The Key Stage 3 dip

Myth or reality?

David Pepper
QCA International Unit
DEPS Visiting Research Fellow 30 September 2008
Qualifications and Curriculum Authority

QCA in a nutshell

• QCA maintains and develops the national curriculum and associated

assessments, tests and examinations in England.

2
QCA International Unit

Objectives

• Maintain QCA’s international contribution to the generation, transfer

and exchange of information in education and training.

• Help QCA to strengthen its understanding of how to equip learners

for life in a global society and knowledge economy.
QCA’s INCA website
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• Italy
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• 20 countries worldwide and growing • Korea
• Netherlands
• Informing policy and practice since 1996 • New Zealand
• Northern
Ireland
• A free website for you to use: www.inca.org.uk • Scotland
• Singapore
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• USA
• Wales
MRes dissertation: inspiration

Two INCA reports:

• Learner motivation for 3-19 year olds: an international perspective

• Dips in performance and motivation: a purely English perception?

MRes dissertation:

• From international to national

• From perception to empiricism

• The Key Stage 3 dip: myth or reality?

Central terms

• Definition of Key Stage 3

The phase of the statutory National Curriculum in England intended
for pupils aged 11 to 14 years old (Years 7, 8 and 9).

• Definition of ‘dip’
To undergo a slight decline, especially temporarily; to slope
downwards; to lower or be lowered briefly; or, a momentary sinking.

• Usage of Key Stage 3 dip

Attainment, attitudes or both
No change or a reduction
Year 7 or 8 but not Year 9.

Focus of dissertation
• Dips
• Attainment
• Year 7 and 8.
Structure

MRes dissertation:

• Literature review

• Methodology

• Analysis

• Conclusions

After the deadline:

• Dissemination

• Future work
Literature review

Year 7 (or the year after transfer)

• Several case studies (Galton & Wilcocks, 1983; Pollitt & Taylor, 1999;
Suffolk LEA, 2002; Hargreaves & Galton, 2002; Galton, Grey &
Rudduck, 2003) and a large-scale survey (Stoll et al, 2003).

• They focus on the issue of transfer and find post-transfer attainment

dips/plateaus in both secondary schools and middle schools.

• Post-transfer dips/plateaus in Scotland (Nisbet & Entwhistle, 1969),

the USA (Simmons et al, 1987; Crockett et al, 1989; King Rice, 2001)
and several countries (Whitby & Lord, 2006): different ages.

• Dips/plateaus occur regardless of timing of transfer: discontinuity is

blamed. The management of transfer is the most important factor.
Literature review

Year 8 (or the 2nd year post-transfer)

• Interviews and questionnaires (Galton et al, 2003; Lord & Jones,

2006; Doddington et al, 1999; Rudduck, 1996; Sharp, 1998).

• The focus is on transitions (rather than transfer per se) and their
impact on learner motivation -rather than attainment.

• A few consider Y8 attainment (Suffolk LEA, 2002; Pollitt & Taylor,

1999; NFER, 2005) and find dips/plateaus. Recovery from Y7 in Y8?

• Some countries report a ‘delayed dip’ in the second year post transfer
(Whitby & Lord, 2006). England is not alone.
Literature review

English (all the studies)

• Consistently, about one half of pupils dipped/plateaued in Y7 or the

year post-transfer (Stoll et al, 2003 found two thirds in Y7).

• Re-analysis of NFER, 2005 found nearly two thirds of pupils

dipped/plateaued in Year 8.

Maths (most of the studies)

• Consistently, about one third of pupils dipped/plateaued in Y7 or the

year post-transfer.

• Re-analysis of NFER, 2005 found 58% dipped/plateaued in Year 8.

Literature review

Pupils at risk?

• Lower attainment or an SEN

• Relative age, maturity, adolescence

• Lower socio-economic status

• Ethnicity

• <English> as an additional language

• No clear pattern for gender

Methodology

Gaps in the evidence

Several in-depth, small-scale studies:

• Focused on detail of transfer
• No Year 8 attainment (or no attainment)

Few large surveys:

• Ageing data
• Not England
• Not all three year groups

Fit for purpose but gaps in evidence in relation to KS3 attainment dip.
Methodology

• Approach: quantitative

• Method: large-scale survey

• Instrument: NC & optional tests in English and mathematics

• Measure
Longitudinal: Y6 in 2002, Y7 in 2003, Y8 in 2004, Y9 in 2005
NC Levels (Y6-9) and sub-levels (Y7, Y8)

• Ethical: existing data sets found and access granted

• Sample: upwards of 6000 pupils for most results; 253 schools

• Analytical procedures
Dips and plateaus in Levels

 Dip

Pupils (%) dip Y7 Y8 Y9

English 4.7 11 8.7
Maths 2.3 8/3.5* 2.6/3.5*
*Lower tier/higher tier

 Plateau

Pupils (%) plateau Y7 Y8 Y9

English 51.4 41.3 44.6
Maths 29.8 56.3/31.2* 33.3/44.6*
*Lower tier/higher tier
Dips and plateaus in sub-levels (Year 8)

 Dip

Pupils (%) Y7/8 sub-levels Y7/8 Levels

English 20.5 11
Maths 14.7/5.5 8/3.5*
*Lower tier/higher tier

 Plateau

Pupils (%) Year 8 Y7/8 Levels

English 22.2 41.3
Maths 33.5/31.2 56.3/31.2
*Lower tier/higher tier

More precision halved the plateaus and doubled the dips.

Multiple dips?

Using Levels:

• Less than 1% of all pupils dipped in both Y7 English and Y7 maths

• Less than 1% dipped in Y8 English and Y8 higher tier maths

• 2.5% dipped in Y8 English and Y8 lower tier maths

• Less than 1% dipped in both Y7 and Y8 in English or maths

Pupils tend to dip only once

Recovery?

Recovery refers to pupils who dipped but then regained some or all of
the attainment they lost.

Using levels:

• Those who dipped in Y7 usually recovered in Y8

• Those who dipped in Y8 usually recovered in Y9

• Those who dipped in Y8 had often increased their Level in Y7.

Which pupils dip?

Analytical method
• PLASC variables and middle school variable (all categorical)
• Chi Square test (significance) and Cramer’s V (effect size)

Statistical significant but modest effect sizes:

• Special educational needs*
• Ethnicity (Black and Asian pupils)*
• Socio-economic status (Year 8 only)*

Not statistically significant:

• Middle schools (but notably lower %)*
• Gender (similar % for boys and girls)*
• Relative age
Conclusions

Dip: reality
• A minority of pupils dip a Level
• These pupils usually dip only once and recover quickly
• Sub-levels increased the observed dip in Y8 (Y7? Y9?)
• Year 8 more than Year 7* and English more than maths**
• Some pupils more vulnerable than others in Y7 and Y8 (Y9?)
• Year 9 dip

Plateau: reality
• More pupils plateau (a concern?)
• More Y7 English than maths*
• More Y8 maths than English

Underlying factors?
• School transfer
• Multiple transitions
• Access to resources
• Test validity
Find out more

The Key Stage 3 dip: myth or reality?

• 10,000 word dissertation (KCL)
• 800 word briefing (QCA, DCSF):
http://www.qca.org.uk/libraryAssets/media/KS3_dip_briefing_DP.pdf

Dips in performance and motivation: a purely English perception?

• www.inca.org.uk