MATHEMATICAL MODELS IN

EPIDEMIOLOGY

Adama Science and Technology University

School of Applied Natural Science
Department of Applied Mathematics
SEMINAR - I
Boaz Tamire
Advisor Feb,2023
Mr. FikreMariam Adama, Ethiopia
 Todays Agenda

01 Introduction 02 Literature Review

03 Research Methods 04 Discussion

05 Conclusion
 Introduction

Mathematical Modeling
Mathematical modeling is the application of mathematics to describe
real world problems and investigating important questions that arise
from it. Using mathematical tools, the real-world problem is
translated to a mathematical problem. A solution to the mathematical
problem is obtained, which is interpreted in the language of real-
world problem to make predictions about the real world.
 Introduction

Epidemiology
epidemiology is a branch of medicine that relates to the study of the
incidence, distribution, and possible control of disease or
determinants of health.(WHO)
 Introduction

Mathematical Modeling in Epidemiology

Mathematical modeling in epidemiology is the use of mathematical
equations and computer simulations to study the spread of infectious
diseases. It is used to understand how diseases spread, predict the
impact of interventions, and inform public health policy. Mathematical
models can be used to estimate the number of people who will be
infected, the number of people who will die, and the effectiveness of
different interventions."
 Introduction

Epidemic vs Pandemic vs Endemic

• A disease that occurs regularly in certain regions is called
endemic. When a disease becomes endemic, the number of people
falling ill remains relatively constant over time.
• The spread of a disease is termed an epidemic when it occurs with
unusual frequency in a certain region and for a limited period of
time.
• If a disease spreads across countries and continents, experts refer
to it as a pandemic.
 Introduction

Background
In order to describe a mathematical model for the spread of a
communicable disease, it is necessary to make some assumptions
about the means of spreading infection. The basic compartmental
models to describe the transmission of communicable diseases are
contained in a sequence of three papers by W.O. Kermack and A.G.
McKendrick in 1927, 1932, and 1933. The first of these papers
described epidemic models.
 Introduction

Background
In the work of Ross and Kermack and McKendrick there is a threshold
quantity, the basic reproduction number, which is now almost
universally denoted by Ro. The basic reproduction number-Ro, is
defined as the expected number of disease cases (secondary
infections) produced by a “typical” infected individual in a wholly
susceptible population over the full course of the disease outbreak.
 Introduction

Objectives
a. General Objective
The general objective of this seminar study is to examine how mathematical
models are important in epidemiology
b. Specific Objectives
• To provide an overview of the Kermack-McKendrick epidemic model and its
implications for public health.
• To construct a reliable SIR model.
 Introduction

Significance of Study
our world is suffering in many epidemics and pandemics through out history.
Such as
• Spanish Flu Epidemic(1918-1919) 50,000,000 deaths
• Covid 19 Pandemic 6,807,572 deaths and 753,000,188 confirmed cases.

Hence, The significance of this study is doubtlessly important.

 Literature Review

Literature Review
One of the earliest and most well-known mathematical models in
epidemiology is the simple Kermack-McKendrick model, which
describes the spread of an infectious disease in a homogeneous
population. This model has been used to study the dynamics of diseases
such as measles, rubella, and smallpox, and has been useful in
evaluating the impact of vaccination and other interventions.
 Literature Review

Literature Review
This model is a compartmental model, which divide the population into
groups such as susceptible, infected, and recovered, have been used to
evaluate the impact of interventions such as school closures and
quarantine measures on disease transmission. These models have been
used to study diseases such as SARS, Ebola, and COVID-19, and have
provided insights into the potential effectiveness of various control
measures.
 Methodology

The SIR Model

We divide the population being studied into three classes labeled S,
I, and R.
• Let S(t) denote the number of individuals who are susceptible to
the disease, that is, who are not (yet) infected at time t.
• I(t) denotes the number of infected individuals, assumed
infective and able to spread the disease by contact with
susceptibles.
 Methodology

The SIR Model

• R(t) denotes the number of individuals who have been infected and
then removed from the possibility of being infected again or of
spreading infection.

Removal is carried out either through isolation from the rest of the
population, or through immunization against infection, or through
recovery from the disease with full immunity against reinfection, or
through death caused by the disease.
 Methodology

SIR Model Solution

The model will have a unique solution if these solutions are satisfied :
• The initial number of susceptible individuals, S(0), must be positive.
• The initial number of infected individuals, I(0), must be positive.
• The initial number of recovered individuals, R(0), must be non-negative.
• The sum of the initial number of susceptible, infected, and recovered individuals
must be equal to the total population size, N.
 Methodology

SIR Model Solution

However, there are certain scenarios where the model may not have a
solution, and these can occur when:

• if the initial number of infected individuals is greater than the total

population
• if the transmission rate is negative,
 Methodology

SIR Model
 Methodology

SIR Model
The special case of the model proposed by Kermack and McKendrick
in 1927 which is the starting point for our study of epidemic models is
S′ = -βSI
I ′ = βSI - αI (2.10)
R′ = αI
 Methodology

SIR Model assumptions

The model is based on the following assumptions:
• An average member of the population makes contact sufficient to
transmit infection with βN others per unit time, where N represents
total population size
• Infectives leave the infective class at rate α per unit time.
• There is no entry into or departure from the population, except
possibly through death from the disease.
 Methodology

SIR Model
In our model, R is determined once S and I are known, and we can drop
the R equation from our model, leaving the system of two equations:
S′ = -βSI
I ′ = βSI - αI, (2.11)

together with initial conditions

S(0) = So, I (0) = Io, So + Io = N.
 Methodology

Epidemics Occurence
For
I ′ = βSI - αI
I(t)=I(0)*𝑒^(𝐵𝑁-α)𝑡
Where S≈N, I<<N
Epidemics occur when
𝐵𝑁-α>0
𝐵𝑁=α
𝐵𝑁/α>1
Ro= 𝐵𝑁/α
 Methodology

SIR Model
The sum of the two equations of (2.11) is
(S + I)′ = -αI.
Thus S + I is a non-negative smooth decreasing function and therefore
tends to a limit as t → ∞. Also, it is not difficult to prove that the
derivative of a smooth decreasing function which is bounded below must
tend to zero, and this shows that
I ∞ = lim t → ∞ I(t) = 0 Thus S + I has limit S ∞
 Methodology

SIR Model
Integration of the sum of the two equations of (2.11) from 0 to ∞ gives
- ∫(S(t) + I (t))′dt =So+ Io - S∞= N - S∞ = α ∫I(t)dt.
Division of the first equation of (2.11) by S and integration from 0 to ∞
gives
log So / S∞ = β ∫ I(t)dt
= β/𝛼 [N - S∞] (2.12)
= R0 [1 -S∞/ 𝑁 ].
 Methodology

SIR Model
Integration of the first equation of (2.11) from 0 to t gives
log So/ 𝑆(𝑡) = β∫ I (t)dt= β α [N - S(t) - I (t)],
and this leads to the form
I (t) + S(t) - α /β log S(t) = N - α/β log So. (2.13)
This implicit relation between S and I describes the orbits of solutions of
(2.11) in the (S, I) plane.
 Methodology

SIR Model
In addition, since the right side of (2.12) is finite, the left side is also
finite, and this shows that S∞> 0. It is not difficult to prove that there is a
unique solution of the final size relation (2.12). To see this, we define the
function
g(x) = log So/X -Ro[1-x/N] Then
g(0+) > 0, g(N) < 0, and g′(x) < 0 if and only if
0 < x < N/R0
 Methodology

SIR Model
If Ro > 1, g(x) is monotone decreasing from a positive value at x = 0+ to a
minimum at x = N/Ro and then increases to a negative value at x = No.
Thus there is a unique zero S∞ of g(x) with
S∞ < N/So . In fact, g(So/Ro ) = log Ro - Ro + S𝑜/ 𝑁

Since log Ro < Ro- 1 for Ro > 0, we actually have

g(So/Ro ), and S∞<So/Ro (2.14)
 Methodology

SIR Model
An important question is how the basic reproduction number changes if a
parameter of the model varies. If R0, and therefore S∞, is a function of a
parameter η, implicit differentiation of the final size relation (2.12) gives
(R0/𝑁 - 1/S∞ ) 𝑑S∞/ 𝑑𝜂 = 𝑑Ro/𝑑𝜂 (1 - S∞/𝑁)
Because of (2.14), if R0 increases then S∞ decreases.
 Methodology

SIR Model
It is generally difficult to estimate the contact rate β which depends on the
particular disease being studied but may also depend on social and
behavioral factors. The quantities So and S∞ may be estimated by
serological studies (measurements of immune responses in blood
samples) before and after an epidemic, and from these data, the basic
reproduction number R0 may be estimated by using (2.12). This estimate,
however, is a retrospective one which can be derived only after the
epidemic has run its course.
 Methodology

SIR Model
In order to prevent the occurrence of an epidemic, if infectives are introduced into a
population, it is necessary to reduce the basic reproduction number Ro below one. This
may sometimes be achieved by immunization, which has the effect of transferring
members of the population from the susceptible class to the removed class and thus of
reducing S(0). Immunization of some members of the population produces a new model. If
a fraction p of the population is successfully immunized the effect is to decrease the
number of susceptibles from S(0) to S(0)(1 - p). Originally, the basic reproduction number
is βN/ α , but in the new situation with a decreased number of susceptibles the basic
reproduction number would be βN(1-p)/ α . This is less than 1 if p satisfies βN(1-p) /α < 1
 Methodology

SIR Model
This gives
1 - p < α/ βN, or
p > 1 - α/ βN = 1 - 1/R0
Initially, the number of infectives grows exponentially because the equation for I may be
approximated by
I ′ = (βN - α)I
and the initial growth rate is
r = βN - α = α(R0 - 1) .
This initial growth rate r may be estimated from incidence data when an epidemic begins.
Since N and α may be measured, β may be calculated as
β = (r + α)/ N
 Methodology

SIR Model
However, because of incomplete data and under-reporting of cases, this estimate
may not be very accurate. This inaccuracy is even more pronounced for an
outbreak of a previously unknown disease, where early cases are likely to be mis-
diagnosed. Because of the final size relation, estimation of β or R0 is an important
question that has been studied by a variety of approaches. Estimation of the initial
growth rate from data can provide an estimate of the contact rate β. However, this
relation is valid only for the model (2.11) and does not hold for models with
different compartmental structure, such as an exposed period.
 Methodology

SIR Model
If βSo > α, I increases initially to a maximum number of infectives when the
derivative of I is zero, that is, when S = α/β. This maximum is given by

Imax = So + Io – α/β( log So) – α/β + α/β (log α/β) , (2.15)

obtained by substituting S = α/β, I = Imax into (2.13)

 Example

Question
Influenza outbreak in a small town: Suppose a small town with a population
of 10,000 people experiences an outbreak of the flu. At the beginning of the
outbreak, there are 10 people infected, and the rest of the population is
susceptible. how many people will be infected over time at maximum,
assuming that each infected person can transmit the flu to two other people
per day, and the average duration of the infection is five days?
 Example

Answer
In this example, we assume that β = 2/10,000 (since each infected person
can transmit the flu to 2 other people per day out of a total population of
10,000) and γ = 1/5 (since the average duration of the infection is 5 days).
We also assume that the initial conditions are S(0) = 9,990, I(0) = 10, and
R(0) = 0. we can solve this numerically by the formula Imax = So + Io - α
β/( log So) - αβ + αβ (log α/β) and we obtain with approximately 4000
peoples will be infected.
 Conclusion
In the SIR model what is most valuable is the basic reproduction number. We can get
the formulas where the infection will peak and the continuity of the behavior is
dependent on this number (basic reproduction number). The reproduction number
determines everything about what we get in the solution. This model exhibits the basic
features of an epidemic. The infection initially rises, but eventually removal is
dominant, and the infection dies out. The mechanism is that the proportion of
susceptibles decreases until there are too few to maintain the infection. If the basic
reproduction number is moderately larger than one, then the final proportion removed is
large
ADAMA SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
UNIVERSITY
Thank You
By Boaz Tamire