What is a Good Argument?

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What is an argument?

 An argument is a set of statements, one of

which, called the conclusion, is affirmed on
the basis of the others, which are called the
premises.
Layman,C.S.(2002). The Power of Logic. Boston: McGraw-Hill

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What is logic?

 Logic is the study of methods for evaluating

arguments

 Evaluate whether the premises of an

argument adequately support its conclusion

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What is a statement?

 A statement is a sentence that is either true

or false
 It has a truth-value.
 The premises of an argument are the
statements on the basis of which the
conclusion is affirmed (The statements that
try to prove the conclusion right)

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What is a Good Argument?

 A good argument is one in which the

premises give good reason to believe the
conclusion is true.
 What is a “good reason”?
- There should be good reason to believe the
premises are true.
- The premises lead to, support, establish
the conclusion.

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Good Arguments

 If we don’t have a good reason to believe the

premises, then the premises won’t give us
good reason to believe the conclusion
 Can’t believe premises, then premise won’t prove
conclusion
 False premises can be used to prove
anything

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What is a Good Argument?
 False premise, false conclusion
All books are written by women. (Not true)
So the author of this book is a woman. (False)
 False premise, true conclusion
All books are written by women. (False)
All women are human beings. (True)
So the author of this book is a human being. (True)
**Conclusion can be true even if one premise is
false.
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Plausible claims
 A claim is plausible (possible/believable) if
we have good reason to believe it is true.

 It is less plausible the less reason we have to

believe it is true.

 It is implausible or dubious if we have no

reason to believe it.

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What is a Good Argument?
 An argument is no better than its least
plausible premise.
 Example: Suzy: Dr. E is mean.

Wanda: Why do you say that?

Suzy: Because he’s not nice.
Analysis: “He is not nice” isn’t more plausible
than “Dr. E is mean.”
This is bad argument

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 Conclusion follows from the
premises
Dr. E teaches critical thinking.
Dr. E is over six feet tall.
So Dr. E is bald.(No connection)
The conclusion does not follow from the premises There’s no
connection. So not a good reason to believe the conclusion.
Dogs have souls.
So you should treat dogs humanely.
Even if you agree that the premise is plausible, it is less
plausible than the conclusion. So it does not give us
good reason to believe the conclusion.

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What is a Good Argument?
 The connection between the premises and
conclusion is important
 One claim follows from some other claims
Every student at this school has health
insurance.
Suzy is a student at this school.
So Suzy has health insurance.
It’s impossible for the premises to be true and the
conclusion false.
We have good reason to believe the
premises, so we have good reason to believe the
conclusion.
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Valid argument

 An argument is either valid or invalid. There

are no degrees to it, no judgement involved.

Valid Invalid

Scale
Strong Weak
Bad arguments

An invalid argument can be classified on a

scale from strong to weak.

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 Premises could be true

Is the conclusion
false?

No = Valid Yes = Invalid

Every way the premises How likely
could be true the
conclusion is true.

Very unlikely Not so unlikely

STRONG WEAK

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Valid Argument

 Either an argument is valid or it isn’t. There

are no degrees to it. But the strength of an
argument is a matter of degree.

 To evaluate arguments you have to imagine

possible ways the premises could be true.
You have to be creative. Imagine the
possibilities.

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Valid argument
 A valid argument is one in which the premises
support the conclusion completely.
 It is necessary that if the premises are true, then the
conclusion is true.
 An argument is valid if it is impossible for the
premises to be true and the conclusion false (at the
same time).
 An argument that is not valid is called invalid.

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Valid Argument
 A valid argument need not be good.
E.g. Circles are triangles.
Triangles are rectangles.
So circles are rectangles.
This argument is valid but bad
(Premises support the conclusion - valid,
but the information is false – bad argument)
The argument is bad because it has false
premises, not because it’s invalid.

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Valid arguments
 An argument can have one or more false
premises and still be valid.
E.g. All birds have beaks (true). Some cats
are birds (false). So, some cats have
beaks.
All sharks are birds (false). All birds are
politicians (false). So, all sharks are
politicians.
(Premises support conclusion, valid but bad)

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Valid argument
 We cannot conclude that an argument is valid
simply because the premises are all true.
E.g. Some Americans are women (true).
Leonardo DiCaprio is an American (true).
Therefore, Leonardo DiCaprio is a
woman. (false)
 Though the premises are true, the conclusion is
false, so invalid

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Valid argument
 A valid argument has this feature: It is necessary
that if the premises are true, then the conclusion is
true.
 An invalid argument has this essential feature: It is
not necessary that if the premises are true, then
the conclusion is true.

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Invalid Arguments
 Invalid arguments can be divided into strong and
weak arguments
Invalid
Strong Weak
Premises false conclusion false Premises true conclusion false

 An argument is strong if it is possible but extremely

unlikely for the premises to be true and the conclusion
false ( at the same time).
 An argument is weak if it is possible and likely for the
premises to be true and conclusion false (at the same
time).
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Valid Argument

 A strong argument with plausible premises

can be good. But a weak argument is always
bad.
E.g.
Jack is a student.
So Jack doesn’t ride a motorcycle.

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Strong and weak arguments
 An argument is strong if there is some way, some
possibility, for its premises to be true and its
conclusion false (at the same time), but every such
possibility is extremely unlikely.

 An argument is weak if it’s possible and not unlikely

for its premises to be true and conclusion false (at
the same time)

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Strong and weak arguments
 Example: Jack is a student.
So Jack doesn’t ride a motorcycle.

 Analysis: The argument is weak as the

conclusion doesn’t follow the premises.
 Reasons: it is not unlikely for the student to
own a motorcycle or he could have borrowed
one.
 Every weak argument is bad.

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Summary

 Every good argument is valid or strong.

 Not every valid or strong argument is good (a
premise could be implausible).
 Only invalid arguments are classified from
strong to weak.
 Every weak argument is bad.

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3 Tests for an Argument to be Good

 There are good reasons to believe the

premises are true. (Premises are plausible)
 The argument is valid and strong.
 The premises are more plausible than the
conclusion.

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Are the following arguments valid?

 Dr. E is a philosophy lecturer. All philosophy

lecturers are bald. So Dr.E is bald.

Analysis:
The argument is valid.
The conclusion is true too.
But it’s a bad argument,
because the second premise
is false.
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Are the following arguments valid?

 Jack is a bachelor. So Jack was never

married.

Analysis:
This is not valid: Jack could have been
divorced. The argument is weak: It’s not all
that unlikely the premise could be true and
conclusion false.

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Are the following arguments valid?
Maria’s hair is naturally black. Today Maria’s hair
is red. So Maria dyed her hair.
Analysis:
Could the premises be true and the conclusion
false?
Maria might be taking a new medication?
Stood too close when they were painting her car?
Unlikely but possible.
The argument is strong, not valid. Argument is
good because we know that Maria’s hair is black.

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How do we show an argument is weak?

We describe at least one likely way in which

the premises could be true and conclusion
false.

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Weak or strong argument?
 Good teachers give fair exams, and Dr. E gives
fair exams. So Dr. E is a good teacher.
Analysis:
Premises are true and so is the conclusion.
But, is there a way the premises could be true and the
conclusion false? Yes.
Dr. E could be a boring teacher and just copied the test
from an instructor’s manual. The premise also doesn’t
say that only good teachers give fair exams.
The argument is weak and hence bad.

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Weak or strong argument?
Tom: You didn’t have eggs at home this morning, did you?
Dan: No. Why?
Tom: Well, you’ve some in the refrigerator now.
Dan: Zoe must have bought eggs, since she knew we
were out.
Analysis:
This isn’t valid. Zoe’s mum could have brought over the
eggs; the landlord might have brought them over; a guest
who was staying with them might have bought them;…
So many likely possibilities for the premises to be true and
the conclusion false: weak argument.

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Weak or strong argument?
I didn’t mean to kill Louise.
I only wanted to scare her.
That’s what was in my
mind, Only that. I swear.

Analysis: He might be telling the truth. All he says may

be true, yet the argument is weak, and hence bad.
What he says shouldn’t create reasonable doubt.
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Arguments
 A good argument gives us good reason to
believe the conclusion
 A bad argument tells us nothing about whether
the conclusion is true or false
 If we encounter a bad argument, we have no
more reason to believe or disbelieve the
conclusion than we had before.
 A bad argument does not prove that the
conclusion is false or even dubious

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Strong vs Valid Arguments

 A strong argument with true premises is

sometimes better than a valid one with the
same conclusion

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Example

A. All parakeets are under 2 feet

tall.
Therefore, the parakeets on
sale at the local mall are under 2 feet tall.
B. All parakeets anyone in this class has ever
seen, or heard, or read about are under 2 feet
tall.
Therefore, the parakeets on sale at the local
mall are under 2 feet tall.
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Example

 Which is the better argument?

 (A) is valid; (B) is strong
 In this case, (B) is the better argument,
because its premise is clearly true.
 It gives good reason to believe that its
conclusion is true.

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Strong vs Valid Arguments
Last week Lee told Maria:

Every garbage can issued by this city that I’ve seen or

anyone else has seen is green. So all city-issued
garbage cans in this city are green.

A strong argument, and it’s good.

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Strong vs Valid Arguments
Now compare with this:
This city issues only green garbage cans.
Therefore, all city-issued garbage cans in this city are
green.

A valid argument with the same conclusion.

This one begs the question.
A strong argument with true premises is
sometimes better than a valid one with the same
conclusion.

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1. Ralph is a dog. So Ralph barks.
Argument? Yes or No
Conclusion:
Premises:
Classify: Valid or Invalid?
If not valid, show why:
Good Argument? (Choose one)
 It’s good (passes the three tests)

 It’s bad because a premise is false.

 It’s bad because it’s weak.

 It’s bad because it begs the question?

 It’s valid or strong, but you don’t know if the premises

are true, so you can’t say if it’s good or bad.

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2. Whenever Spot barks, there’s a cat outside. Since he’s
barking now, there must be a cat outside.
Argument? Yes or No
Conclusion:
Premises:
Classify: Valid or Invalid?
If not valid, show why:
Good Argument? (Choose one)
 It’s good (passes the three tests)

 It’s bad because a premise is false.

 It’s bad because it’s weak.

 It’s bad because it begs the question?

 It’s valid or strong, but you don’t know if the premises

are true, so you can’t say if it’s good or bad.

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3. Alison is Kim’s sister, right? So Alison and Kim have the
same father and mother.
Argument? Yes or No
Conclusion:
Premises:
Classify: Valid or Invalid?
If not valid, show why
Good Argument? (Choose one)
 It’s good (passes the three tests)

 It’s bad because a premise is false.

 It’s bad because it’s weak.

 It’s bad because it begs the question?

 It’s valid or strong, but you don’t know if the premises

are true, so you can’t say if it’s good or bad.

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4. Bob has worked as a car mechanic for twenty years. Anyone who
works that long at a job must enjoy it. So Bob enjoys being a car
mechanic.
Argument? Yes or No
Conclusion:
Premises:
Classify: Valid or Invalid?
If not valid, show why:
Good Argument? (Choose one)
 It’s good (passes the three tests)

 It’s bad because a premise is false.

 It’s bad because it’s weak.

 It’s bad because it begs the question?

 It’s valid or strong, but you don’t know if the premises are
true, so you can’t say if it’s good or bad.

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1. Ralph is a dog. So Ralph barks.
Argument? Yes
Conclusion: Ralph barks
Premises: Ralph is a dog.
Classify: Valid
If not valid, show why:
Good Argument? (Choose one)
 It’s good (passes the three tests)

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2. Whenever Spot barks, there’s a cat outside. Since he’s
barking now, there must be a cat outside.
Argument? Yes
Conclusion: Whenever Spot barks, there is a cat outside.
Premises: Spot’s barking now. There must be a cat outside.
Classify: Invalid
If not valid, show why: Maybe he’s barking at the garbage
man outside.
Good Argument? (Choose one)
 It’s bad because it’s weak.

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3. Alison is Kim’s sister, right? So Alison and Kim have the
same father and mother.
Argument? Yes or No
Conclusion: Allison and Kim have the same mother and
father.
Premises: Alison is Kim’s sister.
Classify: Invalid
If not valid, show why: They maybe half sisters, or
stepsisters, or adopted. It depends
on what the speaker means by
sister.
Good Argument? (Choose one)
 It’s bad because it’s weak.

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4. Bob has worked as a car mechanic for twenty years. Anyone
who works that long at a job must enjoy it. So Bob enjoys being
a car mechanic.
Argument? Yes or No
Conclusion:
Premises:
Classify: Valid or Invalid?
If not valid, show why: Bob might not be able to get any other
job
Good Argument? (Choose one)
 It’s bad because it’s weak.

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THANK YOU

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