V2 virus in The Islands

Matthew Darby, Daniel Kindy, Jack Varnum

Introduction to study
● Research Question: What is the prevalence of V2 among residents of The Island,
and how does it vary by age, gender, and other demographic factors?

● The subjects of the study were randomly selected from their respective islands,
with each island having fifty households chosen at random and a random person
living in the household chosen to participate in the study.

● Once the data was collected, it was analyzed for patterns that appeared to be of
potential significance, and these patterns were further researched to determine
their actual significance.
 Basic statistics from the sample

Mean age of V2 infection = 16.9281 years old

Mean age of V2 infection by gender

Male = 17.5200

Female = 16.2344

Proportion of each island afflicted

Bonne Sante = 44/50 sampled afflicted or 88%

Ironbard = 46/50 sampled afflicted or 92%

Providence = 48/50 sampled afflicted or 96%

 Percentage of population Infected by V2 by Island

This is a pie chart using ggplot presenting data

from the basic statistics sample slide. This is
showing distribution among the 3 islands.

We used a pie chart because we thought it was

the best way to show the proportion and
distribution of V2 among the islands.

Highest Afflicted Providence(96%)

Lowest Afflicted Bonne Sante(88%)

Bonne Sante also has the most

unafflicted(12%) and Providence has least
unafflicted(4%)
Hypotheses
Hypothesis 1
●The average age of v2 infection among the islands is similar
●Use an Anova test to see if the 3 islands have statistically similar means.
Hypothesis 2
●There is not an association between a person’s gender and whether or not they
caught V2.
●Use a 2 sample t-test to determine whether or not there is a relationship between
proportion of infected individuals between men and women.
Hypothesis 3
●The majority of people catch V2 in the first 20 years of their life.
●Use a 1 sample t-test to find a 95% confidence interval for the true mean of the age
at which residents of the islands catch V2 among those that have caught it.
Testing Hypothesis 1
The average age of v2 infection among the islands is similar
In order to test if the 3 islands have statistically similar means we must use an ANOVA test for variance in population
mean. The Null hypothesis is that the there are no significant differences between the means. In this case the 3
means for the Ages of Infection by island. The Alternative hypothesis is that at least one of the sample means is
dissimilar from the rest of the samples.
We can do this by using the aov() , and summary() commands in r. In order to test the mean age of Infection per
island we type test <- aov(Age.of.infection ~ Island, data = sample).
In order to see the results of the test we type summary(test) which then displays this
Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)
Island 2 289 144.7 1.073 0.346
Residuals 92 12410 134.9

The Pr(>F) value is our p-value. By comparing this to our confidence level of 95% or <.05 we can see that we
have .346 < .05 (which is false) meaning we do not reject the null hypothesis, thus the test shows us that the null
hypothesis is correct. Therefore the test tells us that there is no significant difference between the mean age of
infection between islands. By looking at the Barplots on the next slide we can see that this is correct.
Age of infection by Island

This graph helps shed light on

when somebody is most likely to
catch V2.

Mean Age of Infection

Providence = 16.5417 years old

Ironbard = 15.4565 years old

Bonne Sante =18.1364 years old

 Hypothesis 2
● There is not an association between a person’s
gender and whether or not they caught V2.
We used a two-proportions test to compare infected
individuals male/female. We started with the prop.test
function is then used with the x and n arguments to
specify the number of infected individuals and total
number of individuals for each gender
Work shown :
Based on the data results, the p-value is greater than the
significance level which is at 0.05 < 0.6248 thus we fail to
reject the null hypothesis and that there is insufficient
evidence to conclude that there is a significant difference
between genders with respect to catching V2. The 95%
confidence interval for the difference in proportions is (-
0.13014171, 0.06176564). This means that we are 95%
confident that the true difference in proportions lies
within this interval. Since the interval contains both
positive and negative values, we cannot conclude that one
group has a significantly higher proportion of infections
than the other. we would expect the true difference in
proportions to fall within this interval 95% of the time. the
proportions are basically equal
Hypothesis 3
Ho: P(Age of Infection <= 20) = 0.5
Ha: P(Age of Infection <= 20) > 0.5

By running 1-sample t-tests, there is

significant evidence to support the hypothesis
that more than 50% of islands inhabitants
catch V2 within the first 20 years of their life:
accounting for the 7.33% of the sample that
never caught V2 still shows that the true
proportion of islands residents who catch V2
before turning 21 is still at least 56.55% with
95% confidence.

Hypothesis 3 (continued)
Ho: P(Age of Infection <= 20) = 0.5
Ha: P(Age of Infection <= 20) > 0.5
The ages of patients at the time of their
initial infection are heavily skewed to the
right, with a mean age of infection of 16.928
years old (red line) and a median of 16 years
old (blue line), with 62.67% of all participants
having caught V2 at or before 20 years old.
Using a 1 sample t-test, we can
determine with 95% confidence that the
true mean age of infection is between
14.950 years old and 18.906 years old.
Similarly, another 1 sample t-test can be
used to determine with 95% confidence that
between 59.75% and 75.50% of inhabitants
of the Islands catch V2 within the first 20
years of their lives, meaning that there is
significant evidence to support this claim.
Conclusions

By using the Anova test we can see that for Hypothesis 1 (The average age of V2 infection among the
islands is similar). We saw that the Islands have statistically very similar mean ages of infection. Meaning
that the Island has little to no effect on when one is likely to first contract the V2 virus.

To conclude for hypothesis 2, We reviewed the results of the two-proportions test using the prop test
function and we fail to reject the null hypothesis. The p-value of 0.6248 is greater than the alpha level of
0.05 (significance), which means there is insufficient evidence to suggest a significant difference in the
proportion of V2 infections between men and women (gender). Therefore, we as a group cannot conclude
that there is an association between a person's gender and their likelihood of being infected with V2.

In testing of hypothesis 3, the data showed a strong enough deviation from the null hypothesis to reject it,
leading us to conclude that the majority of all islanders do in fact catch V2 before the age of 20, as the p-
value of having such a sample by random chance is significantly smaller than the alpha level of 0.05.