling Distribution
σ (becomes normal as n increases)
σx Larger
n Smaller
sample size
sample
size
μx x
Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education Ch. 6-44
How Large is Large Enough?
Solution:
Even if the population is not normally
distributed, the central limit theorem can be
used (n > 25)
… so the sampling distribution of x is
approximately normal
… with mean μx = 8
…and standard deviation σ x σ 3 0.5
n 36
Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education Ch. 6-47
Example
(continued)
Solution (continued):
7.8 - 8 μ X -μ 8.2 - 8
P(7.8 μ X 8.2) P
3 σ 3
36 n 36
P(-0.4 Z 0.4) 0.3108
Population Sampling Standard Normal
Distribution Distribution Distribution .1554
??? +.1554
? ??
? ? Sample Standardize
? ? ?
?
7.8 8.2 -0.4 0.4
μ8 X μX 8 x μz 0 Z
A random sample of 36 people was obtained, and the mean income was
$72,300.
This result provides strong evidence that the population mean income is higher than
$70,000 and that the coffee shop is likely to be a success. In this example we can see
the importance of sampling distributions and the central limit theorem for problem
solving.
a. What are the mean and variance of the sampling distribution for the
sample means?
d. What is the probability that, on average, those nine lightbulbs have lives of
fewer than 1,050 hours?
c. What is the probability that the sample mean is more than $4 below
the population mean?
d. What is the probability that the sample mean differs from the
population mean by more than $3?
Ch. 6-53
A random sample of 16 junior managers in the offices of
corporations in a large city center was taken to estimate average
daily commuting time for all such managers. Suppose that the
population times have a normal distribution with a mean of 87
minutes and a standard deviation of 22 minutes.
a) What is the probability that the sample mean is outside the range
85 to 95 minutes?
μ z/2σ X
provides limits for the sample mean x , given that the population mean is μ .
Typically, α is very small (α < .01), and standard practice in U.S. industries is
to use z = 3.
This is the source for the term Six Sigma used for various quality-assurance
programs (Hiam, 1992). If the sample mean is outside the acceptance
interval, then we suspect that the population mean is not μ.
In other words, the process is not operating properly and steps are taken to
correct the process.
Ch. 6-56
6.3
Sampling Distributions of
Sample Proportions
Sampling
Distributions
Properties:
P(1 P)
E(pˆ ) P and σ pˆ
n
(where P = population proportion)
pˆ P pˆ P
Z
σ pˆ P(1 P)
n
Standardized
Sampling Distribution Normal Distribution
.4251
Standardize
Sampling
Distributions
1 n
s2
n 1 i1
(x i x) 2
Short answer:
Most of the time we do not know µ (the population average)
and we estimate it with x (the sample average).
Ch. 6-78
Sampling Distribution of
Sample Variances
The sampling distribution of s2 has mean σ2
E[s 2 ] σ 2
The conclusion that the expected value of the sample variance is the
population variance is quite general. But for statistical inference we
would like to know more about the sampling distribution.
2
2 (n - 1)s
χ n 1 2
σ
has a chi-square (2 ) distribution with n – 1 degrees of
freedom
The mean and variance of this distribution are equal to the number of
degrees of freedom and twice the number of degrees of freedom:
4
2σ
Var(s 2 )
n 1
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 2 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 2 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 2
P( 102 K ) 0, 05
P( 102 K ) 0, 05
Ch. 6-89
If we have a random sample from a population with a
normal distribution, we can make inferences about the
population variance σ² by using s² and the chi-square
distribution.
probability
α = .05
2
213 = 22.36
Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education Ch. 6-92
Chi-square Example
(continued)
213 = 22.36 (α = .05 and 14 – 1 = 13 d.f.)
(n 1)s 2
2
So: P(s 2 K) P χ13 0.05
16
(n 1)K
or 22.36 (where n = 14)
16
(22.36)(16 )
so K 27.52
(14 1)
b. What is the probability that the sample variance is greater than 45?
c. What is the probability that the sample variance is greater than 60?
a. What is the probability that the sample mean is greater than 50?
b. What is the value of the sample variance such that 5% of the sample
variances would be less than this value?
c. What is the value of the sample variance such that 5% of the sample
variances would be greater than this value?
b. 5% of the sample variances would be less than this value of sample variance
2 ( n 1) s 2
P( s k ) P 2 0.95
2 17 s 2
17,.95 8.67 , 8.67 , s 2 25.50
50
a. Find the probability that the sample standard deviation is less than 2.5.
b. Find the probability that the sample standard deviation is more than 1.0.
(n 1) s 2 11(1) 2
b. P( 2
2
) P( 2 (11) 4.3) = between .95 and .975 (.9603 exactly)
(1.6)