WELCOME TO PRESENTATION

Dr. Prashanta Kumar Banerjee

Professor & Director (RDC), BIBM
 Uncertainties in Demand Forecasting

•Data about Past and Present

Markets
•Methods of Forecasting
•Environmental Change
 Issues and Challenges
(Page No. 15-17)

Issue Twelve: As per IFRS 7, when the financial assets

are impaired by credit losses, the entity may record this
impairment in a separate account or may directly
reduce the carrying amount of the assets. In your
opinion, which one is more logical and suitable for banks
in Bangladesh?
Data about past ad preset market
Data about past ad preset market
Lack of Standardization
Few Observations
Influence of Abnormal Factors
Methods of Forecasting
Inabilityto Handle Unquantifiable Factors
Unrealistic Assumptions
 Excessive Data Requirement
 Environmental change
Technological Change
Shift in Governmental Policy
Developments of the International Scene
Discovery of New Sources of Raw
Material
Vagaries of Monsoon
 Coping with Uncertainties

Give the uncertainties I demand forecasting,

adequate efforts, along the following lies, may be
made to cope with uncertainties.
Conduct analysis with data based on uniform and
standard definitions.
In identifying trends, coefficients, and
relationships, ignore the abnormal or out-of-
the-ordinary observations.
 Coping with Uncertainties
Criticallyevaluate the assumptions of the
forecasting methods and choose a method
which is appropriate to the situation.

Adjust the projections derived from

quantitative analysis in the light of
unquantifiable, but significant, influences.
 Coping with Uncertainties
Monitor the environment imaginatively to
identify important changes.

Consider likely alternative scenarios and

their impact on market and competition.

Conduct sensitivity and favorable variations

of the determining factors from their most
likely levels.
GDP at Current market Price

GDP at
Period Current Market Price
1993-94 135412
1994-95 152518
1995-96 166324
1996-97 180701
1997-98 200177
1998-99 219697
1999-00 237086
2000-01 253546
2001-02 273201
GDP at Current market Price
2002-03 300580
2003-04 332973
2004-05 370707
2005-06 415728
2006-07 472477
2007-08 545822
2008-09 614795
2009-10 694324
2010-11 796704
2011-12 918141
GDP at Current market Price
T Y TY T2
1 13 13 1
2 15 30 4
3 16 48 9
4 18 72 16
5 20 100 25
6 21 126 36
7 23 161 49
8 25 200 64
9 27 243 81
10 30 300 100
11 33 363 121
12 37 444 144
13 41 533 169
14 47 658 196
15 54 810 225
16 61 976 256
17 69 1173 289
18 79 1422 324
19 91 1729 361
T = 190 Y = 720 TY = 9401 T = 2470
2

Ṫ =10 Ȳ= 37.89    
 Thanks
for
Patience Hearing