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Financial Markets and Institutions

Economics of Financial Markets


Objectives

• What is the main economic function of a financial market?


• What are mutually beneficial intertemporal exchanges?
• What additional functions are performed by financial markets?
Economics of Financial Markets
Economic Function of a Financial Market
Economic Function of a Financial Market

• The main economic function of a financial market is to increase


the efficiency with which individuals can engage in mutually
beneficial intertemporal exchanges with other individuals.
Economic Function of a Financial Market
Divergence…

• An intertemporal exchange is the one in which two sides of


the exchange occur at different times. For example, Person A
will give something of value to Person B at time 0 in exchange for a
commitment by Person B to give something of value to Person A at
a later time. In some cases, Person B will promise to deliver things
of value at several future times.
Economic Function of a Financial Market
Divergence…

• An essential property of an intertemporal exchange is the risk that


Person B will be unable to make the promised delivery or will
refuse to do so.
• NOTE: Person B may not be able to make promised delivery because his
promise may depend on an outcome (such as the size of a crop) that will
not be known until some future time.
Economics of Financial Markets
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges

• Individuals who wish to trade in financial markets make two types


of intertemporal trade-offs. The first one involves the trade-off
between current consumption and producing capital goods
(Trade-Off 1), while the second one involves the trade-off created
by the interplay of risk and expected return (Trade-Off 2).
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Divergence…

• A capital good is a produced good that can be used as an input for


future production. Capital goods can be tangible (such as a
railroad locomotive) or intangible (such as a computer language).
• A society increases its standard of living over time through the
accumulation of capital goods.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges

• Both of these trade-offs maximize the lifetime satisfaction of


individuals by allowing individuals to create mutually beneficial
exchanges. However, mutually beneficial exchange requires that
individuals should differ in their willingness to tolerate
uncertainty.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges

• In order to understand why the difference in attitude towards risk


can lead to mutually beneficial exchange, consider the following
example.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Example 1

• Ms. Lyons and Ms. Clyde jointly provide the capital goods for an
enterprise, which produces an income of either $60 or $140 in any
given year. These two outcomes are equally likely, and the outcome
for any year is independent of the outcomes for all previous years.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Example 1

• Consequently, the average annual income from the capital good is


$100 [=(0.5*60) + (0.5*140)].
• If the two women share the annual income equally, each woman’s
average annual income will be $50.
• Furthermore, in any given year, the income of each women will be
either $30 or $70, with each possibility being equally likely.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Example 1

• If Ms. Lyons is sufficiently averse to uncertainty, she will prefer a


guaranteed annual income of $35 to an income that fluctuates
unpredictably between $30 and $70.
• That is, Ms. Lyons will trade away $15 of her average income in
exchange for relief from uncertain fluctuations in that income.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Example 1

• Ms. Clyde, on the other hand, might be willing to accept an


increase in the unpredictable fluctuation of her income in
exchange for a sufficiently large increase in her average income.
• Specifically, Ms. Clyde might prefer an income that fluctuates
unpredictably between $25 and $105 (which would mean an
average of $65 per year) to an income that fluctuates
unpredictably between $30 and $70 (which would mean an
average of $50 per year).
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Example 1

• If the two women’s attitudes toward uncertainty are as we have


described them, these women can have a mutually beneficial
exchange.
• In exchange for a $15 increase in her own average income, Ms.
Clyde will insulate Ms. Lyons against the uncertain
fluctuations in her income.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Divergence…

• In addition to the trade-offs explained above, individuals also face


another type of trade-off in which they decide between how to use
the resources that they have reserved (this year) to support
current consumption. These resources must be allocated among
the production of current goods and services.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Divergence…

• In its simplest form, this is the problem of maximizing utility by


allocating a fixed level of current income between the purchases of
Goods X and Y.
• This kind of trade-off is not an intertemporal allocation, and thus it
does not involve financial markets.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Divergence…

• This trade-off is, generally, studied under the Theory of Consumer


Behavior.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges

• Financial markets promote the following three kinds of


intertemporal exchanges:
• Intertemporal Exchange 1: Mutually beneficial exchanges between
current and future consumption that do not involve net capital
accumulation for the economy
• Intertemporal Exchange 2: Mutually beneficial exchanges between
current and future consumption that do involve net capital accumulation
for the economy
• Intertemporal Exchange 3: Mutually beneficial exchanges of claims to
uncertain future outcomes
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Intertemporal Exchange 1

• In order to understand Intertemporal Exchange 1, consider the


following example. The example illustrates the case in which the
two persons exchange claims to current and future consumption
without increasing the stock of capital goods in the economy.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Intertemporal Exchange 1

• Assume that Mr. Black and Mr. Green are employed. Each man’s
income for the current year is the value of his contribution to the
production of goods and services this year.
• Each man’s income entitles him to remove a volume of goods and
services from the economy that is equal in value to what he
produced during the year.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Divergence…

• Economists define consumption as the removal of goods and


services from the business sector by households.
• If every person spent his entire income every year, the economy
would not be able to accumulate any capital goods in the business
sector. Therefore, savings is very important for the economy that
wants to grow.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Intertemporal Exchange 1

• Now suppose that Mr. Black wants to spend $x more than his
current income (during this year).
• That is, he wants to remove a volume of goods and services from
the business sector whose value exceeds by $x the value of what
he produced during the current year.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Intertemporal Exchange 1

• If Mr. Black is to consume more than what he produced during this


year, someone else must finance this “excess” consumption by
consuming a volume of goods and services whose value is $x less
than what he produced during this year.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Intertemporal Exchange 1

• Suppose that Mr. Green agrees to do this, in exchange for the right
to consume next year a volume of goods and services whose value
exceeds the value of what he will produce next year. Mr. Black is
now a borrower and Mr. Green is a lender.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Intertemporal Exchange 1

• Typically, the agreement requires the borrower to repay the lender


with interest. For example, in exchange for a loan equal to $x, Mr.
Black will repay $y ($y > $x) to Mr. Green next year.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Intertemporal Exchange 1

• Both Mr. Black and Mr. Green can increase their levels of lifetime
utility by undertaking this mutually beneficial exchange.
• Mr. Black gains utility by reducing his consumption next year by $y
and increasing his current consumption by $x. Were this not so,
Mr. Black would not have agreed to the exchange.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Intertemporal Exchange 1

• Similarly, Mr. Green gains utility by reducing his current


consumption by $x and increasing his consumption next year by
$y.
• Both men gain utility because they are willing to substitute
between current and future consumption at different rates.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Intertemporal Exchange 1

• In a numerical setting (using hypothetical numbers), current


example would assume that Mr. Black is willing to decrease the
rate of his consumption next year by as much as $125 in exchange
for increasing his rate of current consumption by $100.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Intertemporal Exchange 1

• While, Mr. Green’s present allocation between current and future


consumption is such that he will decrease his current rate of
consumption by $100 in exchange for an increase in his rate of
future consumption (during the next year) by at least $115.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Intertemporal Exchange 1

• The hypothetical numbers suggest that Mr. Black is willing to


borrow at rates of interest up to 25%, and Mr. Green is willing to
lend at rates of interest no less than 15%.
• As a result of this difference in borrowing and lending rates, the
two men can construct a mutually beneficial exchange.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Intertemporal Exchange 2

• In the preceding discussion, Mr. Green is a lender because he


finances Mr. Black’s “excess” consumption.
• There is another possibility for Mr. Green to be a lender. If Mr.
Green consumes less than his current income, he can finance the
accumulation of capital goods in the production sector.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Intertemporal Exchange 2

• If Mr. Green spends less than his current income, the economy can
re-allocate resources out of the production of goods and services
intended for households and into the production of capital goods,
such as railroad locomotives and computer languages.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Intertemporal Exchange 2

• By accumulating these capital goods in the production sector, the


economy can expand its ability to produce goods and services in
the future, including goods and services intended for households.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Intertemporal Exchange 2

• We argue that if Mr. Green’s saving enables the economy to


accumulate capital goods, then Mr. Green can be repaid out of the
net increase in future production that the expanded stock of
capital goods will make possible.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Intertemporal Exchange 3

• Intertemporal allocations always involve uncertainty because the


future is uncertain. In the following slides, we present a simple
example of how two persons, who differ in their willingness to
tolerate uncertainty, can construct a mutually beneficial exchange.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Intertemporal Exchange 3

• Assume that Ms. Tall and Ms. Short operate adjacent farms that are
identical in all respects.
• The output of corn on each farm is equal to either 800 tons or
1200 tons, depending on whether nature is beneficial or
detrimental that year.
• The state of nature for any particular year is unpredictable.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Intertemporal Exchange 3

• Over the longer run, each of the two states occurs with a
probability equal to 50%. Therefore, each woman’s annual product
fluctuates unpredictably between 800 and 1200 tons of corn. Their
average annual product is 1000 tons [=(0.5*800) + (0.5*1200)] of
corn.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Intertemporal Exchange 3

• The two women differ in their willingness to tolerate uncertainty.


Ms. Tall is risk averse. She prefers to have a guaranteed annual
product of 900 tons of corn, rather than unpredictable fluctuations
between 800 and 1200 tons of corn.
• Therefore, if Ms. Tall is guaranteed 900 tons of corn each year, she
will accept a decrease of 100 tons of corn in her average annual
product.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Intertemporal Exchange 3

• Ms. Short is risk preferring. She will accept an increase in the


range over which her product fluctuates, if she can gain a
sufficiently large increase in the average level of her product.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Intertemporal Exchange 3

• Ms. Tall and Ms. Short construct the following mutually beneficial
exchange based on the difference in their attitudes toward
uncertainty: they combine their farms into a single firm.
• In a year in which nature is beneficial, each farm will produce
1200 tons of corn, so that output of the firm will be 2400 tons.
When nature is detrimental, each farm will produce only 800 tons,
and the output of the firm will be 1600 tons.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Intertemporal Exchange 3

• The risk-averse Ms. Tall will hold a contractual claim: she will
receive 900 tons of corn each year regardless of the state of nature.
• Ms. Short will absorb the vagaries of nature by holding a residual
claim: each year she will receive whatever is left over from the
aggregate output after Ms. Tall is paid her contractual 900 tons.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Intertemporal Exchange 3

• Therefore, Ms. Short’s annual income will fluctuate unpredictably


between 700 tons and 1500 tons (resulting in average annual
income of 1100 tons).
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Intertemporal Exchange 3

• In summary, the risk-averse Ms. Tall will reduce the level of her
average annual income from 1000 tons to 900 tons, in exchange
for being insulated from unpredictable fluctuations in her income.
• While, the risk-preferring Ms. Short will accept an increase in the
range over which her annual income will fluctuate, in exchange for
an increase in the average level of her income.
Mutually Beneficial Intertemporal Exchanges
Intertemporal Exchange 3

• Financial markets facilitate these exchanges by enabling firms to


offer different kinds of securities. The contractual claim that Ms.
Tall holds is similar to a bond, while the residual claim that Ms.
Short holds is similar to a common stock.
Economics of Financial Markets
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Additional Functions of Financial Markets

• In addition to helping in intertemporal exchanges, financial


markets also perform certain other functions. Most important of
them are:
• Price Discovery
• Liquidity
• Transaction Cost Reduction
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Price Discovery

• Price discovery means that the interactions of buyers and sellers


in a financial market determine the price of traded asset.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Price Discovery

• Given that price is a function of required return, this process also


enables the identification of returns that participants in a financial
market demand in order to buy a financial instrument.
• Funds will flow to those borrowers that offer the highest return to
lenders for a given level of risk.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Divergence…

• Price of any asset is a function of required return (r), expected


cash flows (D) and growth in expected cash flows:.
D1
P0 
r  g 
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Liquidity

• The liquidity of an asset is a measure of the increase in the cost


that one would incur as a consequence of increasing either the size
of a transaction in that asset or the speed at which the investor
wants to conclude the transaction.
• A highly liquid asset is one for which the price at which the
asset can be bought or sold is little affected by increases in the
speed or the size of the transaction.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Liquidity: Example 1

• A house is a relatively illiquid asset: its price depends on the speed


with which the seller or the buyer wants to conclude the sale.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Liquidity: Example 1

• A realtor might advise a homeowner that she can expect to sell the
house for a price between $115000 and $120000 if the
homeowner is willing to wait for several weeks while prospective
buyers canvass the market, inspect the house, obtain an engineer’s
report on the house, arrange for financing, and have their
attorneys inspect the title to the property.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Liquidity: Example 1

• A homeowner can sell her house more quickly, but only if she
accepts a price that is low enough to induce a prospective buyer to
forego collecting the information that would reduce the risks
involved in purchasing her home.
• One could probably sell his home within a day, for cash, by
accepting a price that is 20% less than what the owner could get if
he were willing to leave the house on the market for several weeks.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Liquidity: Example 1

• In fact, if the owner were willing to accept a sufficiently low price,


a realtor would probably purchase the home immediately for cash,
and then put it on the market for resale.
• Similarly, if a person insists on purchasing a home immediately, he
or she can do so by offering to pay sufficiently more than the
asking price.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Liquidity: Example 2

• Unlike a house, the shares of IBM common stock are quite liquid.
The prices at which an investor can buy or sell a share of IBM stock
does not depend on the speed of the transaction.
• One reason for this is that shares of IBM common stock are
standardized. Any share is a perfect substitute for any other share,
just as any five-dollar bill is interchangeable with any other five-
dollar bill. No one is interested in inspecting a particular share of
IBM as a condition of purchasing it.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Liquidity: Example 2

• Another reason is that the shares of IBM common stock are


actively traded on the New York Stock Exchange.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Liquidity: Example 2

• During the hours that the market is open, dealers in IBM common
stock announce a bid price at which they will purchase shares of
IBM, and an ask price at which they will sell shares of IBM. For
instance, a dealer’s bid price can be $80.25, and his ask price can
be $80.75.
• In this case, any investor can immediately sell a share of IBM for
$80.25 to the dealer or purchase a share of IBM for $80.75 from
him.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Liquidity: Example 2

• An important question that arises here is: What would happen if


the investor wants to purchase or sell 800000 shares
immediately?
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Liquidity: Example 2

• An attempt to purchase a large number of shares immediately


would probably drive the dealer’s prices up.
• Similarly, an attempt to sell a large number of shares immediately
would drive the dealer’s prices down.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Liquidity: Example 2

• We may conclude that small quantities of IBM common stock are


highly liquid: the price of the asset will not be affected by the
speed at which the transaction is conducted. However, as the size
of the transaction increases, the liquidity of the asset decreases.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Divergence…

• A dealer in any good provides a service of predictable immediacy


by enabling persons to buy or sell that good without notice. To
provide this service, the dealer must maintain a stock of the good
in question and a stock of money (or access to credit).
• Dealers in IBM stock on an organized exchange are no exception. If
their inventories of IBM stock are depleted, they must replenish
them or risk being unable to accommodate investors who wish to
purchase shares of IBM immediately.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Divergence…

• Dealers can replenish their inventories of IBM stock by


simultaneously raising their bid and ask prices. Raising the bid
price will induce some investors to sell larger quantities of IBM
shares to a dealer, or sell given quantities sooner, than these
investors would otherwise do.
• Similarly, raising the ask price will induce investors who would
otherwise purchase shares of IBM from the dealer to do so in
smaller quantities or at lower speeds.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Liquidity

• There are two reasons why liquidity matters.


• One reason is that intertemporal exchanges involve claims on future
payoffs, and the future is uncertain.
• The second reason is that some investment projects require large
infusions of resources at the outset, and thereafter generate very long
sequences of relatively small payments.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Liquidity

• The more liquidity financial markets provide, the larger the


set of mutually beneficial intertemporal exchanges that
individuals can conduct.
• Therefore, greater liquidity in financial securities increases the
opportunities for individuals to increase their levels of lifetime
utility.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Liquidity

• In order to understand this, consider a hypothetical company – the


Mosquito Point Barge Company. Assume that the company wants
to purchase a new tugboat. With the new tugboat, the company
can offer faster and more reliable service, and thus obtain higher
profits.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Liquidity

• However, the company does not have sufficient funds of its own to
purchase the new tugboat.
• Mr. Apple is willing to finance the Mosquito Point Barge
Company’s investment project. In order to do so, he will obtain a
financial security issued by the company.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Liquidity

• Mr. Apple, however, face one source of uncertainty. He has aging


parents. They might need someone to take care of them. Thus, Mr.
Apple might want to purchase fulltime care for them on relatively
short notice.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Liquidity

• The more liquid the financial security offered by the Mosquito


Point Barge Company, the lower the cost that Mr. Apple will incur
if he decides to sell the security on short notice. Therefore, the
more liquid the security, the more easily the company can finance
its project by inducing investors like Mr. Apple.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Liquidity: Example 3

• The Spring Lake Railroad wants to build a tunnel. The tunnel will
enable the railroad to move freight trains more quickly between
two major cities and thus generate a relatively small increase in
profit each year. The tunnel will be extremely expensive to build,
but it will last indefinitely with little maintenance. The railroad
cannot finance the construction of the tunnel with its own funds.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Liquidity: Example 3

• No investor plans to live long enough to justify helping to finance


the tunnel in exchange for a right to receive an indefinitely long
sequence of relatively small payments.
• But if the investors can obtain financial securities, each investor
can hold the security for some number of years, then sell it to a
younger investor. The older investor will sell to the younger
investor the right to receive the remaining payments that the
tunnel will generate.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Liquidity: Example 3

• By purchasing the security, the younger investor enables the older


investor to withdraw her investment. The more liquid the security
offered by the railroad, the greater the extent to which individuals
can increase their levels of lifetime utility by making intertemporal
exchanges.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Transaction Cost Reduction

• An important way in which financial markets assist individuals in


making intertemporal exchanges is by reducing transaction costs.
• The term transaction costs is broadly defined to include all those
costs that individuals incur to make exchanges.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Transaction Cost Reduction

• In general, one can classify costs associated with transacting into


two types:
• Search Costs
• Information Costs
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Transaction Cost Reduction

• Search costs fall into two categories:


• Explicit Costs: Explicit costs include expenses that may be needed to
advertise one’s intention to sell or purchase a financial instrument.
• Implicit Costs: Implicit costs include the value of time spent in locating a
counterparty to the transaction.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Transaction Cost Reduction

• Information costs are costs associated with assessing a financial


instrument’s investment attributes. In an efficient market, prices
reflect the aggregate information collected by all market
participants.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Transaction Cost Reduction

• Financial markets reduce these costs by providing easy access to a


central location at which individuals can trade standardized
securities.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Transaction Cost Reduction

• Two individuals can make a mutually beneficial exchange only if


they have different preferences (such as willingness to tolerate
uncertainty).
• But these individuals must first find each other, and then they
must agree on the terms of the exchange. These terms can be quite
complex (requiring significant skills) if the exchange is an
intertemporal one.
Additional Functions of Financial Markets
Transaction Cost Reduction

• Financial securities are usually traded on exchanges. Associated


with the exchanges on which these securities are traded are
clearinghouses which guarantee that the investors who trade in
these securities will meet their obligations.
• By insuring individual investors against the risk of default by other
investors, the clearinghouses increase the attractiveness of these
securities as the basis for mutually beneficial exchanges.
Economics of Financial Markets
Problems
Problem 1

• Mr. Block’s potato farm produces between 500 and 800 tons of
potatoes each year if there is bad weather, and between 700 and
1000 tons each year if there is good weather. The farm has several
investors who together own a bond that entitles them to receive
600 tons of potatoes each year. Today there is 0.50 probability that
weather will be good next year. If tomorrow that probability is
changed to 0.40 for the succeeding year, what will happen to the
price for which the investors could sell their bond?
Problem 2

• ABC Furniture has been struggling to get customers into its store.
In an attempt to increase sales, the firm has advertised that
interest-free payments on furniture are not due until one year
after the furniture is purchased. Under what condition would this
be a mutually beneficial exchange between ABC Furniture and
prospective new customers?
Problem 3

• Mr. Brown wants to increase his current consumption by $100.


The current interest rate paid by a bank for deposits is 10%, and
the bank is willing to lend at 15%. If Mr. Brown can guarantee that
he will repay a loan that he might obtain from Mr. Green, is it
economically efficient for Mr. Green to keep $100 in the bank?
Problem 4

• Ms. White and Ms. Black own farms next to each other. When the
weather is good, each farm produces 2000 tons of apples per year.
When the weather is bad, each farm produces 1000 tons per year.
Ms. White is risk-averse. Ms. Black is willing to accept additional
risk in exchange for a sufficient increase in her average rate of
return.
Problem 4

• If good and bad weather occur with equal probability, and if Ms.
White will accept a guaranteed return of 1000 apples per year, can
the two women effect a mutually beneficial exchange? What type
of claim would each woman hold?
Economics of Financial Markets
References
References

• Bradfield, J., (2007). Chapter 1 (The Economics of Financial


Markets). Introduction to the Economics of Financial Markets,
Oxford University Press.

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