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Sampling Distributions
Sutikno
Department of Statistics
Faculty of Sciences, and Data Analytics
Institut Tekonologi Sepuluh Nopember Surabaya
Tools of Business Statistics
• Descriptive statistics
– Collecting, presenting, and describing data
• Inferential statistics
– Drawing conclusions and/or making decisions
concerning a population based only on sample
data
Populations and Samples
Population Sample
a b cd b c
ef gh i jk l m n gi n
o p q rs t u v w o r u
x y z y
Why Sample?
Sample Population
Inferential Statistics
Drawing conclusions and/or making decisions
concerning a population based on sample results.
• Estimation
– e.g., Estimate the population
mean weight using the sample
mean weight
• Hypothesis Testing
– e.g., Use sample evidence to test
the claim that the population
mean weight is 120 pounds
Sampling Distributions
Sampling
Distributions
is age of individuals
• Values of X:
18, 20, 22, 24 (years)
Developing a
Sampling Distribution
μ
X i P(x)
N
.25
18 20 22 24
21
4
0
σ
i
(X μ) 2
2.236
18 20 22 24 x
N A B C D
Uniform Distribution
Developing a
Sampling Distribution
(continued)
Now consider all possible samples of size n = 2
1st 2nd Observation
Obs 18 20 22 24 16 Sample
Means
18 18,18 18,20 18,22 18,24
1st 2nd Observation
20 20,18 20,20 20,22 20,24 Obs 18 20 22 24
22 22,18 22,20 22,22 22,24 18 18 19 20 21
24 24,18 24,20 24,22 24,24 20 19 20 21 22
16 possible samples 22 20 21 22 23
(sampling with
replacement)
24 21 22 23 24
Developing a
Sampling Distribution
(continued)
20 19 20 21 22 .2
22 20 21 22 23 .1
0 _
24 21 22 23 24 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 X
(no longer uniform)
Developing a
Sampling Distribution
(continued)
E(X)
X i
18 19 21 24
21 μ
N 16
σX
( X i μ) 2
N
(18 - 21)2 (19 - 21)2 (24 - 21)2
1.58
16
Comparing the Population with its Sampling Distribution
.2 .2
.1 .1
0 0
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
_
18 20 22 24 X X
A B C D
Expected Value of Sample Mean
1 n
X Xi
n i1
Standard Error of the Mean
σ
σX
n
• Note that the standard error of the mean decreases as the
sample size increases
If sample values are not independent
(continued)
σ2 N n σ Nn
Var( X) or σX
n N 1 n N 1
If the Population is Normal
• If the sample size n is not large relative to the population size N, then
and
σ Nn
μX μ σX
n N 1
Z-value for Sampling Distribution
of the Mean
( X μ)
Z
σX
Normal Population
μx μ Distribution
μ x
(i.e. x is unbiased ) Normal Sampling
Distribution
(has the same mean)
μx
x
Sampling Distribution Properties
(continued)
Smaller
sample size
μ x
If the Population is not Normal
σ
μ x μand σx
n
Central Limit Theorem
the sampling
As the n↑
distribution
sample
becomes
size gets
almost normal
large
regardless of
enough…
shape of
population
x
If the Population is not Normal
(continued)
Population Distribution
Sampling distribution
properties:
Central Tendency
μx μ
μ x
Variation Sampling Distribution
σ (becomes normal as n increases)
σx Larger
n Smaller
sample size
sample
size
μx x
How Large is Large Enough?
(continued)
Solution:
• Even if the population is not normally
distributed, the central limit theorem can be
used (n > 25)
• … so the sampling distribution of xis
approximately normal
• … with mean μx = 8 σ 3
σx 0.5
• …and standard deviation n 36
Example
(continued)
Solution (continued):
7.8 - 8 μX -μ 8.2 - 8
P(7.8 μ X 8.2) P
3 σ 3
36 n 36
P(-0.5 Z 0.5) 0.3830
Population Sampling Standard Normal
Distribution Distribution Distribution .1915
??? +.1915
? ??
? ? Sample Standardize
? ? ?
?
7.8 8.2 -0.5 0.5
μ8 X μX 8 x μz 0 Z
Acceptance Intervals
Sampling
Distributions
• 0≤ ≤1
p̂
• has a binomial distribution, but can be approximated by a
p̂
normal distribution when nP(1 – P) > 5
Sampling Distribution of p ^
• Normal approximation:
Sampling Distribution
P(Pˆ )
.3
.2
.1
0
0 .2 .4 .6 8 1 P̂
ˆ) P 2
Properties: E(p X P(1 P)
σ pˆ Var
and n n
(where P = population proportion)
Z-Value for Proportions
pˆ P pˆ P
Z
σ pˆ P(1 P)
n
Example
(continued)
(continued)
Standardized
Sampling Distribution Normal Distribution
.4251
Standardize
Sampling
Distributions
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 2 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 2 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 2
2
(n 1)s Is chi-square distributed with (n – 1) = 13
χ2
σ2 degrees of freedom
probability
α = .05
2
213 = 22.36
Chi-square Example
(continued)
213 = 22.36 (α = .05 and 14 – 1 = 13 d.f.)
(n 1)s 2
2
So: P(s 2 K) P χ13 0.05
16
(n 1)K
or 22.36 (where n = 14)
16
(22.36)(16 )
so K 27.52
(14 1)