AIR POLLUTION IN INDIA AND ITS ASSOCIATION WITH

RESPIRATORY AILMENTS WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO COVID-19

APARAJITA CHATTOPADHYAY

IIPS
• Why Environment?
• What are the problems in research related to air pollution?
• household air pollution (HOAP) and the burden of AAP ( outdoor) are huge in India.
Such exposure greatly exceeds WHO Air Quality Guideline
• 77% of the population of India ( HOAP) , were exposed to annual mean PM2·5 greater than
40 μg/m3, which is the limit recommended by Air Quality Standards in India ( Lancet 2018).

• India contributed 18·1% of the global population but had 26·2% of the global air pollution
DALYs in 2017. 
 QUESTIONS-

• How far Economy and pollution are related in India? Is it

following the Environmental Kuznets Curve?
• How far the Ambient Air Pollution Impact Health in India?
• Is there any association of pollution and Covid 19?
 INDIA - THE 5 MOST POLLUTED COUNTRY IN 2019,
21 OUT OF THE 30 MOST POLLUTED CITIES WERE IN INDIA. 

Source: IQAir- air quality Index Source: Urban emission

 HOW FAR ECONOMY AND POLLUTION ARE
RELATED IN INDIA
PM10 EMISSION AND GDP
10000
CO2 EMISSION AND GDP
9000 160.0
8000

LAKH MET. TON CO2

140.0
7000
120.0

PM10 μg/m3
6000
100.0
5000
80.0
4000
3000 60.0

2000 40.0
1000 20.0
0
.6 6 8 5 1 0 2 2 5 6 6 5 0 0.0
85 0. 5. 9. 7. 8. 4. 3. 6. 5. 5. 0. 9. 5 2 6 6 4 6 6 6 7 5 6 6 0 2 2
10 11 13 15 18 22 26 31 41 51 61 73 6. 5. 77. 15. 41. 63. 15. 55. 77. 10. 48. 91. 39. 90. 45.
31 34 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8
GDP ‘0000 CRORE
GDP ‘0000 CRORE
LOG LINEAR LOG QUADRATIC LOG CUBIC

Source; Environmental quality in India: Application of environmental Kuznets

curve and Sustainable Human Development Index
Ayan Rudra;  Aparajita Chattopadhyay; Wiley, 2018
 Pollutant WHO Avg limit India Avg (CPCB)
PM 2.5 10 µg/m3 60µg/m3
PM 10 20 µg/m3 100µg/m3
No2 40 µg/m3 80µg/m3
So2 20 µg/m3 24-hour mean 80µg/m3 24-hour mean

SO2 EMISSION AND GDP NO2 EMISSION AND GDP

14.0
30.0
12.0
SO2 μg/m3

25.0
10.0
TOXIC GASES WITH
NO2 μg/m3
20.0
8.0
SIGNIFICANT HEALTH
6.0 15.0 EFFECTS
4.0 10.0

2.0
5.0

0.0
0.0
6

2
5

6
6.

7.

1.

5.

7.

8.

9.

5.
37

57

73

84
31

44

51

64

2
1.

5.

7.

8.

9.

5.
6.

7.
44

64
31

37

51

57

73

84
GDP ‘0000 CRORE
GDP ‘0000 CRORE
 HEALTH EFFECTS ATTRIBUTABLE TO AMBIENT AIR
POLLUTION (AAP)
• In this systematic review, we collected 59 literature with different study designs,

• studies were carried out in different cities of India from January 1st, 1990 to 31st January
2019.
• 59 meta analysis
WHO -Relative Risk(RR)b (95 % CI) per
Pollutants Mortality/Morbidity 10 ug/m3
  Total Mortalityx
1.0074 (1.0062-1.0086)
  Cardiovascular Mortality y 1.008 (1.005-1.018)
  Respiratory Morbidity z 1.012 (1.008-1.037)
PM10 Hospital admission respiratory diseases 1.008 (1.0048-1.0112)

Hospital admission Cardiovascular diseases 1.009 (1.006-1.013)

  Total Mortality x 1.004 (1.003-1.0048)
  Cardiovascular Mortality y 1.008 (1.002-1.012)
  Respiratory Morbidity z 1.01 (1.006-1.014)
SO2 COPD a Morbidity (hospital admission) 1.0044 (1-1.011)
  Cardiovascular Mortality y 1.002 (1-1.004)
NO2 COPD Morbidity (hospital admission) 1.0038 (1.004-1.0094)
 individuals exposed to pollution
are 75% more likely to suffer from
any respiratory disease.

Out of 18 literature reviewed on premature

mortality, most (12 of 18) studies have
statistically significant associations between
AAP exposure and increased premature
mortality risk

Ref: Short and Long Term Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution and Impact on Health in India: A Systematic
Review Rahul Rajak & Aparajita Chattopadhyay, Taylor and Francis, 2019
COVID 19 AND POLLUTION

Pm2.5- before and after lockdown

Is Delhi enjoying better air quality?

A Sikarwar, R Rani, A Chattopadhyay – 2020
No2- before and after lockdown
 IS THERE ANY ASSOCIATION OF POLLUTION
AND COVID 19?
• Literature says:
‘people who have lived with polluted air for decades, air pollution particles may be acting as vehicles for viral
transmission’
‘with deteriorating air quality the chances of lung infection response to any viral infection increases’

Oct 2020: Harvard study :

study does not show that air pollution directly affects an individual’s likelihood of dying from COVID-19 because
individual-level COVID data is not yet publicly available, it does show an association between long term exposure
to air pollution and higher COVID-19 mortality rates.
Oct 2020- Journal of cardiovascular research:
About 15 per cent of deaths worldwide from COVID-19 may be linked to long-term exposure to air pollution, 
EMPIRICAL STUDY : MUMBAI
• First Spike in Slums, second spike in non slum
• Mumbai stands among the topmost districts in : total cases, Case fatality, number of
deaths.
• WHO’s global air pollution database has ranked Mumbai as the fourth most polluted
megacity in the world during 2010-2016 (2018)- Delhi toped.

• the paper addresses the following questions:

• What are the levels of pollution in Mumbai Wards?
• Does pollution favour COVID-19 infection in Mumbai? If so, which are the hotspots?
• Does pollutants act as determinants of COVID-19 fatality when other factors are controlled?

GeoHealth: ( American geophysical union)-Aparajita Chattopadhyay and Subhojit Shaw

 METHODS AND MATERIALS:

• Mumbai’s recent ward wise data on Covid- 19- from BMC

• annual average concentration of SO2, NO2 and PM10 are collated from the Central Pollution Control Board (CBCS) for
a period of 2017-2019
• Kriging, and pollution modelling (Griffith, 1988; Jha, 2011; Wong et al., 2004), is used to estimate the local spatial
variations of the air quality data. Furthermore, GIS Zonal Statistics Mean Tool to estimate the ward wise concentration
• most recent ward wise population of Mumbai 2020, is estimated based on satellite image provided by WorldPop
dataset and cross checked with UNDP projection.
• To understand the health effect of air pollution ( i.e. change in morbidity rate per xx/m 3 change in pollution ) Average
Concentration Response (CR) coefficient of each air pollutant is calculated following method of Patankar & Trivedi,
2011
• To examine the association between COVID-19 death rate and pollutants, OLS, SLM and SEM are used.
 Estimated level of pollutants in Mumbai

Pollutant City Suburb Standard

WHO

PM10 130+ 80+ 20-50

SO2 5 15+ 20

NO2 25 40+ 40
CONCENTRATION OF NO2 AND SO2 IN THE MUMBAI AREA ARE CLOSE TO THE
THRESHOLD

PM10 IS MUCH ABOVE WHO PERMISSIBLE LIMIT.

Although the concentration of PM10 is much higher than the permissible limit in Mumbai the health impact and morbidity
due to PM10 is comparatively lower than other 2 gases .
The maximum CR coefficient related to respiratory illness is due to SO 2 followed by allergic rhinitis caused by NO2.
 HOTSPOTS: GHATKOPAR, VIKROLI, MULUND, KURLA, ANDHERI,
KANDIVILI

Moran’s I: 0.35, p 0.002 Moran’s I: 0.38, p 0.001 Moran’s I: 0.37, p 0.002

 OLS AND SPATIAL REGRESSION MODELS
 
Predictors
COVID-19 Fatality Rate
OLS SLM SEM

       

Population with health impact due to SO2 -0.00045(0.00014) -0.00046 (0.00011) -0.00036 (0.00008)

Population with health impact due to NO2 0.00101***(0.00038) 0.00102***(0.00029) 0.00079***(0.00024)

Population with health impact due to PM10 -0.00976*(0.00460) -0.00974 (0.00349) -0.00876 (0.00276)

Population density / sq.km 0.00116(0.00075) 0.00119**(0.00057) 0.00107**(0.00051)

Number of slums -1.34161(2.62655) -1.66959(2.03174) -1.35085(2.38768)

Number of drains 0.39523**(0.16397) 0.37738**(0.12461) 0.22719**(0.11502)

Number of health facility -0.00615(0.81717) 0.11782(0.62994) 0.63261(0.71667)

Density of roads / sq.km 2.11824(1.0737) 2.04531**(0.81342) 0.94990(0.81112)

Number of police stations 3.74319(2.62076) 4.10434**(2.04953) 3.39332(2.74343)

       

Constant 6.98352(30.9843) 14.5009(24.8804) 26.9782(16.1254)

ρ   -0.116778  

λ     -0.910806

AIC 212.998 214.645 208.737

R2 0.827322 0.830436 0.882551

 KEY TAKEAWAYS:

• Every pollutant has its unique growth curve and thus need pollutant specific strategies to curb
pollution.
• Air pollution has significant role in ill-health in India.
• the population in the suburban part of Mumbai are at a higher risk to respiratory morbidity.

• Concentration of NO2 and SO2 in the mumbai area are close to the threshold;
PM10 is much above WHO permissible limit.
• High-high association of population exposure to specific pollutants and presence of COVID-19
cases are well established in certain wards of eastern, central and western suburbs of Mumbai
• With increase in NO2 exposure, COVID-19 death is significantly associated in the city.
 POSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS:

• stimulating studies published recently

by Fattorini & Regoli, 2020; Ogen, 2020; Zhu et al., 2020 expressed that 78% of deaths due to COVID-19 had occurred in just
five regions in northern Italy and Spain that have the highest concentrations of NO 2.

• Mumbai- Low lying- Western Ghat in East blocks free movement of air- Does it lead to higher concentration of pollutants
especially in Monsoon in suburbs?
• This year Mumbai and its surrounding witnessed very heavy monsoon downpour, leading to waterlogging, poor sanitation,
delayed treatment due to transport bottlenecks, rapid spread of other infections that altogether increasing risk of COVID-19
spread etc. Interesting, our study finds that presence of drain has significantly increased the chances of COVID-19 death that
could be associated with sanitation related problems during monsoon in the city.
• Through empirical evidence with preliminary analysis in India Manoj et al., 2020 link COVID-19 transmission and air
pollution that triggers under moderate-to-high humidity conditions.
 NO2 AND COVID 19:

• NO2 as triggering the COVID-19 spread and its lethality is already well observed in Europe.

• Mumbai and Pune region are well known emission hot spots for NO2 and spread of NO2 up to a
few kilometres over the Arabian Sea in the Mumbai coast is well observed (CPCB, 2010).
• The maximum contribution of No2 is from industry, followed by transport in Mumbai.
 Our findings, within all data limitations, therefore
suggest that air quality is an important element to address
diseases management like Covid-19.