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    The document discusses the HR forecasting process which includes determining HR demand, supply, and the net requirement. It outlines different time horizons for forecasting from short to long run. The outcomes of forecasting can be predictions, projections, scenarios, or contingency plans. Key aspects of the forecasting process include determining replacement needs and changes in staffing levels. The forecast is then used to determine if there is a surplus or shortage of personnel to inform HR programs and strategies.

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    L 5 (The HR forecasting process)

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    The document discusses the HR forecasting process which includes determining HR demand, supply, and the net requirement. It outlines different time horizons for forecasting from short to long run. The outcomes of forecasting can be predictions, projections, scenarios, or contingency plans. Key aspects of the forecasting process include determining replacement needs and changes in staffing levels. The forecast is then used to determine if there is a surplus or shortage of personnel to inform HR programs and strategies.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    10 views9 pages

    L 5 (The HR Forecasting Process)

    Uploaded by

    s
    The document discusses the HR forecasting process which includes determining HR demand, supply, and the net requirement. It outlines different time horizons for forecasting from short to long run. The outcomes of forecasting can be predictions, projections, scenarios, or contingency plans. Key aspects of the forecasting process include determining replacement needs and changes in staffing levels. The forecast is then used to determine if there is a surplus or shortage of personnel to inform HR programs and strategies.

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    of 9

    Lecture 5

    The HR Forecasting Process


    Ascertaining the net requirement of personnel by
    H R Fo re c a sti n g determining the demand and supply of HR

    Rationale
    Transaction based
    1. Reduce HR cost forecasting
    2. Increase organizational
    flexibility Event based
    HR forecasting
    3. Ensures close linkage to the forecasting
    Macro Business forecasting
    4. Ensures organizational Process based
    requirements are forecasting
    considered

    Categories of HR forecasting activities


    • Legal requirements
    • Woman EEO
    • Tribal/minorities designated
    • Disable group
    • Quota members
    • From CEO to shop-floor level
    • Highest attention should be paid
    • Succession planning
    • Success depends on these group

    Specialist/ Managerial
    Technical/
    Personnel and
    categories Executive
    Professional personnel

    • A longer lead time may require to


    recruit.
    • Comprehensive and larger geographic
    search

    Recruits
    • Best fit HR policy
    • Orientation and Socialization
    • Training

    Categories of personnel for forecasting


    • 5 or more years
    • To cover uncertainty
    • Extreme flexible

    • 2 to 5 years Long
    • 1 to 2 years Medium run
    • Operational
    requirement
    run forecast
    Short-run forecast
    • Max 1 year forecast
    • Immediate
    needs
    Current
    forecast

    HR forecasting time horizons


    Outcomes of forecasting

    Prediction
    Projection/Envelop

    Scenarios
    Contingency plan
    Determining net HR requirement
    1. Determining HR demand
    2. Ascertain HR supply
    3. Determine Net HR requirement
    4. Institute HR programs
    Determining HR Demand
    Collect net personnel requirement from sub-unit

    Adjust planned future changes

    Adjust non-productive paid times

    Calculate HR demand for time horizons

    Estimate cost
    Determining net HR requirement
    External supply requirements = Replacement + Change supply components

    Replacement = Hiring to replace all normal losses

    Change supply = Increase or decrease in the overall staffing level

    External supply requirements = Current workforce size X (replacement % + change %)

    Example
    External supply requirements = 1000 (0.11 + 0.07)
    = 110 + 70
    = 180 personnel
    Matching HR demand and supply
    Surplus Shortage
    • Hiring freezes
    • Offer early retirement • Recruit new permanent
    incentives employees
    • Job sharing • Offer incentives to postpone
    retirement
    • Worksharing
    • Rehire retirees part-time
    • Reduce work hours
    • Attempt to reduce turnover
    • Layoffs
    • Work current staff overtime
    • Switch to variable pay plan
    • Redesign job
    • Expand operations
    • Attrition

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