Climate Change

Climate change is not a recent phenomenon; the climate has been changing
from ancient times.
Most of the information about climate changes prior to human history is
obtained through proxy data (Paleoclimatology)
Fossils and inorganic deposits are a good source of information about past
climates
Temperature conditions for the past about 100,000 years have been
estimated through oxygen isotope method.
 Evidences of Past Climates
Ice cores are studied for an analysis of relation of O-18 and O-16
isotopes
When temperatures are high, more of O-18 molecules get evaporated
and deposited in ice sheets
Verves are another important source of information about past
climates. Verves are annual layers of silt in water bodies experiencing
seasonal freezing and thaw cycle
Coarse sediments are not deposited when the water bodies are frozen
Dendrochronology
• It is based on the study of the rings found in the stems of the trees.
• Such records go back to 3000 to 5000 years back.
• Rings are widely spaced during the period of more vigorous growth-
indicating warmer climates and vice-versa.
• Peat bogs are also a means to estimate past climates and such data
provide information for up to 30,000 to 35,000 years ago.
• Fossils are the best indicators of climatic conditions up to a few
thousand years back.
Period of Instrumental Records
• Continuous records of rainfall date back to only about 1700 A.D and
thermometers and barometers also developed in 17th century.
• Regional temperature records began to be maintained from 17th and
18th century
• Recorded data indicate a rising temperature from 1885 to 1940
(about 1 deg. C in winter and about 0.6 deg for the whole year)
• Arctic regions experienced rise of about 3 Deg. From 1917 to 1937
• The trend showed signs of slowing down since 1940 (Global
Dimming)
• Temperatures again started rising since around 1980
Theories of Climate Change

• Hypotheses based on solar variations:

• George Gibson- 1920s suggested changes in solar energy reaching the earth surface
• Sun Spot Cycle
• Astronomical Hypotheses:
• Changes in the angle of the earth’s axis – 22.1 degress to 24.5 deg. Over 41,000
years
• Eccentricity of the orbit- Distance from the sun -96,000 years
• Precession of Equinoxes – Change in time of Aphelion and Perihelion- dates reverse
• Shift of earth on its polar axis- Robert Hook-1686
• Changes in earth’s rotation on its axis .
• First three of these are parts of Milankovich Theory
Atmospheric Hypotheses
• Particulate Matter – Volcanic dust can bring about changes- between
30,000 and 17,000 years ago the temp. fell by about 3 deg. C
• Mount Tambora- Indonesia 1815- 1816 year without summer
• Karakatoa Eruption, 1883, led to red sunsets for months
• Increasing dust in 1940 in N. Hemisphere led to dimming and cooling
• Radiation from nuclear blasts – nuclear winter
• Variations in amount of greenhouse gases- Increasing carbon dioxide
responsible for 1885-1940 warming and present warming- Doubling
of amount of carbon dioxide may raise the global temperature by 2
Deg. C.
Terrestrial Hypotheses
• Shifting of major landmasses in the past (Continental Drift)
• Changes in sea level due to warping of ocean basins may change the
ratio between land and sea.
• Changes in albedo can also affect temperature – a 1 per cent
increase in albedo can lower global temp. by about 2 deg. C.
• Expansion or retreat of ice sheets can affect the albedo.
Global Warming
• Most of the current rise in temperature is considered to be anthropogenic.
Use of fossil fuels and changes in land use are the major causes.
• According to 2014 Report of IPCC global temperature rose by 0.74 Deg C (+ -
0.18 deg C)
• It may rise by 0.3 to 1.7 for lowest emissions and by 2.6 to 4.8 deg for the
highest emissions during the 21st century.
• Increasing concentration of GH gases is the leading cause.
• Years 2016 and 2020 (till Jan 21) were the hottest years
• Water vapour (36 to 70) CO2 (9-26) and Methane and ozone (3-7%) of the
global warming factors.
• Co2 rose to 405 ppm in 2019 from 305 in 1960s and may rise to 550 by end of
the century.
Effects of Global Warming
• Melting of ice caps and retreat of glaciers
• Rise in sea level
• Increased frequency of extreme weather events
• Change in the range of plant and animal species
• Threat to bio-diversity
• Food Security